Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 
  • Asia Stocks to Start Mixed; Dollar Climbs on Fed. Stocks in Asia looked set for a mixed start as Federal Reserve policy makers cast doubt on the need for further easing. The dollar advanced. Equity futures in Japan and Australia pointed higher while Hong Kong contracts slipped. The S&P 500 ended the day flat after wiping out earlier losses and short-dated Treasuries fell as the lack of Fed unity implied the central bank may hold off after lowering their main interest rate for a second time this year. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were flat as of 8 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying measure closed was little changed. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.5%. Hang Seng futures earlier fell 0.4%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.86 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (DRI)/1.36
After the Close:
  • (SCHL)/-1.80
  • (scs)/.43
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The 2Q Current Account Balance is estimated at -$127.4B versus -$130.4B in 1Q.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for September is estimated to fall to 10.5 versus 16.8 in August. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 213K versus 204K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1672K versus 1670K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for August is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.5% gain in July.
  • Existing Home Sales for August is estimated to fall to 5.38M versus 5.42M in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The deputy level trade talks between US/China begin, BofE meeting, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Bloomberg US Economic Expectations Index for Sept., weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Citi Growth Conference, (ORCL) financial analyst meeting, (POOL) investor day and the (STX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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