Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 -1.7%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.0 +.7%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .12 -4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.8 +.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 162.3 -1.6%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 73.2 -.7%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.7 -3.2
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.5 -1.1
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -4.6
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +66.5% -14.8 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 338.15 +.73: Growth Rate +21.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.2 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 802.76 +2.28: Growth Rate +101.8% +.6 percentage point, P/E 18.7 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 unch.
- US Yield Curve 51.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.8 +1.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.6 euros/megawatt-hour +4.5%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 20.4% -.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.56 +11.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.9% (+1.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +942 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +334 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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