Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GIS)/1.07
  

After the Close: 

• (BB)/-.06
• (FUL)/1.04
• (MU)/-1.61
• (FIZZ)/.38
• (WOR)/1.90
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Advance Good Trade Balance for May is estimated at -$93.8B versus -$96.8B in April.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in April.
• Retail Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,266,430 barrels versus a -3,831,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +59,860 barrels versus a +479,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +240,430 barrels versus a +434,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.23% versus a -.6% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Italian PPI report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (LOW) fireside chat, (AGCO) tech event and the (CP) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -17.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 +2.9
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 71.5% of Issues Advancing, 25.9% Declining
• 74 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 48.4%(+3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.0 +2.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,333.8 +.34%
• 1-Day Vix 8.5 -23.4%
  
• Vix 13.6 -4.3% 
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -12.5%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -3.4%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Economy Gloom Worsens With Weak Consumer Spending Data.
• Yellen Plans July China Trip While US Preps Investment Curbs.
• EU Looks Into Blocking Out the Sun as Climate Efforts Falter.
• BHP Urges Nations to Avoid Critical Minerals Protectionism.
• Putin Blasts Wagner ‘Traitors’ After Prigozhin Denies Coup Plot.
• US Denies Any Role in Russia Uprising as Allies Watch and Wait.
• Asian Stocks Fluctuate Amid Recession Fears: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies With Russian Instability Giving Way to Growth Fears.
• Student Loan-Relief Backers Warn Biden ‘Failure Isn’t an Option’.
• NYC Is Cleared for First-in-US Congestion Tolls as Soon as April.
• Goldman Taps Solomon Ally Montag for Board Amid Disquiet in Ranks.
• Pickleball Injuries May Cost Americans Nearly $400 Million This Year, According to UBS.
• Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says Stock Risks Rarely Been Higher.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Stresses US "Not Involved" In Wagner Uprising; Furious Putin Says West 'Wanted Russians To Kill Each Other'
• Blinken Backs Biden Calling Xi A 'Dictator': Beijing Trip Was A Bust.
• Maher Slams 'Arrogant' Press Over RFK Jr. Coverage As 80% Of Dems Want Biden To Debate.
• "My Fear Is When Push Finally Comes To Shove" Copper Can Go Up 10 Times, Warns Billionaire Mine-Owner.
• 65% Of Teenagers Are Targets Of "Sextortion" Schemes: Study.
• 'Deeply Unpopular' Biden 'Could Get Crushed' In 2024: Piper.
• Companies Should Focus On Their Products, Not Preach ESG To The Public.
• Mike Wilson's Slide Deck Of Doom.
• Musk's Twitter Faces Millions In Fines After New 'Disinformation' Laws Released In Australia.
• Fox News Unveils Replacement For Tucker Carlson.
• Woke Hollywood Sinks Into Irrelevance After Multiple Box Office Failures.
• Tourette type of market.
• The AMA Labels BMI 'Racist'.
• John Kerry Skewered By French TV Host After Condemning Putin Invasion: "Why Isn't Bush Judged In The Same Way?".
• US stocks were mostly lower amid big tech weakness ahead of quarter-end - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Victor Davis Hanson: What The Left Has Left For America.
• "This Is Utter BS": New York City Considering New Rules To Ban Emissions From Coal And Wood Fired Pizza Ovens.
• Big tech losses weigh on the market ahead of month-end - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Corruption Of POTUS, SCOTUS, And SCROTUS.
• Money Supply Slump Spells Private Sector Recession.
• Value Dramatically Outperforms Growth As Bonds & Bitcoin Slide.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Wagner head Prigozhin denies trying to oust Russian leader.
• The Right Must Take the Initiative With Ballot Measures. Progressives use them to push their agendas in red states, while blue states never get a chance to vote on popular conservative policies.
• A Wealth-Tax Watershed for the Supreme Court. The Justices will hear Moore v. U.S., which asks if ‘income’ under the law can be an unrealized gain.
• China’s ‘Tesla Killer’ Stumbles Amid EV Price War.
• ‘My Kid Can’t Sleep’: Gun Violence Drives Denver to Return Armed Police to Schools.
• Senior Attorney Helped FTX Founder Misuse Customer Funds, Report Says.
• OPEC Woos Tiny Nation That Sits Atop Massive Oil Field.

CNBC.com:

• Microsoft CEO Nadella said last year goal to hit revenue of $500 billion by 2030.
• Google execs admit users are ‘not quite happy’ with search after Reddit blackouts.
• Robinhood cutting 7% of its full-time employees.
• Ford conducts engineering layoffs in U.S. and Canada.

MarketWatch:

• Supreme Court agrees to hear a case on taxing paper profits. It could be a $300 billion ruling.
• Tesla investors should pump the brakes on Supercharger enthusiasm, one bear says
• HELOCs are back. Cash-strapped borrowers are tapping into a $33 trillion pile of home equity.

