Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Dollar Weakness, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Gaining
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.6 +.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.03%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.5 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.5 +1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.7 -3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -11.7%

• NYSE Arms .94 +17.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.1 -.55%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.82 -.65%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 319.0 +6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.6 -.75% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 386.6 +4.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 +2.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 232.17 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.7 +.2%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  143.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 101.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .66 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.76% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.7 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 87.3 -5.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.89 -.06:  Growth Rate +.3% unch., P/E 18.4 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.91% -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 -7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -82.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.16% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.48% +4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 73.1%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 45.2%(-3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.0%(-1.8 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +158 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +87 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long