Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• President Donald Trump said Israel has agreed to the conditions needed for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, adding that the plan would now be presented to Hamas.
• President Donald Trump said he is not considering delaying his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume, and renewed his threat to cut off talks and impose duty rates on several nations, including Japan. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Google ends tests of a feature that would have let users open a snapshot of cooking-recipe content directly in web search results — a welcome development for creators who were concerned about eroding traffic to their sites. 
• Toyota is slowing plans to build EVs in the US to free up manufacturing capacity for a popular gas-powered SUV. 
• Some of Wall Street’s largest lenders boosted their dividends after passing this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, a hurdle that regulators made easier to clear by softening some of the requirements laid out in previous years.
  Jurors in the Sean “Diddy” Combs case told the judge they reached a verdict on sex trafficking and prostitution charges but were divided on a lone racketeering charge.
• Centene shares plunged after the health insurer pulled its 2025 guidance following an early analysis of data from the Affordable Care Act marketplace that showed a significant revenue hit from a risk-sharing mechanism.
• Leveraging home sensors and AI, Whisker Labs has developed new ways to rapidly track electricity flows to detect grid faults — leaving some power providers trailing. 
• Bond traders who rapidly built up long Treasuries positions in recent weeks are counting on Thursday’s jobs report to give the market rally more room to run. 
• Jeff Bezos sold 3.3 million Amazon shares in recent days, netting $736.7 million.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day
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• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.  

• @ZeroHedge 

• UPenn, Trump Admin Reach Deal To Strip Trans Swimmer Of Past Titles & Awards.
• The face you make when you’ve convinced NPR that socialism is just vibes.
• Rubio Announces USAID Has 'Officially' Ceased Operations. 
• "This Is The Next Level": AI-Powered "Digital Workers" Deployed At Major Bank To Work Alongside Humans
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• The Curbing Of The Administrative State
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• Bridgewater’s Flagship Pure Alpha Fund Gains 17% in 1H: Reuters
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• Productivity Gains From Using AI
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• Judge Orders Halt To Mass Layoffs At Dept. Of Health And Human Services.
   
• "Violent Moves": Stocks Start H2 With Momo Massacre & Massive Short-Squeeze; Bullion Bid & Bonds Battered
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• @CNBC 

• Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Google promotes ‘AI Mode’ on home page 'Doodle'.

• @TheTranscript 

• $AMZN CEO: One of the why questions we’re always asking is how can we help operations employees access inventory more efficiently? We’re taking a big leap forward by introducing DeepFleet, an exciting new AI model that makes our one million+ robot fleet work smarter. Think of DeepFleet as an intelligent traffic management system for our fulfillment centers. Just like smart traffic systems reduce congestion in cities, DeepFleet coordinates our robots’ movements to find optimal paths and reduce bottlenecks.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 50.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 37.0% -15.0 percentage points. 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% -7.0 percentage points

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.05 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.16 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.6 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 -.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.04%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.