Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Russian Stocks, Ruble Rebound as Sanctions Seen Muted So Far.
• Biden Ups Russia Sanctions, Calls Ukraine Invasion Underway.
  
• Blinken Says Meeting With Lavrov Is Canceled: Ukraine Update.  
• Ukraine Power Plant Damaged During Two Days of Shelling.
• AllianceBernstein Joins Pimco in Turning Cool on China’s Bonds.  
• U.S. Futures Rise as Traders Mull Russia Sanctions: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Slips as U.S. Avoids Harshest Sanctions, Iran Supply Beckons.
• NYC Begins Plan to Move Homeless From Subway as Crime Surges.  
• Biden Delays Oil Permits as Gasoline Prices Surge on Ukraine. 
• Crypto, Soros and the Global Drive to Fund a Revolution in Myanmar.  
• Mask Mandate Likely to Be Extended, U.S. Flight Attendants Say.   
• Activision to Delay Next Year’s Planned Call of Duty Game.   
• S&P 500 Charts Are So Bad Even Bulls Are Looking to Adjust Bets.

Wall Street Journal:

• Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Tyranny. Ottawa is now freezing bank accounts as if the truckers are terrorists.
• With Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, a New Cold War Arrives. U.S. and European sanctions are still too weak against Putin.
• How Much Could Sanctions Hurt Russia’s Economy?
• Push to Relax Cannabis Laws Hits Roadblocks.
• Meta’s Facebook Escalates TikTok Rivalry, Launches Reels Globally.
• Volkswagen’s Porsche IPO Won’t Put Investors First.
• Winter Storms With Snow, Sleet and Frigid Temperatures Forecast to Hit Much of U.S.

Fox News:   

• Biden torpedoes meeting with Putin after Russia does the ONE thing Joe told them not to do.
• NATO warns 'full scale attack' on Kyiv in the works by Russia, 'real risk' of full blown war with Europe.
• New sanctions, 'defensive' troop movements unleashed by US as WH denounces 'invasion'.
• Trump warns China will follow Russia's lead after WH declares Putin invaded.

CNBC.com:

• Biden says U.S. will sanction Russian banks, sovereign debt and individuals after Ukraine ‘invasion’.
• Russia’s Ukraine incursion could complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
• Covid infections plummet 90% from U.S. pandemic high, states lift mask mandates.
• One key to Home Depot’s growth strategy: Nabbing bigger orders from home professionals.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palo Alto Networks, Virgin Galactic & more.
• Consumers lost $5.8 billion to fraud last year — up 70% over 2020.

MarketWatch:     

• S&P 500 enters its first correction in 2 years as Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates. What history says happens next.

Zero Hedge:

• Blinken Abruptly Cancels Lavrov Meeting As Ukraine's President Calls Up Reserve Forces.
• Critical Race Theory Makes Its Way Into Mandatory Trainings At Top US Medical Schools, New Database Shows. 
• "Bronco Ice Mountain": Thousands Of Ford Broncos Are Stacking Up In A Michigan Lot.
• Shooting Erupts At Popular Mexican Beach Resort Again As Cartel Turf-War Escalates.
• Watch: Two More Black Hawks Down In Utah.
• Ivy League Parents Fearful To Speak Out Publicly As Lia Thomas Dominates Their Daughters.
• Market Sentiment Has Never Been Worse And Everyone Is Hedging For A Crash.
• Small Frackers Race To Drill As OPEC+ And Big Oil Majors See No Need To Pump Faster.
• Deeper Analysis: Trump Transition Data Was Passed To The CIA.
• "Very Similar To 2018": Why Wall Street's Biggest Bear Sees Stocks Tumbling To 3,800 By Late March.
• Qatar Says It Can't Replace Russian Gas Supplies To Europe.
• Canadian Lawmaker Claims Single Mom Had Bank Account Frozen After Donating $50 To Freedom Convoy.
• Russia Evacuates Diplomats From Ukraine In Ominous Sign.
• Our Leaders Made A Pact With The Devil, And Now The Devil Wants His Due.
• Pre-Amble To WW3 Sends Stocks & Bonds Lower; Gold & Crude Higher.

