Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Stocks Close Sharply Higher on Diminishing Trade War Worries, Positive Earnings Outlooks, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.0 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.13 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.47 +.14%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +39.5%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -10.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +.51%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.03 -1.65%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 370.0 -2.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.09 -1.40%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 228.25 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.74 +2.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.35 -3.51%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.83 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 34.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.07 +.67%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.99% unch.
  • Yield Curve 28.75 -2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.96 USD/Metric Tonne -.39%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.40 -4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.80 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 +1.0 basis point
  • 80.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 81.3% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +36 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +136 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

No comments: