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Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:42 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Islamic State Talked of Entering U.S. Through Mexico. Islamic State extremists have discussed infiltrating the U.S. through its southern border with Mexico, a U.S. official said. Francis Taylor, under secretary for intelligence and analysis at the Department of Homeland Security, told a Senate committee today that the Sunni militants have been tracked discussing the idea on social-media sites such as Twitter Inc. (TWTR) “There have been Twitter and social-media exchanges among ISIL adherents across the globe speaking about that as a possibility,” Taylor said in response to a question from Senator John McCain, an Arizona Republican. Islamic State is also known by the acronyms ISIL and ISIS.
  • British Business Leaders Join Last-Ditch Effort to Save the U.K. Some of Britain’s best-known companies, including BP Plc (BP/), Standard Life Plc and Kingfisher Plc (KGF), made their strongest intervention yet in the battle against Scottish independence, lending support to the efforts of Prime Minister David Cameron to save the union. Ian Cheshire, chief executive officer of retailer Kingfisher, which employs 3,000 people in Scotland, urged voters not to make a mistake in a “once-in-a-lifetime decision,” arguing that independence would mean higher prices and lower investment. He predicted that other chief executives will make similar statements ahead of the vote on Sept. 18.
  • EU Frets Over Russia Sanctions Amid Fragile Ukraine Truce. European Union nations are struggling to agree on a trigger for extra sanctions against Russia over its encroachment in Ukraine as a cease-fire and troop withdrawal bolster the case for holding off. EU ambassadors are due to resume deliberations on the matter today in Brussels after failing to reach a verdict yesterday. The 28-nation bloc on Sept. 8 put on hold for at least a “few days” a second package of economic penalties to assess the viability of the truce without risking further trade retaliation by the Kremlin.
  • Japan Leads Asian Stock Gains as Kiwi Retreats With Wheat. Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s Topix (TPX) index extending a six-year high as the yen held losses. New Zealand’s dollar fell after the central bank said it was still unjustifiably strong, while wheat extended declines. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent by 9:51 a.m. in Tokyo, with the Topix up 0.4 percent in a fourth day of gains.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • U.S. Will Lead Coalition Against Islamic State, Obama Says. President Is Authorizing Start of Airstrikes in Syria, Expanding Bombing Campaign in Iraq. President Barack Obama is authorizing the start of airstrikes in Syria and expanding the monthlong bombing campaign in Iraq to "degrade and ultimately destroy" Islamist militants who recently beheaded two Americans, he told the nation Wednesday evening. The decisions, detailed in a prime-time address on the eve of the 13th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, would considerably deepen U.S. military involvement in the Middle East and mark an acknowledgment by Mr. Obama that the intensity of the...
  • Live Scrolling Twitter Chatter: President Obama Speaks on ISIS Strategy.
  • Washington Trading Probe Broadens to Hedge Funds. SEC Examines Communications Between Investors and Height Securities After Alert on Health-Insurance Policy Shift.
  • Regulators Weighing New Rules for Private Trading Venues. Regulators Also Looking at Registration for Algorithmic Trading Developers. Market regulators are considering imposing additional steps to require greater transparency and disclosures by private trading platforms and heightened oversight of computerized trading strategies. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority will weigh a new set of rules at its Sept. 19 meeting, including a proposal that would require trading platforms, including so-called dark pools, to provide additional details about buy...
  • A New Threat Grows Amid Shades of 9/11. The nation remains largely unaware of the potential for disaster from cyberattacks. 
Fox News:
  • Obama authorizing US airstrikes in Syria. President Obama is authorizing U.S. airstrikes in Syria, senior administration officials say, as the president used a prime-time address to the nation Wednesday to call for a comprehensive campaign to wipe out Islamic State terrorists “wherever they exist.”
Zero Hedge: 
  • How The China Boom Unravels: One Person At A Time.
  • Why Rates Will Stay Low (Or What Happens When You Cry "Recovery" For 5 Years In A Row).
  • On The Cusp Of Exposing The Full Iceberg.
  • Fear Of Terror Attack Soars to 9/11 High.
  • For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery.
  • Deutsche Bank: The Bubble Must Go On To Sustain The "Current Global Financial System".
  • What Petrodollar: Russia, China To Create SWIFT Alternative.
  • The Era Of Widespread Biometric Indentification And Microchip Implants Is Here.
Business Insider:
  • Ebola Fears Hit Australia.
NY Times:
  • Short-Seller Carson Block Says He’s Wary of Alibaba. In the world of the short-seller Carson Block, any Chinese company could be a fraud. Even Alibaba. “If Alibaba wanted to defraud investors, it absolutely could,” Mr. Block, the founder of Muddy Waters Research, told an audience of accounting students and aspiring investors at Baruch College in Manhattan on Wednesday.
Financial Times: 
  • Majority in China expect war with Japan. China and Japan are heading towards military conflict, according to a majority of Chinese surveyed on ties between the Asian powers in a Sino-Japanese poll. The Genron/China Daily survey found that 53 per cent of Chinese respondents – and 29 per cent of the Japanese polled – expect their nations to go to war. The poll was released ahead of the second anniversary of Japan’s move to nationalise some of the contested Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.50 +.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (KR)/.69
  • (ULTA)/.83 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 300K versus 302K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2490K versus 2464K prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for August is estimated at -$130.0B.
Upcoming Splits
  • (CLR) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB bulletin, $13B 30Y T-Bond auction, USDA's WASDE report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Sept. US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (ZU) analyst day, (BBT) investor day and the (COO) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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