Newsmax:   

• Gallup: Just 36 Percent Approve of Biden's Ukraine Tack.
• Texas Gov. Abbott Orders Probes of Alleged Child Gender-Transition Abuses.   
• Zel;enskyy Activating Reservists.
• Trump Hits ‘Weak Sanctions’ on Russia.
• Rep. Fallon: Appalling That US Didn't Lead on Russia Sanctions.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• “Potential Extinction”: 48 Top Global Scientists Sign Declaration – Demand Ban on Fauci’s “Gain of Function” Research.
• BREAKING HUGE: Dr. Shiva Uses AI to Perform Ballot Image Analysis of Maricopa County’s 2020 Election Results – Identifies Thousands of Issues in State Awarded to Biden by 10,000 Votes.
• China Strengthens Its Hold on Hong Kong Ordering Compulsory COVID Tests for All Citizens.
• Biden Stares Blankly, Picks at His Teeth When Reporter Asks if He May Have “Underestimated” Vladimir Putin (VIDEO).
• France Deactivates 4 Million Vaccine Passports, Forcing Double-Jabbed Citizens to Decide Between Taking the Booster or Being Shunned From Society (VIDEO).
• TRUMP IS RIGHT AGAIN: German UN Delegation Laughed at President Trump When He Warned Them of Reliance on Russian Oil (VIDEO).
• 7-Year-Old Boy Allegedly Choked, Put In Restraint Hold, Thrown Across Room For Not Wearing Mask In School.
• Biden Says Defending “Freedom” for Ukraine will Mean Higher Gas Prices Than His Already Record High Gas Prices.
• Democrat Candidate for US House Gets Drunk at Little Girls’ Sleepover, Swears at Them, Insists She’s Woman of Color, Throws Up in Their Shoes.
• “You Are Certainly Facing a Potentially Lengthy Term of Imprisonment” – Canadian Trucker Protester Tamara Lich Will Remain in Jail At Least 8 Days and Likely More.
• EXCLUSIVE: 12 News Did NOT Air AZ Gubernatorial Candidate Kari Lake’s Ad Exposing Corrupt Fake News During Purchased Time Slot – Why?
• Elderly Woman Trampled by Ottawa Police Horse Identified- Is Mohawk Elder and Grandmother, She Is Currently in Hospital.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘I Have No Regrets’: Enes Kanter Freedom, Ousted from NBA, Vows to Continue Speaking Out Against CCP’s Abuses.

Twitter: 

• @JesseKellyDC - Western governments turning against their own citizens is the biggest story on earth right now. Nothing else comes close. That is THE story that’s changing the world.
• @backtolife_2022 - Post-COVID world, The Fourth Industrial Revolution and The Great Reset. (video)
• @JackPosobiec - Nationwide trucker strike far more effective than an American convoy that will be immediately infiltrated.
• @the_ragex -  US Secretary of Defense orders 800 soldiers, twenty AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and up to eight F-35 fighter jets be sent to the eastern flank of NATO.

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NEW - Chinese media outlet - owned by the Communist Party - has accidentally leaked its directives to not publish any anti-Russian or pro-Western content. NOW - Thousands at the Père-Lachaise cemetery in Paris to pay their respects to Luc Montagnier, the French biologist and virologist and Nobel laureate in medicine who dared to ask questions about the vaccines and the origin of the coronavirus. (video) NOW - U.S. Capitol fence goes up again ahead of Biden’s State of the Union address. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 760,101 Reports(+6,620 from prior week) Through February 11th, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.25 +.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 54.5 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.44 +.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,081.0 +12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.8 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%.

