Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Wednesday Watch

X:

  • @elonmusk 
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @kylenabecker
  • Mark Zuckerberg, known for his Climate Change activism, shows off his new $300 million mega yacht. Zuck's 287-foot mega yacht is powered by four MTU diesel engines and can reach a top speed of 24 knots. America's elites are laughing right in our faces. (video)
  • @stclairashley
  • @wideawake_media
  • @JunkScience
  • @EndWokeness
  • @VigilantFox
  • @MarioNawful
  • ELON: AMERICA ENDS WITHOUT FREE SPEECH. "It's obviously not possible to have democratic elections if people do not have access to the information that would allow them to make the right decisions. If speech is constrained in a fundamental way, you just can't expect people to make the right decision or an informed decision because they are prevented from being informed. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @DowdEdward
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @CitizenFreePress
  • @RepMattGaetz
  • @StopAntisemites
  • @catturd2
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @OliLondonTV
  • @songpinganq
  • @Red_Pill_US
  •  @PeterSweden7
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +1.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.4 +1.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.7 unch.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.4 -.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .30 -40.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.8 -3.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.3 +.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.87 -.43%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.1 +.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 -4.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -22.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.63 +44.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$16.4M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.31 +.24%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 255.62 +1.53%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 273 -11
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -2.3%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 182.9 -2.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.8 -1.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.4 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 130.7 +.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points -.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 760.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.07 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.5 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.7 -1.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(425 of 500 reporting) +5.6% +.5 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 254.82 -.11:  Growth Rate +14.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.48 +.09: Growth Rate +35.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.3 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.00 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -37.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.8% -.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 70.4%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.0%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -2.2% 2) Alt Energy -1.8% 3) Social Media -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BBAR, COTY,  ARMK, CELH, ACM, TALO, SPT, LITE, COHR, ALGT, PINC, TIMB, AXON, NRG, RACE, ARLP, BILI, AZPN, RRX, AL, GEO, RYAAY, PRGO, TGLS, VNO, DDOG, SUZ, BWXT, ATKR, APLS, PTLO, TDC, RYTM, PLTR, FWRG, PAY, BLDR, MYE, JELD and BYON
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NKLA 2) HA 3) CFLT 4) ZI 5) FYBR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) JELD 2) PLTR 3) RYTM 4) LCID 5) MDGL
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) IBB 3) XRT 4) XLK 5) XLE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Agriculture +1.3% 2) Oil Service +1.0% 3) Healthcare Providers +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AMBC, EVER, ZETA, STRL, FN, TRUP, BAND, FMC, SEMR, AORT, SYM, ATSG, SGRY, MWA, ADEA, ALXO, CRGY, DK, HIMS, GFS, IART, ELVN, UBS, GOGO, IP, VTS, CBT, SGML, GOOD, SBLK, IFF, KVUE, CROX, VSTS, SMHI, GOLF, THS, FLYW, FIS, GATO, Z, TPX, AVNT, MTH, CGEM, MAC, AXS, HG and ASPN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CFLT 2) DIS 3) BLDR 4) JMIA 5) TPX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BVS 2) REAX 3) EVER 4) AMBC 5) ESPR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XOP 3) XLU 4) XLP 5) XLB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CHH)/1.14
  • (SATS)/-.20
  • (EMR)/1.25
  • (FOXA)/.96
  • (STWD)/.46
  • (UBER)/.22
  • (VSH)/.22
  • (WWW)/.00
After the Close: 
  • (ABNB)/.23
  • (APP)/.57
  • (ARM)/.30
  • (BGS)/.21
  • (BYND)/-.67
  • (CAKE)/.63
  • (DUOL)/.27
  • (CART)/-.02
  • (JXN)/3.75
  • (NWSA)/.11
  • (HOOD)/.06
  • (RGLD)/.92
  • (STE)/2.35
  • (TTD)/.22
  • (VZIO)/.00
  • (ELAN)/.26
  • (LPX)/1.12
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +2.3% gain in Feb.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,430,000 barrels versus a +7,265,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -732,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,180,000 barrels versus a +344,000 barrel gain the prior week.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, 10Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for May, (SPG) annual meeting, (CSX) annual meeting, (AMD) annual meeting, (FSLR) annual meeting, (GILD) annual meeting, (PM) annual meeting, (BRO) annual meeting, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting and the American Society of Gene/Cell Therapy Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -1.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 +.9
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 66.6% of Issues Advancing, 31.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.93 +70.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$94.1M
  • 181 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
  • 60.9% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 -3.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 242.26 -.59%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,222.0 -.14%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (Fear) -1
  • 1-Day Vix 8.5 -7.3%
  • Vix 13.4 -.8%
  • Total Put/Call .99 -24.4%