Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, AI Infrastructure Build-Out, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.2 unch.
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.0 +.3% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .04 +5.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.3 +.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 158.7 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 69.6 -.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.1 +2.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -.6
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.6 -3.2
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 -1.7
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(84 of 500 reporting) +29.0% +.6 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 341.51 +.19:  Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 20.9 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.08% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 819.71 +.76: Growth Rate +106.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.3 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.1 +1.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.1 euros/megawatt-hour +5.2% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.5% unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.55 +7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 95.8% (-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +410 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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