• S&P 500 futures +.42%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.54%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BCO)/1.46
• (FDP)/-.07
• (JACK)/1.91
• (LL)/.25
• (LOW)/1.69
• (TAP)/.85
• (OSTK)/.26
• (TJX)/.91
• (TUP)/.54
• (WWW)/.41
  

After the Close:

• (Y)/17.51
• (BKNG)/13.52
• (EBAY)/.98
• (HTZ)/.74
• (IR)/.59
• (NTAP)/1.29
• (RMAX)/.56
• (RGR)/1.94
• (SUM)/.25
• (OLED)/1.03
  

Economic Releases

• None of note 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Consumer Confidence report, 5Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports, Barclays Industrial Conference, Wolf Auto/Auto Tech/Mobility Conference, (CMI) analyst day and the Citi Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Fed "Behind the Curve" Concerns, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.8 +7.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,001.0 -116.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.44 +.58%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.4 +1.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -11.1%

• NYSE Arms .87 -20.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.18 +.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.15 -.63%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.86 -2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.12 +2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 229.75 -.18%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.40 +.19% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  106.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.29 -.14%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.45 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 41.0 -9.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.95 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.7 +15.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.2 +24.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.4 +1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 189 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.0%(-4.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -69/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -69.6%(-13.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +296 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +29 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 36.9% of Issues Advancing, 58.6% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 169 New Lows
• 38.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,008.0 -108.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,239.0 -.69%
  
• Vix 29.4 +5.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.05 -10.3%
• TRIN/Arms .93 -15.5%

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Putin Orders Forces to Separatist Areas of Ukraine After Decree.
• Hedging the Russian Ruble Hasn’t Been so Expensive Since 2015. 
• U.S. Orders Personnel Out of Ukraine on Threat From Russia.
• Trudeau Maintains State of Emergency, Says Threats Remain.
• Russian Stocks Tumble Most Since Crimea Annexation in 2014.  
• Stocks Retreat, Ruble Weakens on Ukraine Tension: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Surges as Ukraine Tensions Mount and Market Giants Bullish.  
• OPEC Delegates See Another Small Supply Boost Despite Pressure.  
• Fed Official Suggests Half-Point March Hike on Table If Data Hot.  
• JPMorgan Strategists Say Stock Pessimism Is ‘In Vogue,’ But Wrong.  
• Marathon’s Huge Louisiana Refinery Rocked by Explosion, Fire.  
• Standard General, Apollo Near $24-Per-Share Tegna Deal.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia to Recognize Independence of Breakaway Ukraine Regions, Putin Says.
• Shutting Down Support for the Truckers. Donors to Canada’s ‘freedom convoy’ are harassed and boycotted.
• Kyiv Rejects Russian Claim of Incursion by Ukrainian Forces.
• Frackers Push Into Once-Dead Shale Patches as Oil Nears $100 a Barrel.
• Buying an Electric Car? Get Your Home Ready for Charging.
• Exodus From Bond Funds Is Mitigating Stock Market’s Swoon.
• For White-Collar Workers, It’s Prime Time for a Raise.
• Worried About Inflation and Supply Constraints? Try Being a Small Business.
• Yale Law School to Cover Full Tuition and Fees for Lowest-Income Students.
• Putin’s Endgame: Unravel the Post-Cold War Agreements That Humiliated Russia.

Fox News:   

• Harris ripped again for being a laughing stock on world stage during critical foreign policy moment.
• LIVE UPDATES: US issues 'disturbing' warning about what Russia may do to Ukrainians after an invasion.
• Biden's trans athlete stance under scrutiny as Lia Thomas dominates.
• Vice President Kamala Harris stumbles yet again on the world stage.
• University slaps down policy that favored 'non-white folks'. 
• Dem mayor caught holding MASKLESS ball after reimposing mask mandate.

CNBC:

• Next bitcoin bull run won’t happen until end 2024, says top crypto exchange co-founder.
• U.S. warns that Moscow has compiled post-invasion kill lists.
• Putin mulls recognizing separatist eastern Ukrainian regions as independent.
• This company switched to a 4-day workweek—91% of its workers say they’re happier.
• Trump’s Truth Social tops downloads on Apple App Store, many users waitlisted.

