Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Gambling +2.3% 2) Internet +2.2% 3) Computer Hardware +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RCEL, RIOT, MARA, COIN, SSYS, ALGM, MLKN, APPS, U, PPC, RDFN, PLUG, TOST, MSTR, NTNX, AB, TTD, CXM, MGM, STAA, DENN and HOOD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BKKT 2) RXRX 3) DLO 4) APP 5) CAR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PPSI 2) CAMT 3) TTD 4) AFRM 5) BCRX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLK)/8.50
• (C)/1.31
• (JPM)/3.97
• (STT)/2.10
• (UNH)/6.01
• (WFC)/1.15
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.6% decline in May.
• The Export Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -1.9% decline in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for July is estimated to rise to 65.5 versus 64.4 in June. 
• Univ. of Mich. 1-Year Inflation Expectations for July is estimated to fall to +3.1% versus a +3.3% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 -.5
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 68.7% of Issues Advancing, 28.7% Declining
• 141 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 57.9%(+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.2 -.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,471.7 +.77%
• 1-Day Vix 9.0 -15.3%
  
• Vix 13.5 -.5% 
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -10.6%
• TRIN/Arms .98 -32.2%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US Bill Aims to Counter China Control of Congo Critical Minerals.
• McDonald’s China Owners Carlyle, Trustar Plan $4 Billion Exit.
• Investors Slash China Local Government Bond Tenors to Shortest On Record.
• Biggest Foreign Stock Fund in Taiwan Shows Shift Away From China.
• NATO Is Papering Over the Cracks After Zelenskiy Loses His Cool.
• Asian Equities Advance as Fed Rate Peak Nears: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Steadies Ahead of US Inflation Data as Russian Flows Drop.
• Inflation at 3% Flags End of Emergency, Turning Point for Fed.
• Dollar’s Epic Drop Sends Franc and Yen Surging as Traders Weigh Fed Path.
• Pensions With $500 Billion of Assets Are Going Bargain Hunting.
• Second Frank Executive Charged in JPMorgan Fraud.
• Epstein-Staley Emails Reveal Friendship Forged at JPMorgan.
• Remote Work to Wipe Out $800 Billion From Office Values, McKinsey Says.

Zero Hedge: 

• Joe Biden’s Climate Policies Weaken The U.S. And Strengthen China.
• "War Effort In Shambles As Hawks Turn On Each Other" At NATO Summit.
• Waiting For 'Buyers To Come': Unsold Electric Vehicles Piling Up In Car Dealerships, Says Report.
• Data Brokers To Be Barred From Selling Your Location Data Under Proposed Massachusetts Law.
• CCP Poised to Expand Security Footprint In Latin America With New Port In Argentina.
• Biden Administration Helping CCP By Restricting Domestic Mining: Minnesota Senator.
• Samsung Fights Back Against Beijing's Tech Theft, Sues Chinese Firm BOE Over Patent Infringement.
• China Warns NATO Must Not Ever Expand Into Asia-Pacific.
• Fear smoked.
• MbS To Blinken: 'No' To Israeli Normalization, 'Yes' To Syrian Reconciliation.
• Disney's Feminist Indiana Jones Sequel Bombs Hard – Media Pretends They Don't Know Why.
• 'Crucified': Black Georgia State Rep Switches To Republican Party.
• Trump Blasts Cluster Bombs For Ukraine: 'Biden Dragging US Into WW3!'.
• Not Just Bud Light: Anheuser-Busch’s Other Beers Are Also Suffering.
• US stocks gained, while the dollar and yields dropped after softer US inflation - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• National Poll Shows RFK Jr. Tops All Other Politicians In Net Approval-Rating.
• Dollar hits YTD trough after CPI-induced rip in stocks and bonds - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Soft CPI Sparks Bond-Buying Bonanza, Meme Stock Meltup, Gold Gains As Dollar Pukes.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Tampa: Why Gen Z and Millennial Tourists Are Flocking to This Retirement Mecca.
• SEC Moves to Shore Up One of America's Most Popular Investments.
• Disney Extends CEO Robert Iger’s Contract Through 2026.
• Lina Khan Is Losing Her Fight Against Big Tech.
• Inflation Isn’t Conquered Yet. Real wages have only begun to increase, and the Fed isn’t done.
• A Hiker Died With a Bullet in His Chest. Why Did Police Say He Was Stabbed by a Stick?
• What AT&T and Verizon Knew About Toxic Lead Cables.
• They Had Great Credit Scores. Then They Retired.
• Chinese Hackers Spied on State and Commerce Departments.

