Thursday, May 09, 2019

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Stocks Edge Up in Asia as Tariff Deadline Nears: Markets Wrap. Asian shares climbed with U.S. equity futures as the U.S. and China continued a pivotal round of trade negotiations. The yuan remains near its weakest since January. Shares in Japan and South Korea rose, while futures indicated a rebound in China, with hours to go before Washington ratchets up tariffs. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index ticked up after the benchmark pared losses on Wall Street into the close on Thursday. President Donald Trump said he received a “beautiful letter” from President Xi Jinping and the two leaders would probably speak by phone. Sentiment remains fragile, though, and the gap between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields briefly turned negative, traditionally a recession warning. Elsewhere, crude oil rose. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.3% as of 9:18 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.8%. Hang Seng futures earlier rose 0.3%. FTSE China A50 futures earlier advanced 1.3%. Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.3%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 46.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.06 +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.28%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.44%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (JD)/.83
  • (MAR)/1.34
  • (VIAB)/.81
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in March.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in March.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for April.
2:00 pm EST
  • Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated to fall to $160.5B versus $214.3B in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, China tariff increase and the Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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