Thursday, April 02, 2020

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Biotech/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 53.6 -6.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.36 -.60%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.73 +2.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 79.16 -4.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.23 +3.4%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -27.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 124.44 +.9%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,439.0 +3.84%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.14 -.21%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 -6.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.0 +3.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 371.94 -3.21%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.72 -.23%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 139.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 63.75 +8.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -6.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.92 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .39 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.59 USD/Metric Tonne +3.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.1 -55.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.10 -4.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 -3.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.02 +7.0 basis points
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +233 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -160 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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