Monday, June 16, 2014

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Iraq Turmoil/Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.62 +3.61%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.24 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.04 -8.35%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.94 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .70 -7.89%
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 +97.29% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.30 +.90%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.37 +3.39%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 29.73 +5.05%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 78.11 +.90%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 254.21 +3.17%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.67 -1.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 214.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $89.0/Metric Tonne -2.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.40 +4.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.70 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +27 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

1 comment:

theyenguy said...


In Monday June 16, 2014, trading the great unwinding of world central bank stimulus picked up steam as Middle East geopolitical tensions drove Gulf States, MES, Turkey, TUR, Egypt, EGPT, Russia, RSX, ERUS, Poland, EPOL, and Developing Europe, ESR, lower. South Africa, EZA, traded lower. Philippines, EPHE, and Indonesia, IDX, IDXJ, traded lower as Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, lower. India, INP, SCIN, traded lower as the currency traders called the India Rupe, ICN. The Argentine stock market, ARGT, has literally started to crash. Resorts and Casinos, BJK, traded lower.


Dividends Excluding Financials, DTN, Energy Partnerships, MLPJ, AMJ, EMLP, Global Integrated Energy, IPW, Energy Production, XOP, such as FANG, WLL, CLR, EOG, CRZO, PXD, XEC, COP, NBL, BCEI, Energy Service, OIH, Semiconductors, SOXX, and Medical Devices, IHI, rose to a new all time highs. Utilities, XLU, traded higher, but remain below their recent highs. Gulf Dividends, GULF, traded lower.

Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds, EMLC, Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, and Emerging Market Corporate Bonds, EMCD, traded lower, as bond vigilantes call the Emerging Market Interest Rates higher.