Thursday, March 01, 2018

Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Medical/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.4 +22.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.46 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.23 +2.24%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.94 +1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 65.0 -21.69%
  • Total Put/Call 1.28 +19.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.40 -14.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.59 +2.85%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 389.0 +3.79%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.17 +2.51%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.25 -1.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.11 -.21%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 126.79 +3.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.95 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -2.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 36.25 +3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.17 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.62% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 60.0 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 75.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.98%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.50 +6.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .2 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.30 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -624 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -229 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -151 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial/medical/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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