Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • East Ukraine Clashes Persist as Gas Talks Progress. Clashes in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk province between separatists and the army left at least a dozen people dead, while the Ukrainian and Russian governments made progress in talks over their gas dispute. A blast in central Luhansk killed seven people, the local health service said. Rebels initially said it was an air strike, which the government denied. Earlier yesterday, about 500 insurgents attacked the border guard headquarters in Luhansk, and the guard service said five of its personnel were killed as they fought back.
  • D-Day Beach Warmth Belies Tensions in U.S.-France Ties. France is selling weapons to Russia in defiance of American efforts to isolate President Vladimir Putin. The U.S. is preparing to slap France’s largest bank with a fine that could top $10 billion. French government ministers have sought to derail General Electric Co. (GE)’s bid for France’s top energy-equipment maker
  • Vietnamese and Chinese Ships Clash Again. (video)
  • Asian Stocks Extend Six-Month High on China Manufacturing. Asian stocks rose, extending a six-month high, after a gauge for China’s services industry increased amid optimism a separate report on manufacturing will add to signs the world’s second-largest economy is rebounding. Rio Tinto Group (RIO), the world’s second-biggest miner that gets 31 percent of sales from China, added 1.3 percent in Sydney. KCC Corp. jumped 10 percent in Seoul after unit Samsung Everland Inc. announced plans for an initial public offering. Daio Paper Corp. slumped 5.9 percent in Tokyo as the maker of packaging materials said it will raise as much as 22.4 billion yen in a share sale. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 142.83 as of 9:19 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets open in Hong Kong and China.
  • Europe’s Power Supply at Risk From Investment Dearth, IEA Says. Europe is in jeopardy of running short of power because wholesale electricity prices are too low to encourage spending on new thermal plants, according to the International Energy Agency. The region needs more than $2 trillion in power-industry investment by 2035 and about 100 gigawatts of new thermal capacity in the decade to 2025, the Paris-based IEA said today in its World Energy Investment Outlook. Electricity prices are more than 20 percent below the level necessary to spur investment, according to the adviser to 29 nations. One gigawatt is enough to power about 2 million European homes.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Hedge-Fund World's One-Man Cash Machine. David Abrams Built His Fortune Effectively Going It Alone. In the Back Bay neighborhood of Boston, one man is building a moneymaking machine that rivals some of the hedge-fund industry's biggest names. Calls to his office go unreturned even from those eager to fork over eight-figure sums, potential investors say. One industry veteran referred to him as "a unicorn," as few people have ever seen him. The hedge-fund manager, David Abrams, has personally become a billionaire, and... 
  • Secondary Sales Squeeze Investors. Slide in Technology, Health-Care Stocks Has Cooled Demand for Follow-On Sales. A gold rush in public-company stock offerings has failed to pan out for many investors. The recent collapse of highflying technology and health-care stocks has stung buyers who paid steep prices for shares sold by the companies earlier this year in a surge of deals known as follow-on offerings. That has cooled demand for the sales,... 
  • Hospitals' Prices for Common Services on the Rise. Vascular and Chest-Pain Treatments Show Some of Biggest Upticks. Federal data released Monday show an increase in the average price hospitals charge to treat common conditions, with vascular procedures and chest-pain treatment showing some of biggest upticks. The numbers from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services include 2012 prices at 3,376 hospitals for the 100 most-common inpatient stays by Medicare patients. It is the second year the agency has released such data, and it...
Fox News: 
  • Lawmakers raise eyebrows at Carney claim notifying Congress about Bergdahl swap 'not an option'. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney on Monday defended the president's decision to green-light the controversial trade of five Guantanamo prisoners for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl without giving Congress a heads-up, as lawmakers voiced concern the president broke the law. Lawmakers have claimed the administration ignored the law by failing to give a 30-day notice to Congress about moving detainees.
  • Coal-state lawmakers rally against power plant emissions crackdown. Coal-state lawmakers, accusing President Obama of using a back door to impose strict emissions limits on power plants, are rallying to slam that door shut -- claiming the plan would cost jobs and jack up electric bills. In Kentucky, West Virginia, and other states that rely on coal to fuel their own economies -- and that help generate power for everybody else -- officials vowed Monday to introduce legislation halting the newly announced EPA plan.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
  • Obama creates task force on children who enter U.S. illegally. President Barack Obama established an interagency group on Monday to handle the growing influx of children coming to the United States illegally without parents or relatives accompanying them. In a memo that describes an "urgent humanitarian situation," Obama has put the Federal Emergency Management Agency in charge of coordinating humanitarian relief to the children, including housing, care, medical treatment and transportation. The Obama administration estimates that about 60,000 "unaccompanied minors" - children under 18 - will enter the United States illegally this year. It projects that number to grow to nearly 130,000 next year.
  • U.S. commodity ETPs see net $4 bln outflow through May -Lipper data.
Telegraph:
FAZ:
  • ECB Rate Cut Would Be 'Rather Cosmetic,' Stark Writes. Possible interest rate cut by .1-.15 ppts would have little impact as rate tool has been exhausted, former ECB chief economist Juergen Stark writes. No investment decision would depend on such a small rate change, making the step "rather cosmetic in nature." Euro exchange rate is "certainly not" a reason to further loosen monetary policy as FX rate is only relevant to monetary policy if it has significant impact on price developments. Euro-zone inflation of .7% "means price stability," all other interpretations are misleading. Monetary policy focused on medium term should ride out the current trough in inflation rather than stoke expectations of quantitative easing.
Hong Kong Oriental Daily:
  • Carson Block Says Chinese Internet Stocks High Risks. Block is most concerned with Chinese internet stocks among may industries, citing an interview with the founder of Muddy Waters. Block says even if the financials of Chinese internet stocks are accurate, the industry's corporations do have bubbles and the VIE system contains potential risks.
Evening Recommendations
Jefferies:
  • Rated (AMAT) Buy, target $28.
  • Rated (LRCX) Buy, target $75.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 79.0 +.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.26%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.02%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DG)/.73
  • (GIII)/-.15
  • (ABM)/.40
  • (MFRM)/.35
  • (AMWD)/.40
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for April are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.1% gain in March.
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for June is estimated to rise to 46.8 from 45.8 in May.
Afternoon
  • Total Vehicle Sales for May are estimated to rise to 16.1M versus 15.98M in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (FFIN) 2-for-1
  • (AAPL) 7-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's George speaking, Australia gdp report, RBA rate decision, weekly US retail sales reports, ISM New York, Stephens Investment Conference, BofA Tech Conference and the Keefe Bruyette Mortgage Finance Conference could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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