Monday, October 23, 2017

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Geopolitical Concerns, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Metals & Mining/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.20 +2.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.18 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.16 +.99%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 14.62 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +35.25%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +15.85%
  • NYSE Arms 1.34 +38.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.29 -.43%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 384.0 +.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.18 -1.0%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.77 +2.14%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.62 +.26%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 174.32 +1.40%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 144.46 -.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.50 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.25 -.27%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 81.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.0/Metric Tonne -.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.0 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.90 -1.2 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.90 -.3 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 -1.0 basis points
  • 84.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 84.8% chance at Jan. 31 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +58 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/retail sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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