Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.2 unch.
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.0 +.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .04 +5.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.3 +.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 158.7 +.9%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 69.6 -.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.1 +2.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -.6
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.6 -3.2
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 -1.7
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(84 of 500 reporting) +29.0% +.6 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 341.51 +.19: Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 20.9 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.08% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 819.71 +.76: Growth Rate +106.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 -5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.1 +1.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.1 euros/megawatt-hour +5.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.5% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.55 +7.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 95.8% (-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +410 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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