Zero Hedge:

• Putin Declares Formal Recognition Of Ukraine Separatist Regions As Sovereign States.
• Putin Orders Peacekeeping Operation In Ukraine's Breakaway Regions. 
• With Ratings In Death Throes, CNN Finds New Shiny Object In Ukraine Drama. 
• It "Was Not Made To Be Housing" - NYC Mayor Unveils Crackdown On Homeless "Cancerous Sore" On Subway System. 
• Equity Futures Open Down Hard; Gold, Oil, & Treasuries Spike. 
• Border Crisis Can't Wait Three More Years For A New Administration To Fix: Russ Vought. 
• Oil Prices Will Be Above $100 For A "Prolonged Period".
• Europe, US Preparing To Impose Sanctions On Russia. 
• Canada Moves To Make Asset Freezing Under Emergencies Act Permanent.
• In The Age Of COVID, We're Reminded An Unjust Law Is No Law At All.
• Greenwald: The Neoliberal War On Dissent In The West.
• What Is The CDC Hiding? Agency Admits Withholding Widespread Vaccine Efficacy Data. 
• Chinese Tech Stocks Suffer Biggest 2-Day Rout Since July Amid Fears Beijing Will Unleash More Crackdowns.
• "Suisse Secrets": Massive Leak Of Credit Suisse Bank Records Exposes $100 Billion Held By 18,000 Spies, Strongmen And Criminals.
• Limits To Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer.
• Putin "Will Make Decision Today" Whether To Recognize Separatist Republics.
• Canada Moves To Make Asset Freezing Under Emergencies Act Permanent.
• Ukraine Crisis Version Of Iraq WMD: Putin To Send "LGBTQI+ Persons" To "Camps".
• It's Another Housing Bubble And The Fed Is Holding The Pin.
• CCP Asks China's Banks To Dig Up More 'Dirt' On Jack Ma & Ant Group.
• The US Will Be A Net Oil Importer In 2022.
• Futures Tumble After Deadly Escalation In Ukraine Crisis.
• Optimism Fades After Russia Says "No Concrete Plans" For Biden-Putin Summit.
• The European Central Bank Is Trapped Like The Fed.
• England To Scrap Mandatory COVID Self-Isolation As Hospitalisations Continue To Drop.
• The Next Step For The World Economic Forum.
• Trump's "Truth Social" Platform Set For President's Day Release In Apple App Store.
• Extreme Backwardation Suggests One Of The Tightest Oil Markets Ever.

NewsMax: 

• Russia Downplays Putin-Biden Summit Hopes: No Firm Plans.
• Rep. Grothman: Invasion Could Worsen Inflation.
• US to UN: Russia Planning Targeted Killings, Kidnappings, Detentions.  
• Rep. Westerman: Biden's Concern on Ukraine 'Too Little, Too Late'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• INCREDIBLE! Arizona Gubernatorial Candidate Kari Lake DESTROYS Fake News Media – Kari’s First Political Ad Will Expose the BS on Arizona Stations During Their News Programs. 
• Canadian MP Says Single Mom’s Bank Account Frozen For Donating $50 to Freedom Convoy.
• NY Lt. Governor Tests Positive For Covid After Attending Maskless Democrat Convention with Hillary Clinton.
• WATCH: Candidate for AZ Secretary of State Mark Finchem Releases New Ad: “DONALD TRUMP WON. IT IS TIME TO DECERTIFY”. 
• Democrat New Orleans Mayor Caught Holding Maskless Ball After Reimposing Mask Mandate, Keeping School Kids Muzzled.
• RINO Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers Files to Run for Senate After Turning On Constituents and Allowing Election Fraud.
• US Trucker Convoy Organizer Says They Will Be ‘Giant Boa Constrictor,’ Squeezing, Choking, and Swallowing DC.
• 26-Year-Old Trans Child Molester Gloats Over Light Sentence Thanks to Marxist DA Gascon, Makes Crude, Sexual Remarks About 10-Year-Old Victim in Jailhouse Phone Calls. 
• EXCLUSIVE: After 25 Deaths, $1-$2 Billion in Damages, and Over 2,000 Policemen and Policewomen Injured, US Companies Have Contributed or Promised Nearly $1 Billion to BLM and/or Social Justice Groups. 
• FBI Knowingly Ignored Massive Evidence of Democrat Party Ballot Trafficking Operations in Every Major Battleground State — NOW They Dare Tweet on Election Integrity.
• Joe Biden Pokes the Bear: Biden is Flying a B52 Bomber Over Poland — Via Flight Tracker.
• GOP Lawmaker to Introduce Bill to Grant Asylum to Canadian Truckers Persecuted by Canada’s Trudeau Regime.
• EU Parliamentarian Representing former Communist State Calls on International Community to Isolate Tyrannical Trudeau Regime.
• CDC Officials Admit Agency Has Withheld Critical Covid Information From the Public, Including Data About Breakthrough Infections, Over Fears of “Vaccine Hesitancy”.
• EXPLOSIVE: Fight Breaks Out Between Head Coaches After Michigan – Wisconsin Men’s Basketball Game – Melee Ensues.
  

