Monday, April 13, 2020

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, Earnings Jitters, Oil Decline, Transport/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 43.2 +3.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.84 -1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.48 +.26%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 77.7 +1.26%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 173.0 +123.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 -14.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 +113.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.42 +3.59%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,145.0 -10.7%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.33 -.08%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 +.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.61 -8.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 306.93 +1.42%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 157.49 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 102.5 -7.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 37.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 +8.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.99 -.44%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .51 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -81.9 -14.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.80 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.60 +7.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.26 +2.0 basis points
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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