Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The UK and France will host a summit to discuss setting up a naval force that would ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, as Europe seeks to rebut US claims that it’s not doing enough to secure the waterway. 
• Australia isn’t looking to engage in a “dispute” with President Donald Trump over his repeated complaints about Canberra’s failure to assist the US in the Iran war and to secure the Strait of Hormuz, senior government ministers say. 
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledged to deepen relations with Rome in a meeting with his Italian counterpart, as a split worsens between US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. 
• The Iranian and US blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are reviving anxiety over the fate of Asia’s most crucial strategic bottleneck.
• Alamar Biosciences, a maker of medical devices that detect protein biomarkers to diagnose diseases, has raised $191 million in an upsized US initial public offering that priced at the top of a marketed range. 
• Hedge funds had a strong recovery in early April, recouping losses from the previous month as a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran fueled optimism that the conflict could end soon.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• JUST IN - U.S. intelligence detects signs China is weighing providing Iran advanced X-band radar systems — CBS.
• Gavin Newsom just used his own PAC to buy $1.5 million worth of his own book. Even more comically, that accounts for 2/3 of the entire print sales. 
• NEW: Iran has directly denied Trump's claim that it agreed to hand over its enriched uranium, with a source close to Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying "no form of nuclear material transfer to America has been negotiated." A second Iranian source called it "another lie," adding that "no major progress has been made" and that continuation of talks is contingent on "compliance with all of Iran's conditions."
• Gulf Shock May Spark Shortage Of World's Most Critical Industrial Chemical, Used Heavily In Mining.
• From Supply-Chain Risk To National Security Imperative: U.S. Government Embraces Anthropic's Mythos AI.
• California Supreme Court Disbars Former Trump Attorney For Aiding Challenge Of 2020 Election Results.
• Trump Says 'Probably, Maybe' Iran Talks To Resume This Weekend, 'Not Sure' About Ceasefire Extension.
• Ceasefire-Squeeze Morphs Into 'Spot Up, Vol Up' Panic-Buying In Stocks; Bonds, Credit, & Crude Ain't Buying It.
• Risk control hasn’t started buying yet… but could add ~$185bn in the next month.    
• US Fertility Rates Hit Record Low In 2025.  

• @CNBC 

• Asia markets set to open mixed as fragile Middle East ceasefire tempers sentiment.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after Israel and Lebanon agree to a 10-day ceasefire: Live updates.
• Netflix stock falls after company reports earnings, announces Reed Hastings will step down as chairman.

• @GenFlynn

• Until we see serious changes of the U.S. federal election system by the Department of Homeland Security in coordination with the WH (all abiding by the @POTUS current executive orders), our election system remains virtually unchanged from the extremely problematic U.S. elections of 2020. Essentially, our election system is not a house with locks on its doors, our election system is a house without doors. This is an “America First” issue that must be corrected and very soon.

• @MarioNawful

• Some residents are already returning home to Southern Lebanon due to the announcement of a ceasefire. People are going back to areas that were just active conflict zones days ago. Either things are stabilizing… or people don’t have much choice. (video)

• @teddyschleifer

• Biggest Republican donors in the first quarter of 2026: — Miriam Adelson, $41 million — Andreessen Horowitz, $28 million — Jeff Yass, $21 million — Dick + Liz Uihlein, $19 million — Paul Singer, $17 million.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Alan Dershowitz: WOW! “I know Marco Rubio better, and I know that Marco Rubio is very supportive of Israel— but JD Vance is too “anti-involvement in foreign wars” and he’s too “America First…” Listen to this twice and realize how crazy this sounds. (video)

• @SidneyPowell1

• YES we certainly do need the SAVE ACT passed. Every Senator who has not voted for it should probably be investigated for corruption and definitely primaried and voted out of office at the earliest opportunity. They are protecting themselves and violating their duties to us.

• @TheSCIF

• THE WEINER LAPTOP could destroy the wealthy elites and the U.S. government itself. This is the child trafficking connection to the U.S. government and its dirty politicians that they've hidden from you. Chief Steven Silks threated to release the Weiner laptops contents then ended up dead along with 9 other officers, right before his retirement. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• South Carolina is a mess. Lots of closet Democrats pretending to be conservative.

• @libsoftiktok

• BREAKING: The resolution BLOCKING Trump from deporting 350,000 Haitians has passed the House. SEVEN Republicans voted for it along with 212 Democrats. It now goes to the Senate for a vote.

• @AaronSiriSG

• Trump's pick to head the CDC, Erica Schwartz, would likely be a disaster. Schwartz led nationwide Covid-19 vaccine deployment and her long track record of directly issuing rights-crushing civilian and military vaccine mandates, including mandating injection of smallpox, anthrax, and flu vaccines into U.S. Forces, and discipling those that refused, reflects she lacks the basic ethics and morals to lead the CDC. This agency does not need another cheerleader for industry; it needs a regulator over industry. Her prior promotion, let alone mandates, of nearly a dozen different vaccines leave little hope she will objectively oversee CDC’s vaccine program which has, between 1986 and the 2026, gone from 3 injections to 29 injections, including in utero, by an infant’s first birthday, while chronic childhood disease has gone from under 10% to over 40% of children, most related to immune system dysregulation.