The Epoch Times:

• ‘My Heart Aches Watching This’: Athletes Speak Out on Human Rights as Beijing Olympics Come to an End.
• China Sanctions US Arms Suppliers Over Sales to Taiwan.

Twitter:

• @UkrWarReport - The Pentagon expects Vladimir Putin to order troop deployment to the territory of the newly-recognized DPR and LPR as soon as tonight - FOX News.
• @risemelbourne - USA Anti Mandate Freedom Convoy Colorado and Montana join the Club...It's happening Everywhere...The Variant of Concern is Freedom. (video)
• @terror_alarm -  #BREAKING #China mobilizes its Marine Corps and amphibious commando units.
• @Lukewearechange - This is the Canadian government's health policy in one video. (video)
• @stillgray -  CDC withheld massive amounts of COVID data to 'prevent vaccine hesitancy' - Report. 
• @The_Real_Fly - The US is seeing preparations for a potential broad invasion of Ukraine, including loading amphibious ships and loading equipment for airborne units. In other important news, this is what NATO is working on now:  The Gender & Hybrid Deep Dive is the first among a series of future sessions, including Gender & Resilience, Gender & Deterrence and Gender & Climate Change.
• @TPostMillennial - Trump's new TRUTH Social platform skyrockets to #1 spot in Apple's App Store.
• @PMBreakingNews - Breaking: Al Jazeera claims it has footage of Russian troops entering Donetsk. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 760,101 Reports(+6,620 from prior week) Through February 11, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.5 +3.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 55.25 +1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.36 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,035.0 -82.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.7 +5.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.0%.
• S&P 500 futures -1.7%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -2.2%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AWI)/1.05
• (CBRL)/1.61
• (DISH)/.87
• (EXPD)/2.09
• (FLR)/.27
• (HD)/3.17
• (KFY)/1.48
• (LPX)/1.99
• (M)/1.99
• (MDT)/1.37

After the Close:

• (A)/1.18
• (BCC)/2.25
• (CZR)/-.79
• (FANG)/3.36
• (MELI)/1.18
• (MOS)/1.98
• (PANW)/1.65
• (PSA)/3.45
• (RNG)/.37
• (TDOC)/-.54
• (TOL)/1.15
• (RIG)/-.12
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The 4Q House Price Purchase Index.  
• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.1% gain in Nov. 
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +1.05% versus a +1.18% gain in Nov.
  

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for February is estimated to rise to 56.0 versus a reading of 55.5 in January.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 110.0 versus 113.8 in Jan.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 10.0 versus 8.0 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, German IFO, 2Y T-Note auction, Citi Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference, (CNHI) capital markets event and the Baird Sustainability Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.