Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Ceasefire Expiration Worries, Global Supply Chain Disruption Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Medical/Airline Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.6 +2.1%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.1 -1.4% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.0 +2.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.0 +1.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 69.8 +1.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 +.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.8 +3.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.4 -4.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.3 +1.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(62 of 500 reporting) +28.4% -3.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 341.32 +.12:  Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% -4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 818.95 +.94: Growth Rate +105.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.4 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .88 -4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.40 -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.5 euros/megawatt-hour +8.0% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.5% -.8 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.49 +7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.8% (-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 93.6%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -510 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +72 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long