• @HarrisonHSmith

• INSANE Admission from Epstein's Lawyer. Dershowitz says he encourages Netanyahu to do whatever he wants, even if it hurts America, because he and Miriam Adelson will "take care of President Trump."

• @RWMaloneMD

• The Demoncrats have put almost $100 million into the redistricting vote in Virginia, which if goes their way will swing Congress to blue in the midterms. The Republicans have put about one million to fight the redistricting. Most of that 100 million is dark money. $100 to $1...

• @ggreenwald

• Trump Reverses Himself, Joins Obama and Biden in Demanding "Clean" Renewal of NSA Domestic Spying Powers. (Meanwhile: Democrats, who claim Trump is an insane Hitler, prepare to extend his vast domestic spying powers).

• @FinanceLancelot

• Here's a list of oil refineries that have mysteriously caught fire or been blown up the last 45 days.

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY SMOKES. Every single Democrat in the Minnesota House Rules Committee votes to BLOCK investigations into fraud under Tim Walz. With a straight face, Democrats endorsed $9B+ in stolen tax dollars. They're panicked and don't want anyone finding out how this was allowed to happen. REMOVE WALZ FROM OFFICE and start the criminal proceedings for complicity! (video)
• NOW: Mass calls for investigations are ramping up after nearly a DOZEN of America's top scientists either died or disappeared with few answers. The scientists happen to be tied to "critical secrets." "This has the hallmarks of a FOREIGN OPERATION." This is insane. "These are some of the most advanced scientists working on our nation's most critical nation secrets." (video)

• @ABridgen 

• Another coincidence... Massive fire reported at the Dos Bocas Refinery in Tabasco, Mexico 9th April, 2026. Are you a coincidence theorist ? The world’s energy and oil refinery infrastructure is being targeted by those who want to inflict energy lockdowns on us all. (video)

• @AshtonForbes

• Here’s my take on the missing scientists. First, General McCasland is one everyone should be focused on. Commander of the Air Force research labs and confirmed was leaking info to Tom Delonge about ‘UFOs.’ Congress confirmed he was a person of interest. There’s no manhunt and the FBI hasn’t had a press conference so the government must not be too worried about him potentially defecting. My sources tell me the disappearance is a message to anyone who might leak to Congress or the senate about the tech we’re hiding. Alternative take is the missing people are being brought in to work on classified projects. The big secret isn’t aliens. It’s the technology we weaponized and are using to control the planet. That’s why people are being silenced. Aneutronic fusion propulsion. Directed energy conversion. No more steam cycle.

• @BillMelugin_

• Steyer’s hedge fund previously invested almost $90 million in a private company that operates ICE detention facilities (CoreCivic), including California’s largest ICE detention facility in Kern County. He now calls ICE a criminal enterprise.

• @IsaiahLCarter

• Someone, please explain to me... How does this NOT result in another civil war in this country, exactly? How is this NOT the foundation of a second Confederacy, by the EXACT same party who started the FIRST War Between the States?? Nah, these questions NEED to be asked and answered, RIGHT NOW. A "National Popular Vote Interstate Compact" is a blatant subversion of the Constitution.

• @ShannonJoyRadio

• A new national law has been introduced to require all Operating Systems to have mandatory Age Verification. House Resolution 8250 : “To require operating system providers to verify the age of any user of an operating system, and for other purposes.” The Federal bill was introduced by Rep. Josh Gottheimer, Democrat from New Jersey. And is co-sponsored by Elise M. Stefanik, Republican from New York. The full text of the bill has not yet been made publicly available (but is expected shortly). Trojan Horse for mandatory Digital ID right here: HR 8250 has been introduced. We need to KILL IT now.

• @WallStMav

• Australia used to have 8 refineries. Now they are down to only 2 active refineries. One of those just caught on fire with massive damage. Australia is already having a massive diesel and gasoline shortage. Australia imports most of it's diesel and gasoline from Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia. However those refineries are not receiving enough oil from the Middle East, so they lack enough gasoline and diesel to export to Australia. (video)

• @austin_fit76995

• Larry Fink: “Every currency and financial asset will be digitized into digital wallets. This will roll out globally, fast. It rewires the plumbing of finance.” The infrastructure for The Great Taking is being announced. When all assets sit in custodial digital wallets on centralized ledgers, legal title and control shift to whoever runs the plumbing. That’s not innovation, it’s the end of direct ownership. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
• Crude Oil 93.36/bbl. -1.3% 
• Gold 4,810.4 USD/t oz. +.04%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.74 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 112.8 -.5%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.31% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.62% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.