Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,338.9 -2.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 34,124.6 -1.5%

• NASDAQ 13,285.6 -3.1%

• Russell 2000 1,781.37 -3.7%

• NYSE FANG+ 7,352.5 -4.8% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 31.59 -9.1%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 136.91 -6.9%

• Wilshire 5000 43,239.8 -2.6%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,693.20 -3.25%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,516.96 -2.44%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 746.99 -1.31%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,225.7 -1.86%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,577.73 -4.4%

• Transports 15,037.86 -2.0%

• Utilities 876.64 -1.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 86.36 +.03%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.63 -1.52%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 191.59 -.85%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.78 +.45%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 457,881 -1.4%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.8 +36.1%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -835 -753
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.8 -22.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 326,871 +9.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,791,696 +5.2%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +.99%

• OEX Put/Call 1.42 -16.9%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 -5.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.11 +26.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.2 -.96%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -22.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .06 -41.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +17.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .44% -53.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 26.1 +21.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.9 +.50%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.30 -.95%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,360.17 +.12%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  54.3 -3.7
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.636 Trillion -.12%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$17.876 Million

• AAII % Bulls 31.3 -9.0%

• AAII % Bears 34.6 +18.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 285.93 -1.3%

• Crude Oil 89.98/bbl. -1.92%

• Reformulated Gasoline 257.57 -5.5%

• Natural Gas 2.62 -.95%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.79 euros/megawatt-hour +9.0%
  

• Heating Oil 332.3 -2.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 157.5 (1,000/metric ton) -4.6%
  

• Gold 1,925.7 +.14%
• Silver 23.58 +2.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 408.7 -1.4%

• Copper 369.7 -2.6%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.77%

• CME Lumber  488.0 -2.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,587.04 -1.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 332.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +4.86% -8.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.4% -2.9 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.40 +48.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 179.0 +93.3%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +2.3 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.55 +.55:  Growth Rate +9.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.1 -.8
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.29 +15.43: Growth Rate +8.4% +9.3 percentage points, P/E 27.9 -3.9
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.9 -9.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.0 +15.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.6 -3.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 72.6%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of no change, 27.4%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 11/1
  

• US Dollar Index 105.48 +.16%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,672.0 -.32%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 26,590.6 +.65%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.88 +.39%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -67.5 +4.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.43% +11.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.988 Trillion -.93% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.183 Billion +46.1%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 49.2 +2.2% (new series)
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 198.2 +5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.5 +8.5%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.5 +13.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 182.1 +9.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.6 +18.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.55 +14.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 +.07%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 82.82 -5.1%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.9% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +4.3% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.1% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% -5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.69% -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37% +2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 19.0 -3.5 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 71.7 +14.0%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 184.0 +8.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 318.0 -44.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 788.08 +10.9%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.63 +11.5%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 212.33 +4.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 906.0 -16.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 +1.0 basis point
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.7% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,183.8 +2.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 217,000 -3.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.4 +7.1%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.75% +24.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 192,100 +5.4%

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.1% -20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -7.0% -1.0 percentage point
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross YoY $73.8M +9.1%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.86/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,569.0 +13.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 871.80 -.39%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.5 +22.2%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 43.2 +4.6%

• Rail Freight Carloads 257,067 +12.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,638,133 +33.4%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -2.2%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -3.4%

Leading Sectors

• Education +1.9%

• Shipping +1.8%
• Healthcare Providers +1.5%
  

• Insurance +1.0%
  

• Computer Services +.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Electric Vehicles -5.1%
  

• Digital Health -5.5%
  

• Regional Banks -5.8%

• Gambling -7.7%
  

• Alt Energy -8.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• ATEX, MRTX, TNGX, HPK, VC, LPG, SGEN, WDC and PETQ
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• WBD, UTZ, PARA, GEL, AFRM, ICPT, RILY, ING, HTZ, SCHL and MORF
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less China Economy Pessimism, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -2.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .44%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.5 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.8 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.3 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.2 -.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 -9.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.01 +1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 321.37 +1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 318.0 -9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.1 -.78% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.6 +.82%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.5 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.23 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.02 +.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 906.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.1 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.9 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.0 -3.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.6 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +1.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.55 +.08:  Growth Rate +9.0% +.1 percent point, P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.72 +.13: Growth Rate +58.4% unch., P/E 28.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .06 -17.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 57.7%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 55.3%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.5% 2) Banks -1.3% 3) Alt Energy -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WBD, RH, PTCT, EXAS, VSAT, GEL, IMVT, AFRM, BOWL, PARA, RILY, ING, PRAA, HTZ, SCHL and MORF
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) ABEV 3) BMBL 4) EVLV 5) STNE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NEPT 2) TTOO 3) SCHL 4) ACHR 5) LAW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +1.3% 2) Steel +1.2% 3) Video Gaming +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATEX, COHR, MRTX, HPK and SGEN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) AMT 3) FREY 4) SNDX 5) COHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ATEX 2) CCG 3) MLGO 4) SQSP 5) BILI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (THO)/.95
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Sept. is estimated to rise to -13.9 versus -17.2 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Germany IFO data could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -24.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 -1.1
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 68.1% of Issues Advancing, 28.9% Declining
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 111 New Lows
• 39.2%(+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.8 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,378.5 +.61%
• 1-Day Vix 11.1 -41.8%
  
• Vix 16.3 -7.0%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.04 -7.1%
• TRIN/Arms .99 -22.1%