Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Economic Fear, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Tech Sector Optimism


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 23.16 -2.69%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +36.36%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -33.08%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -62.77%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 105.66 bps -.51%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 122.50 bps +2.70%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 154.66 bps +3.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 255.53 bps +2.61%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 +1 bp
  • TED Spread 17.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% unch.
  • Yield Curve 214.0 +2 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $141.80/Metric Tonne -.07%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.30 +3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67% +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Tech, Ag, Biotech and Medical long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the S&P 500 trades near session highs and above its 50-day moving average despite a weaker Beige Book and ongoing eurozone worries. On the positive side, Road&Rail, Education, Biotech, Bank, Disk Drive, Steel, Oil Service and Coal shares are especially strong, rising 1.75%+. (XLF) has outperformed throughout the day. Copper is rising +.56% and Lumber is jumping +4.6%. Moreover, the 10-year yield is rising +6 bps to 2.65%. Weekly retail sales rose +3.0% this week versus a +2.8% gain the prior week. The European Investment Grade CDS Index is dropping -2.35% to 100.91 bps. The Spain sovereign cds is down -2.35% to 234.72 bps. On the negative side, Medical Equipment, Utility and Gold shares are down slightly on the day. The ongoing rises in some key cds indices remain a negative. One of my longs, (AAPL), is beginning to gain upside traction which bodes well for the Nasdaq. I still see substantial upside in the shares from current levels. Another one of my longs, (GMCR), is poised to hit a new record high after announcing a price increase. I still see substantial upside in these shares, as well. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less economic fear, tech sector optimism, bargain-hunting and buyout speculation.

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