CNBC.com:

• Elon Musk launches his new company, xAI.
• China’s metal export curbs could drive countries to diversify their supply chains.
• FTC says it will appeal to block Microsoft-Activision deal.
• How China, U.S., Russia and Ukraine tension threatens global economic growth: Jeffrey Sachs.
• From ‘Barbie’ to Formula 1, TAG Heuer is making its mark on the luxury watch market.
• Viasat stock plunges after company discloses malfunction in new satellite.
• Apple just released a preview of its next big iPhone update. Here’s what’s new.

MarketWatch:

• Tesla is looking at its best sales quarter ever.
• As food prices rise in June, analysts warn of a ‘tipping point’ for Americans.
• S&P 500 could top the 4,500 mark, but not for long, says Oxford Economics.
• Nvidia could follow ‘blowout’ outlook with more massive upside, analyst says.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Comer to Newsmax: Key Biden Whistleblowers Set to Testify Next Week
• DOJ Wants Longer Sentences for Rhodes and Other Oath Keepers.
• FBI Whistleblower: FBI Incentivizes Higher Crime Stats

Fox News:

• Acclaimed surgeon shot to death by irate patient in targeted attack.
• Republicans erupt over email exposing ‘ultimate purpose’ of Hunter’s Burisma involvement.
• Harris severely mocked for latest word salad — this time trying to explain AI.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Wray Refuses to Say Whether Joe Biden Took Money From Burisma or Any Other Foreign Companies (VIDEO).
• Cratering Bud Light Reportedly Receives the Painful “Star of Death” from Major Retailer (PHOTOS).
• “SHAME ON YOU!” – Rep. Troy Nehls DESTROYS Chris Wray Over Jan 6 – Catches Him in Lies on Child Pornography Cases – BATTERS HIM ON RAY EPPS!
• OUCH! Matt Gaetz ABSOLUTELY DESTROYS Crooked FBI Chief Chris Wray with UNFORGETTABLE FINAL WORD! (VIDEO).
• Academy of Breastfeeding Medicine: “Inducing Lactation May Present More of a Challenge for Transgender Individuals.” — CDC Highlights Stunning Scientific Discoveries From Clown World in Official Handout.
• Biden Whisked Away From Helsinki Airport in 40-Vehicle Motorcade Hours After Claiming Climate Change “The Single Greatest Threat to Humanity” (VIDEO).
• FBI Asks Americans to Report Crime to Them in Recent Tweet – Then Are Overwhelmed with Reports on Their Own Criminal Activity.

The Epoch Times:

• China Passing Laws, Building Infrastructure for Wartime, Expert Says.
• The CCP’s Role in the Globalist Agenda: Trevor Loudon.
• US Companies Aiding China’s Human Rights Violations Under Spotlight at Congressional Hearing.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 966,895 Reports(+1,278 from prior week) Through June 16th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.75 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.7 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.8 +.06%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 unch.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 -.30%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on More Dovish Fed Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Dollar Weakness, Metals & Mining/Regional Bank Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -7.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.8 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 162.3 -.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.2 -9.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 +2.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.47 +101.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.8 -3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.9 -1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 375.0 +12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.5 -4.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 266.73 -4.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.7 -2.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 207.07 -2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.89 +.35%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 716.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.71 +.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.6 euros/megawatt-hour  -8.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.7 -4.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -134.5 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.9 +3.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) -20.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.55 +.05:  Growth Rate +3.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 215.97 +.39: Growth Rate +41.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 35.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.15 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -88.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.29% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% -16.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.35% +13.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 78.8%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 64.6%(+10.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +166 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +85 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -1.5% 2) Cybersecurity -1.5% 3) Airlines -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RBLX, U, FCN, MASI, ELV, COIN, AFYA, ACHC, CNC, RDFN, ZS, AYX, NET, PANW, PTGX, CSTL and SILK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LNC 2) IQ 3) DVA 4) COTY 5) MCHP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SILK 2) RDFN 3) CNC 4) LCID 5) CSCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume