Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.13%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.3 -.02%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 +.05%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Growth Prospects, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -1.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .43 +41.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.5 +.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.3 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.92 +.44%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.5 -2.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +4.0
  • Total Put/Call .93 -6.1%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -42.5%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$183.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 +.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 257.4 +1.6%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279 +6
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.48 -.18%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 182.5 -.21%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.7 +1.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.5 +.72%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 123.3 -5.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points +.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 758.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.4 +.1
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -1.9 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(439 of 500 reporting) +5.4% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 254.93 +.11:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.49 +.01: Growth Rate +35.5% unch., P/E 31.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -35.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% +90.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.0% -.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 68.6%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 48.9%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +223 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +154 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my financial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail -1.9% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.6% 3) Video Gaming -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • YOU, PEN, SONY, MTCH, AMRK, AVDX, UPST, KVYO, RWAY, CRSR, AVDL, RRR, QTRX, UBER, TWLO, MAX, CPNG, CDRE, AFRM, BHF, MASI, QLYS, EYE, ODP, CYRX, ATEC, FLYW, GO, SHOP, YMAB, RPD, ZI, TRIP, INSP and DV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RUM 2) TRIP 3) UAA 4) MP 5) ZI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TRIP 2) SHOP 3) AFRM 4) SATS 5) ZI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XRT 3) CIBR 4) XLK 5) ARKK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Shipping +2.0% 2) Telecom +1.3% 3) Networking +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KD, ELAN, GMED, AMRC, PWSC, LPX, IRBT, ASC, ODD, TEVA, RNG, MYGN, TOST, PCRX, BRP, WWW, BROS, VST, CRUS, DNLI, IEP, CFLT, POWI, OFIX, INSW, ARIS, DO, GFF, INTA, HEAR, ALCC, ANET, AZPN, LYFT, RDDT, CRNX, CHTR, NYT, OSCR, TNP, PRKS, DDOG, EMR, SEMR, TRMD, MWA, LITE, RCM, RYAAY and LAUR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TRIP 2) LAZR 3) BMBL 4) XLP 5) NXE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GMED 2) PWSC 3) PAYO 4) TOST 5) RNG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) ITB 4) IDU 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CAMT)/.57
  • (CSIQ)/-.01
  • (CARS)/.49
  • (CEG)/1.30
  • (HBI)/-.06
  • (H)/.77
  • (DNUT)/.06 
  • (PZZA)/.57
  • (PLNT)/.50
  • (RBLX)/-.53
  • (SBH)/.40
  • (TPR)/.68
  • (WRBY)/.07
  • (YETI)/.24
After the Close: 
  • (AKAM)/1.61
  • (DBX)/.50
  • (GH)/-.87
  • (HRB)/4.62
  • (SYNA)/.49
  • (TREX)/.72
  • (YELP)/.06
  • (DDS)/9.69
  • (PLUG)/-.33
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 212K versus 208K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1782K versus 1774K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for May is estimated to fall to 76.2 versus 77.2 in April.
  • Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for May is estimated at +3.2% versus +3.2% expected in April.

2:00 pm EST

  • The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated at $250.0B versus $176.2B in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Daly speaking, 30Y Bond auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for May, (ANDE) annual meeting, (KEY) annual meeting, (F) annual meeting, (NSC) annual meeting, (TSCO) annual meeting, (STLD) annual meeting, (CME) annual meeting, (DUK) annual meeting, (LVS) annual meeting, (UNP) annual meeting, (URI) annual meeting, (SYK) annual meeting, (VZ) annual meeting, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting and the American Society of Gene/Cell Therapy Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -1.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -1.2
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 40.6% of Issues Advancing, 57.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .97 -33.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$171.4M
  • 106 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 59.7% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.7 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.8 -.19%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,157.0 -.20%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (Fear) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 9.1 +8.6%
  • Vix 13.3 +.5%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -4.0%