Thursday, April 30, 2015

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Greece Deal Targeted by Sunday as Tsipras Pushes for Progress. Greece and its euro-area partners are stepping up talks in a bid to break an impasse over bailout aid as early as next week, even as the country’s government sent conflicting signals over its willingness to agree on long-stalled reforms. With Greece facing a cash crunch as early as next week, both sides in a meeting of euro-area officials agreed to pursue intensive negotiations beginning on Thursday with the target of a preliminary deal by May 3, according to two people with knowledge of the talks. The aim would be for finance ministers to sign off on the accord by their next scheduled meeting on May 11, the officials said, asking not to be named because the talks are private. 
  • Europe’s Debt Selloff Erases $61 Billion in Value in One Day. Investors revolting against negative yields in Europe wiped 55 billion euros ($61 billion) off the value of the region’s government bonds in one day. The value of European debt dropped to 5.844 trillion euros on Wednesday, the lowest level since March 30, in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Euro Government Index.
  • The Most-Crowded Trades Come Undone in Markets Roiled by Europe. The year’s most-popular market bets got hammered on Wednesday, showing just how risky it is to follow the crowd. The dollar, which has rallied more than 15 percent during the past 12 months, extended its longest losing streak since August 2013. The euro, which has lost about 19 percent in the period, soared. Oil gained, European stocks tanked, and U.S. Treasures slumped without any obvious reason. And this was all before the Federal Reserve released its policy statement at 2 p.m. after a two-day meeting in Washington, which ended up having relatively little effect on markets. Traders seemed to largely be responding to other events, such as a measure of the euro region’s strength accelerating to the fastest pace since 2009. 
  • Brazil Raises Key Rate for Fifth Time as Inflation Quickens. Brazil’s central bank increased the benchmark interest rate for the fifth consecutive meeting to bring surging inflation back to target by the end of next year. The bank’s board, led by its President Alexandre Tombini, in a unanimous vote raised the key rate by a half-point to 13.25 percent Wednesday, the highest since January 2009. The statement accompanying the decision uses the same language as the prior communique. The increase was forecast by 53 of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The remainder expected a quarter-point boost.  
  • Honda Falls Most in Four Years as Profit Forecast Lags Estimates. Honda Motor Co. fell the most in four years in Tokyo trading after forecasting profit that fell short of analyst estimates, as recall costs and weaker overseas currencies erode the carmaker’s earnings. Honda fell as much as 7.7 percent, the biggest intraday decline since March 2011, to 3,999 yen and traded at 4,032.5 yen as of 9:15 a.m.  
  • Chinese Stocks in Hong Kong Fall Most in Week Before Data. Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong fell for a third day, with raw-material companies sliding before Friday’s manufacturing data and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. slumping after reporting its weakest first-quarter earnings growth since listing in 2006. Jiangxi Copper Co., the nation’s biggest producer of the metal, plunged 2.8 percent. ICBC, the largest lender, declined the most in three months after net income climbed 1.4 percent and bad-loan charges surged. Official manufacturing data will probably show a reading of 50 in April, down from the previous month’s 50.1, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Technology companies jumped in Shanghai as investors sought new-economy shares before the factory report. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong slid for a third day, losing 1.5 percent to 14,381.10 at 10:22 a.m.
  • Asian Stocks Pare Biggest Monthly Advance in 19 Months on Fed. Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark paring its biggest monthly gain since September 2013, as the Federal Reserve downplayed weak U.S. economic growth and kept raising interest rates on the table for later this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent to 155.69 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for a 6.4 percent advance this month.
  • OmniVision(OVTI) Said to Near $1.7 Billion Sale to Hua Capital. OmniVision Technologies Inc., whose camera sensors have been used in Apple Inc.’s iPhone, is near an agreement to be acquired by a group of Chinese investors, people with knowledge of the matter said. Hua Capital Management, the Beijing-based private equity firm, will pay about $29 a share for the chip designer, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the transaction hasn’t yet been made public. A purchase at that price would value the company at $1.68 billion. A deal could be announced as soon as Thursday, the people said. Santa Clara, California-based OmniVision rose about 5.9 percent in late trading Wednesday, after ending regular trading at $26.55 a share. Chinese buyers are using takeovers to acquire chip capabilities. Last year, a Beijing-based university led the acquisition of Spreadtrum Communications Inc., a designer of chips used to connect smartphones to cellular networks.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com: 
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Post: 
  • Prisoner in van said Freddie Gray was ‘trying to injure himself,’ document says. A prisoner sharing a police transport van with Freddie Gray told investigators that he could hear Gray “banging against the walls” of the vehicle and believed that he “was intentionally trying to injure himself,” according to a police document obtained by The Washington Post. The prisoner, who is currently in jail, was separated from Gray by a metal partition and could not see him. His statement is contained in an application for a search warrant, which is sealed by the court. The Post was given the document under the condition that the prisoner not be named because the person who provided it feared for the inmate’s safety.
Telegraph:
Shanghai Securities News: 
  • China Should Avoid Excessive Credit Expansion. China should keep monetary policy neutral and not engage in another round of "excessive" credit expansion, citing Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Financial Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Deleveraging will promote economic restructuring, Yi says. China should eliminate bubbles in the property market through monetary policy, Yi is cited as saying.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.50 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.5 +.75 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (APD)/1.55
  • (ARG)/1.14
  • (AB)/.47
  • (AMT)/1.17
  • (ABC)/1.19
  • (ADP)/1.02
  • (AVP)/.07
  • (BZH)/-.13
  • (BWA)/.84
  • (BG)/1.13
  • (CAH)/1.16
  • (CELG)/1.06
  • (CI)/1.82
  • (CME)/.95
  • (CL)/.66
  • (COP)/-.17
  • (CY)/.07
  • (DBD)/.28
  • (XOM)/.83
  • (LLL)/1.57
  • (MOS)/.75
  • (PSX)/1.42
  • (PBI)/.40
  • (POT)/.49
  • (RYL)/.45
  • (SEE)/.42
  • (ZMH)/1.54
  • (AIG)/1.19
  • (FLR)/.98
  • (GILD)/2.32
  • (LNKD)/.56
  • (SPWR)/.08
  • (V)/.61
Economic Releases
8:30 AM EST
  • The 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.6% gain in 4Q.
  • Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in February.
  • Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in February.
  • The PCE Core for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in February.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 290K versus 295K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2300K versus 2325K prior.
9:00 am EST
  • ISM Milwaukee for April is estimated to fall to 53.0 versus 53.25 in March.
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for April is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 46.3 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Tarullo speaking, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (GLW) annual meeting  could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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