Sunday, March 11, 2018

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China at Risk of Banking Crisis in BIS's Early Warning Signal. China, Canada and Hong Kong are among the economies most at risk of a banking crisis, according to early warning indicators compiled by the Bank for International Settlements. Canada -- whose economy grew last year at the fastest pace since 2011 -- was flagged thanks to its households’ maxed-out credit cards and high debt levels in the wider economy. These same issues also afflict China and Hong Kong, according to the study. “The indicators currently point to the build-up of risks in several economies,” analysts Inaki Aldasoro, Claudio Borio and Mathias Drehmann wrote in the BIS’s latest Quarterly Review published on Sunday.
  • Deutsche Bank Board Said to Seek 6,000 Job Cuts at Retail Unit. Deutsche Bank AG’s management board will seek to cut as many as 6,000 jobs at the lender’s retail unit by the end of 2022, providing the first estimate for the expected staff reductions at the newly formed division, according to two people briefed on the matter.
  • Asia Stocks Set to Gain on U.S. Economy Optimism. Australia’s stocks opened higher and futures on equity indexes in Japan and Hong Kong indicated gains of about 1 percent for the start of Monday trading after the S&P 500 Index climbed and the Nasdaq Composite Index soared to a fresh record high. U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 313,000 last month, topping forecasts, and the biggest increase in 18 months, while wage growth was subdued. That nudged up Treasury yields. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1 percent in most recent trading in Chicago. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.8 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 1 percent. S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.3 percent as of 8:03 a.m. in Tokyo.
Wall Street Journal: 
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.75 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.41 +.05%. 
  • FTSE 100 futures +.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (SHLD)/1.16
  • (KRO)/.54 
Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for February is estimated at -$216.0B versus -$192.0B in January.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Cowen Health Care Conference, White House meeting on renewable fuel standards, $28B 3Y T-Note auction, $21B 10Y T-Note auction and the Japan inflation report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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