Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, more Mideast unrest, Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, more shorting and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,667.47 +2.07%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,667.47 +2.07%

• DJIA 15,354.40 +1.56%

• NASDAQ 3,498.96 +1.82%

• Russell 2000 996.28 +2.17%

• S&P 500 High Beta 25.99 +2.61%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 430.82 +1.93%

• Russell 1000 Growth 763.92 +1.66%

• Russell 1000 Value 846.21 +2.31%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,032.47 +1.90%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,236.52 +1.92%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 773.72 +2.26%

• Transports 6,549.16 +2.72%

• Utilities 516.70 +.58%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.02 +2.45%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.30 -.55%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,127.74 +.66%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 939.92 +.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 192,643 +.71%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 609 -202

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 -49.23%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 232,590 +5.42%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,758,686 -.66%

• Total Put/Call .80 +8.11%

• OEX Put/Call 1.42 -8.39%

• ISE Sentiment 90.0 -27.42%

• NYSE Arms .62 -29.54%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.45 -1.11%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.74 +.05%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.94 +3.76%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.97 +11.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,138.95 +1.28%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.582 Trillion unch.

• AAII % Bulls 38.5 -5.6%

• AAII % Bears 29.3 +6.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 287.60 -.38%

• Crude Oil 96.02 +.05%

• Reformulated Gasoline 290.69 +1.74%

• Natural Gas 4.05 +3.79%

• Heating Oil 293.70 +1.13%

• Gold 1,364.70 -5.70%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 192.81 -.75%

• Copper 332.30 -1.76%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.10 USD/Ton -5.01%

• Lumber 315.80 -6.62%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,470.69 -.73%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 7.0% -30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.4709 +2.61%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 115.56 +.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.50 -10.2 points

• Citi Emerging Mkts Economic Surprise Index -47.40 +2.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/19

• US Dollar Index 84.25 +1.39%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.13 +.38%

• Yield Curve 171.0 +5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.95% +5 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.312 Trillion +.93%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.81 -5.35%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 117.0 -4.1%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 85.50 -2.84%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 176.76 +4.45%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 122.0 +8.54%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 400.0 -1 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26% -8 basis points

• TED Spread 24.25 +.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.5 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.25 -3.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.20 -2.70%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 130.83 -2.83%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 246.51 +5.61%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 98.0 +13 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.517 Trillion -2.21%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,013.60 +2.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 339,300 +2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.51% +9 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 876.60 -7.3%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -30.2 -.7 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.80% +60 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.62/gallon +.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 841.0 -4.86%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,069.97 -1.19%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 248,266 +1.05%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.7%

Leading Sectors

• Education +11.9%

• Alt Energy +6.7%

• Networking +5.3%

• Internet +4.6%

• I-Banking +4.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Hospitals -1.2% 

• Agriculture -1.8%

• Coal -3.1%

• Steel -5.1%

• Gold & Silver -10.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• SCTY, MGMB, TEAR, MRIN, TSLA, OPTR, RH, OLP, ENV, SRI, PANL, FANG, ONE, HTH, NNI, WWAV, UBNT, CUB, BBOX, WAGE, CUBI, SSYS, ACET and EOPN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• PIKE, GEVA, WLH, CSC and INFI

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Performance Angst, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 12.45 -4.74%

• ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 -28.7%

• Total Put/Call .82 -15.46%

• NYSE Arms .69 -55.51%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.08 -2.16%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 130.83 -2.24%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.17 -3.51%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.38 +.58%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.5 +.5 bp

• TED Spread 24.25 -.5 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.25 -.5 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 170.0 +7 bps

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $123.10/Metric Tonne -1.52%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.5 +5.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +272 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +57 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Banker in Jail Suggests Spain Is Calling Lenders to Account.
• Cypriot Bailout Program Faces ‘Unusually High’ Risks, IMF Says. Cyprus may need additional financing if its economy contracts more than expected or there are slippages in implementing the terms of its bailout program with the euro area and International Monetary Fund, IMF staff said. The impact of Cyprus’s banking crisis on gross domestic product and on the country’s fiscal consolidation is “highly uncertain,” the Washington-based institution said in a staff report today. This means risks to the outlook are “substantial and tilted to the downside” as problems would adversely affect the trajectory of Cyprus’s public debt. 
• Italian Government Suspends Unpopular Property Tax Payment. The Italian Cabinet agreed today to suspend the payment of a residential property tax due in June, an unpopular levy adopted by former Prime Minister Mario Monti to help reduce the country’s budget deficit. The administration led by Premier Enrico Letta pledged to review the tax by Aug. 31. It also approved additional funding of 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) for workers in a temporary layoff program known as CIG.
• Russian GDP Growth at 1.6% as Economy Weakest Since 2009. Russia’s economy grew at the weakest pace since 2009 in the first quarter as the euro area’s longest recession hurt demand for commodity exports and investment at companies including OAO Gazprom cooled. Gross domestic product rose 1.6 percent from a year earlier, slowing for a fifth consecutive quarter, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. That compares with a median estimate of 1.2 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 23 economists and a 2.1 percent pace in the final three months of 2012. The Economy Ministry estimated first-quarter growth at 1.1 percent.
• Dollar Index Reaches Highest Since 2010 on Fed; Aussie Slides. The Dollar Index climbed to the highest level in almost three years amid speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to ending its program of asset purchases on signs U.S. economic growth is improving. The greenback rose versus all of its 16 most-traded peers as U.S. leading indicators improved and consumer confidence rose to the highest in almost six years. The American currency climbed past 103 yen for the first time since October 2008. The Australian and New Zealand dollars slid on concern slowing global inflation will damp demand for commodities.
• Oil Price-Fixing Probe Widens as Neste Helps EU Inquiry. The European oil price-fixing probe expanded as Neste Oil Oyj (NES1V), Finland’s only refiner, said it was asked to provide information regarding potential manipulation of global crude and biofuel markets. The widening investigation comes as Pannonia Ethanol, a Hungarian biofuel producer, said it lodged a complaint with the European Commission last year after data-pricing company Platts denied requests to contribute to its price-setting process. Meanwhile, Statoil ASA (STL), one of the European oil companies that has been ensnared in the investigation, said it has “zero tolerance” for breaches of rules.
• Gold Heads for Longest Slump in Four Years on Fed, Dollar. Gold fell, heading for the longest slump in four years, as the dollar jumped to a 34-month high and a Federal Reserve policy maker said that U.S. monetary stimulus may be reduced within months.

