Friday, July 13, 2018

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Tade War Worries, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Stable Long-Term Rates, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.4 -1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.52 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.18 +.59%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.08 +.16%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 173.0 +49.1%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +3.33%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 +29.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.32 -2.40%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 379.0 -1.75%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.88 -2.57%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 221.0 -5.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.60 -4.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 174.49 -1.41%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.96 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75-.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.71 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.96% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 25.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.38 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.90 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.0 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +1.0 basis point
  • 86.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 87.0% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -22 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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