Newsmax:

• DeSantis: 'Turn the Screws' on Sanctuary Jurisdictions.
• DeSantis: Will End 'Birthright Citizenship' If Elected President.
• Ex-CIA Analyst: Putin 'Staged' Prigozhin's Coup Attempt.

Fox News:

• Bud Light sponsors Pride parade with naked men as children watched in crowd
• Hunter Biden scrutiny intensifies — and the White House is continuing to dodge questions
• Amazon announces massive $7.8 billion investment in red state

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• French President Macron Calls for International Tax to Finance Climate Scam,
• Joe Biden to Indian Prime Minister and Tech Giant CEOs at White House: “I Sold a Lot of State Secrets and a Lot of Very Important Things” ..This Even Made the WH Transcripts!
• Election Integrity for Wisconsin SOS: Meeting to Appoint WEC Administrator – Tell Lawmakers to Block Meagan Wolfe’s Reappointment,
• “I Believe This Was One Massive Cover-Up by DOJ – House Should Call in Obama to Testify” – General Michael Flynn Joins Roger Stone to Discuss Durham Report and MUCH MORE on WABC77 (AUDIO).
• Hero of the Left: Volodymyr Zelensky Cancels Elections Next Year in Ukraine if Country Is Still at War with Russia.
• New Analysis of White House Visitor Logs Reveals Notable Gaps and Missing Names.
• STUNNING: Pope Francis Sent Two Bishops to Confront-Harass Bishop Strickland After He Led March Against the Satanic Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence.
• McCarthy Floats Impeachment of Merrick Garland by July 6 Over IRS Whistleblower Testimony He Interfered in Hunter Criminal Probe (VIDEO).
• Multiple States Weigh Charging Residents for EVERY Mile They Drive to Punish American Workers – Here’s Why Biden is Responsible.
• Rep. Tenney: Congress Has Evidence Joe Biden Was in the Room With Hunter When Shakedown WhatsApp Message Sent to Chinese Business Associate (Video).
• Pelosi Wants to Violate Constitution By Placing Term Limits on The Supreme Court but Not Congress.
• IMF Proposes Global Central Bank Digital Currency in Move Toward Cashless Society – So They Can Control the People (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Harvesting Open-Source Intelligence for Military Advantage: Report.
• CCP Mouthpiece Labels New Zealand Diplomacy as ‘Example’ to Western Nations.

Twitter: 

• @Breaking911 - REPORTER: “Did you lie about never speaking to Hunter about his business dealings?” BIDEN: “No.” (video)
• @JoeyMannarinoUS - Video from Minneapolis Pride. Even if you vote for Joe Biden, you can't possibly think that having kids watch this man with more hair on his back than his head twerk is appropriate. What kind of man decides that he wants to twerk for children anyway? This is a total stain on the LGBTQ+ community and if they don't remove this stuff from their parades, they want it there. (video)
• @WSJmakets - Traders are piling into bullish options bets that would profit if the recent stock rally continues.
• @LawrenceSellin - At the risk of her own life @DrLiMengYAN1 will be forever remembered as the ethical scientist who alerted the world about the laboratory origin of COVID-19, its link to China's biowarfare program and the key scientists, both Chinese and American, responsible for its creation.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 965,617 Reports(+1,228 from prior week) Through June 9th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.5 +3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 110.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.7 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 -12.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 +.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Growth Concerns, Cooling FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Pharma/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 +5.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.7 -2.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.7 +.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.0 -1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -36.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.6 +.59%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 390.5 +.08%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 350.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.9 +.94% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 298.07 +.71%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.1 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 223.07 +.14%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -.34%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 718.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.7 -.95%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.30% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour  -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -140.2 -8.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.2 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +14.7% +15.5 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.53 +.16:  Growth Rate +3.5% unch., P/E 18.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +.3 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 212.82 +.55: Growth Rate +39.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 35.4 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.26 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -101.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.95% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 66.6%(+1.7 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 61.7%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +124 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -1.2% 2) Software -1.0% 3) Internet -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WEST, PFE, CVAC, KMX, PAX, MARA, SUPN, WKC, CCL, CUK, MRCY, AKRO, INTA and BMEA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CGC 2) TOL 3) BB 4) FGEN 5) WBA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) IEP 3) CCL 4) PLYA 5) WKC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Oil Service +2.4% 2) Regional Banks +2.1% 3) REITs +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SLRN, SLG, ENFN, CABA, IONQ, ATEC, OPCH and VICR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OPCH 2) WW 3) SLG 4) TOL 5) APLD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MLTX 2) ORIC 3) INVE 4) SLRN 5) APLD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume