Monday, June 26, 2017

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Yen Weakness, Financial/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.75 -2.69%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.53 +.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.33 -.27%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 32.98 -4.54%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -12.73%
  • Total Put/Call .77 -18.95%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -20.63%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.72 -1.51%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 486.0 -1.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.23 -3.16%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 7.09 +16.69%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.09 -.86%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.28 -.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 139.48 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.50 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 34.25 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.91 +.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .96% unch.
  • Yield Curve 80.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.75/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -78.50 -3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.60 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.0 -.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 +1.0 basis point
  • 26.1% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 20 meeting, 27.6% chance at Nov. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +65 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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