Wall Street Journal: 

• GOP Lawmakers Criticize IRS as Hearing Opens. House Republicans on Friday probed for political motivations behind the Internal Revenue Service's targeting of conservative groups, saying lawmakers had been lied to and that there had been additional violations at the agency. House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R., Mich.), saying the revelations so far were "just the tip of the iceberg," asked who started targeting conservative groups, who knew about the practice, why it went on for so long and why the IRS wasn't forthcoming when lawmakers asked whether conservatives were being targeted. 

CNBC: 

• Italian Government 'History' as 'Virus' Spreads: Grillo. Traditional parties that make up Italy's coalition government will become history in less than four months, Beppe Grillo, the leader of the anti-establishment "Five Star Movement" told CNBC, likening the support for his movement to a fast-spreading "virus."  
• How to Tell If the IRS Is Eyeing You. You consider yourself a law abiding citizen, and you are not starting a nonprofit organization with conservative ties.

Zero Hedge:

• The Ugly Truth Behind Spain's First Trade Surplus In Over 40 Years. (graph)
• Chinese Profitability Squeezed Further By Third Year Of Double-Digit Wage Gains. (graph)
• Michigan Confidence Soars To Highest Since 2007, Biggest Beat Of Expectations On Record. (graph)
• Charting Irrational Credit Bubble Exuberance Euphoria.

Business Insider:

• It's Time To Discuss The Secret CIA Operation At The Heart Of The Benghazi Scandal.
• The Riskiest Places In The World [MAP].
• Here's The Top Stock Held By Each Of The 50 Biggest Hedge Funds.
• Woman At The Center Of The IRS Scandal Is Now In Charge Of Implementing Obamacare.
• Rupert Murdoch Says Facebook(FFB) Is Starting To Implode, Just Like 'Crappy MySpace' Did.

Reuters:

• Fitch cuts Slovenia as bailout worries continue.
• Fitch throws CMBS hand grenade ahead of SEC meeting. Fitch shook up the US securitization market this week when, on the eve of a long-awaited US SEC public roundtable on credit rating industry reform, it issued an unsolicited comment lambasting the Triple A ratings given by two of its rivals to a new single-asset commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) linked to a trophy Manhattan office building. 
• TABLE-U.S. March factory orders revised to -4.9 pct.

USA Today:

• Benghazi e-mails unleash flood of questions.
• Obamacare: 3 years in, it faces steep challenges. Poll: Accept The Law or Try to Change It?

Handelsblatt:

• Germany Against ECB Idea to Put ABS Risk on EU. "EU-budget guarantees to safeguard ECB measures is a renewed attempt to create a liability union by stealth," Michael Meister, deputy caucus leader for Merkel's CDU/CSU bloc in parliament, said. "The best protection for the ECB is simply to abstain from buying corporate bonds," Meister said. Meister called for a swift end to an "unnecessary discussion". SPD lawmaker Carsten Schneider also warned against burdening EIB saying plan risks turning the institution into "bad bank of Europe".

Manager Magazin:

• Germany's Rich Withdraw Money From Banks. Many family offices have no confidence in financial system stability, euro, and withdraw money from banks, money mkt funds, bonds, Yvonne Brueckner of Family Office Panel said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.28%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.06% 2) Drugs -.75% 3) Agriculture -.50%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• NGD, STO, CMCSA, MRK, DEO, NGG, ARUN, ADSK, SSI, UNXL, GTU, TSLA, DWRE, YOKU, AEGR, JWN, DE, CODE, CHKR, TD, STO, MIC, FNV, HQH, HQL, MRH, VASC, EW, APL and CHKR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RF 2) JWN 3) SCTY 4) TIF 5) XLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WSM 2) LTD 3) DE 4) EWZ 5) GS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume