Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.6 -3.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.44%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.1 -.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.40 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.0 -3.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -11.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.34 +38.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.9 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 383.09 -1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 301.0 -2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.4 -2.0% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 402.6 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.5 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.90 -3.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.32 +.79%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.75 basis points +3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  147.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 518.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 62.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.62 +.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.81% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.42%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 71.7 +4.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.6 -2.5 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.03 -.03:  Growth Rate +.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.40% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .20 +2.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -81.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.50% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.23% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 70.3%(-5.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 53.2%(-7.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +49 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -84 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long