Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 

• Here's What Could Happen If the Yuan Slips to 7 a Dollar

• Wall Street's Darkening Trade-War Gloom Means Tossing Old Advice.  

• Asia Stocks Seen Lower; Treasuries Pare Gains. Asian equities look set to remain under pressure Thursday after U.S. stocks fell to a 12-week low amid increased concern for global growth. Treasuries closed higher though pared gains as the session progressed. Futures pointed to modest losses in Japan and Australia after the S&P 500 Index closed at the lowest since March 11. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 2.21% before rebounding to 2.26% -- still the lowest since September 2017. The yield gap between three-month and 10-year Treasuries, often watched as an early signal of pending recession, slid to a 2007 low of minus 13 basis points. The dollar rose for a third day versus major peers, including the yen. Gold climbed and oil retreated. Futures on the Nikkei 225 fell 0.1% in Singapore. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index futures fell 0.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures were flat.

• U.S. Wants T-Mobile to Create New Competitor as Part of Deal.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Bond Traders Lay Out Roadmap to 2% Yield on 10-Year Treasuries.

Wall Street Journal:

• Israel Heads for New Elections in Setback for Netanyahu.

• The Dollar Underpins American Power. Rivals Are Building Workarounds.

• Tennessee Voucher Victory.

• Boeing Faces Difficult Recovery From MAX Grounding.

• Stocks, Bond Yields Fall Further Amid Trade Jitters.

• Britain’s Labour Party Leader Warms to Referendum on Brexit Deal.

Fox News:

• House speaker forced to respond to Dems' growing calls for Trump impeachment after Mueller address.

• GREGG JARRETT: The 2 faces of the special counsel have been revealed.

• Louisiana’s governor, a Democrat, poised to sign ‘heartbeat’ bill into law.

MarketWatch.com:

• Shorting Beyond Meat(BYND) stock is beyond expensive.

• Palo Alto Networks continues wave of acquisitions, but stock slips as purchases hit earnings forecast.

• Energy drinks may be linked to frightening side effects for your heart.

CNBC:

• ‘Don’t say we didn’t warn you’: A phrase from China signals the trade war could get even worse.

• Corporations were the biggest buyers of stock during the bull market, but now they’re selling.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: PVH, Twilio, Palo Alto Networks and more.

• As US ETFs see $7 billion in outflows this month, experts pinpoint where to hide.

• Take a look inside McDonald’s new Times Square flagship.

Zero Hedge:

• PIMCO: "This Is The Riskiest Credit Market Ever, Central Banks' Control Over Markets Is Coming To An End".

• WeWork Is Quietly Arranging A $2.75 Billion Credit Line, Raising Questions.

• Dalio Warns Of "Risky Time As US-China Conflict Is "Much More Than A Trade War".

• Pelosi Slams Facebook As 'Willing Enablers' Of Kremlin For Refusing To Delete 'Drunk' Video.

• Pre-Crime Is Here: Law Enforcement's New TAPS System 'Predicts' If You Pose A Future Threat.

• PBOC Panics, Floods Market With Liquidity As Interbank Funding Freezes After Baoshang Seizure.

• Globalists Only Need One More Major Event To Finish Sabotaging The Economy.

• WTI Extends Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.

• Stocks Slammed As Credit Cracks, Retail Routed, Yield Curve Craters.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.50 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 56.75 +2.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.69 +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BURL)/1.25

• (CSIQ)/-.57

• (DG)/1.39

• (DLTR)/1.14

• (SAFM)/1.77

• (TECD)/1.97

• (TITN)/-.05

After the Close:

• (COO)/2.77

• (COST)/1.83

• (DELL)/1.20

• (GPS)/.32

• (MRVL)/.14

• (NTNX)/-.60

• (OKTA)/-.21

• (RRGB)/.49

• (UBER)/-2.20

• (ULTA)/3.07

• (VMW)/1.28

• (WSM)/.69

• (ZS)/.01

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a prior estimate of a +3.2% gain.

• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a prior estimate of a +1.2% gain.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 211K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1667K versus 1676K prior.

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for April is estimated at -$72.7B versus -$71.4B in March.

• Retail Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in March.

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +3.8% gain in March.
  

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,091,420 barrels versus a +4,740,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -774,090 barrels versus a +3,716,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +531,270 barrels versus a +768,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.14% versus a -.6% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (FFIN) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Clarida speaking, Japan Jobless Rate,  weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Keybanc Auto/Industrial/Transport Conference, Ladenburg Thalmann Tech Expo, Keefe Bruyette Real Estate Finance/Asset Mgmt Conference, DA Davidson Consumer Growth Conference and the (MOH) Investor Day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.