Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.4 +.6%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.5 -2.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .01 -3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.5 +.3%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 161.7 +2.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 70.5 +1.4%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.7 -1.4
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.9 +3.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.1 -10.5
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.7 +11.1
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(121 of 500 reporting) +25.4% -4.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 342.0 +.49: Growth Rate +23.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.16% +8.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 821.11 +1.40: Growth Rate +107.4% +1.4 percentage points, P/E 19.6 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 +4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.9 -.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.4 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.9% -1.6 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.64 +10.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 95.8% (-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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