Thursday, September 07, 2017

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Draghi Says Euro a Concern as ECB Targets October Decision on QE. (video) Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank is watching the euro’s gains as policy makers edge toward settling the future of their bond-buying program. “The recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring” for its impact on price stability, the ECB president told reporters in Frankfurt on Thursday. He said the decisions on QE are “many, complex, and always naturally one thinks about risks that may materialize in the coming weeks or months, so that is the caution behind not specifying a date -- probably the bulk of these decisions will be taken in October.”
  • China Cities Face Surging Funding Costs on Default Concerns. China’s cities, towns and counties are facing surging borrowing costs as investors anticipate landmark defaults. A local government financing vehicle in the country’s east was recently forced to pay a coupon on a bond that matched a record. Average financing costs in credit markets for the units that finance roads, bridges and sewers have jumped, with yields for some borrowers surging the most in six years.
  • Microsoft(MSFT), Facebook(FB) Gear Up for New Battle on DACA Program. Technology companies’ vociferous support for the children of undocumented immigrants could set the industry up for its biggest showdown yet with President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress. Executives from Microsoft Corp., Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc. were among the strongest in condemning Trump’s decision on Tuesday to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. Known as DACA, it lets children brought to the U.S. as undocumented immigrants work, drive and enroll in college. The president gave Congress six months to pass laws to replace the program. If that doesn’t happen, it could open a new front in the intermittent flame war between the world’s most powerful tech companies and the U.S. government.
  • FDA Vows Modernization to Keep Up With Biotech Advances.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -2.2% 2) Insurance -2.2% 3) Telecom -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NCS, UVE, ALNY, AM, RACE, VR, AHL, HIMX, ABM, CMCSA, EXEL, DIS, KTOS, FRGI, AXS, LEG, CBS and DCI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CAB 2) CHRW 3) GPRO 4) NBR 5) CMCSA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BKS 2) CRZO 3) BBRG 4) LUK 5) MO
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Drugs +1.8% 2) Gold & Silver +1.8% 3) Gaming +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NLNK, CAB, XOMA, GPRO, TWOU, INSM, NOMD, RH, EFAV, BMS, ANAB, ITCI, KFY, GWRE, BUD, ZGNX, VYGR, VRNT, TITN, SGH, AMBA, FEYE, MTRX, ABBV, NAV, MTRX, CONN, VSAR, BMY, KBR, VRNT and ETSY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ALNY 2) ETE 3) VRTX 4) ABBV 5) HOG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RH 2) ITCI 3) FEYE 4) GPRO 5) BMY
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 +1.5 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 20.25 +1.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.96 +.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (BKS)/-.12
  • (DCI)/.53
  • (HOV)/-.01
  • (JW/A)/.62
  • (FNSR)/.40
  • (RDFN)/.05
  • (PAY)/.36
  • (ZUMZ)/-.06
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 245K versus 236K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1945K versus 1942K prior.
  • Final 2Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +.3% versus a prior estimate of a +.6% gain.
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +3,672,780 barrels versus a -5,392,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -5,976,110 barrels versus a +35,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,994,560 barrels versus a +7348,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -10.2% versus a +1.2% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, ECB Decision/Press Conference, Japan GDP report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Merrill Media/Communications/Entertainment Conference, (FAST) August Sales report, (PSMT) Monthly Sales report, (B) investor day and the (SQM) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Debt Ceiling Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.59 -5.23%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.90 +.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.77 -.26%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.80 -4.94%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +55.6%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -27.35%
  • NYSE Arms .74 +7.65%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.57 -.65%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 453.0 -.93%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.52 -.04%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.44 +3.72%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.19 +5.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.20 -.5%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.387 -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.75 -5.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.89 +.27%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.06% +6.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 80.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.39/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.80 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.90 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.90 +.8 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 +1.0 basis point
  • 13.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 39.5% chance at Dec. 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +137 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long