Friday Watch

X:

• @libsoftiktok
  

• Drone footage captured at Emory College shows students being trained and practicing for violent protests with the police. Biden’s top donors including Soros are the ones behind this protest movement on college campuses. This is well organized and funded. (video)
• This is absolutely heartbreaking. Watch this mom’s testimony on how a school groomed her child into becoming trans. Her daughter attended Coeur D’alene Public Schools after being in private school. That’s when all the problems started. (video)

• @realLizUSA

• “Does the investigation confirm that there are missing ballot images?” “Yes.” Case closed. No cover up operation can conceal the fact that Fulton County did not have the votes it claimed it had. The recount could not replicate the original results. Oh, and it’s “news” to Fulton County that they are missing over 300,000 ballot images from Election Day. (video)

• @Breaking911

• WATCH: Chris Cuomo admits he was spreading false information about Ivermectin during the pandemic. Now, he says he's a user. “We were given bad information!” (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Bill Gates―who believes the world is vastly overpopulated―funds the world's largest mosquito factory, which breeds 30 million bacteria-infused mosquitos per week, then unleashes them on the unsuspecting public, "to save and improve millions of lives". Why would a man who believes the world is overpopulated―a belief he has stated publicly on numerous occasions―wish to "save millions of lives"? (video)

• @JunkScience

• Smart meters are how the government plans to ration electricity in our homes and businesses. The government aims to control when and how much we use our air conditioners, furnaces, water heaters, washing machines, dryers, EV chargers and more. If you don't have one, don't get one. If you have one, don't upgrade it.

• @amuse

• ELECTION FRAUD: South Carolina Medicaid office spokesman says the department is mandated to provide voter registration to illegals under Biden’s new guidance for the federal Voter Registration Act.

• @MarioNawful

• This is China's Humanoid Factory... Welcome to the future. (video)
• Biden Administration's Harassment of Elon Continues. Elon is facing unprecedented government investigations, raising the question, "Is the Biden Administration targeting him?"

• @WallStreetApes 

• London Residents No Longer Believe In The System & Not Showing Up To Vote. Residents “No longer want to give validity to the democratic process of voting because they cannot stand a single politician”. “People are no longer giving consent to be governed. And what comes next may not be pretty”. (video)
• Congress Attempts Oversight Over US Office of Management and Budget For Joe Biden’s Executive Order # 14019 ‘Promoting Access to Voting’. Watch as the Management at Office of Management and Budget REFUSES to Answer how this EO won’t be used to help illegal migrants vote.
• Retired United States Marines Are PISSED. This is Mike Humphries, Retired Marine. He Served For 18.5 Years & Then Worked For The Federal Government For 5 Years. Here’s what he thinks of what’s happening in US Government: (video)
  

• @RWMaloneMD
  

• 1,425 people have been arrested on Jan. 6 charges in 2024, which is almost double the rate from 2023 and 2022 - a U.S. DoJ report shows. The DoJ has been weaponized by the Biden admin to conduct a witch hunt. It needs to stop.

• @StephenM
  

• ALERT: House Dems just voted UNANIMOUSLY to give illegals representation in Congress AND the Electoral College. House Seats and Electoral College votes WILL BE added to areas with the most illegals (including all Biden illegals) unless Senate passes the bill. Invasion by design.

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Arizona: Only 1 official ballot paper type was approved by Maricopa County for all 2020 counted ballots, yet 10 types were discovered by voter-volunteers amounting to over 200,000 ‘non-conforming’ (counterfeit) ballots that were counted in a race Joe Biden ‘won’ by far far less.

• @JackStr42679640

• SWITZERLAND IS THE FIRST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD TO BAN MAMMOGRAPHY. Screening services are also suspended in parts of Canada, Italy, Scotland, and Australia.

• @PeterSweden7

• What is Bill Gates up to? Donated $1.2 BILLION to fund the UN Agenda 2030 global goals. Is behind 88% of philantrophic donations to the WHO. Backs a project that's spraying salt particles into the air to BLOCK the sun. Backs a project where scientists INFECT millions of mosquitos with bacteria and release them into the wild, claiming it will reduce serious diseases. Supports a company developing cow feed additives to make them fart less. Gave hundreds of millions of dollars towards GLOBAL DIGITAL ID. Did you vote for any of this?

• @MdBreathe
  

• Pfizer planning on selling Paxlovid online via a telehealth doctor. 44 severe drug interactions, toxic to the liver and kidneys, contains an HIV drug with a black box warning, poorly tolerated due to metallic taste, 20% incidence of rebound infection, $1400.
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• BREAKING: The Government Is Now Admitting That The Increase In Heart Disease And Excess Deaths Are Due To COVID Vaccines. Doctor Thomas Levy: "Vaccines are causing heart injury in at least 2.8% of people who received the Covid injections" "7 MILLION Americans now have hearts damaged by COVID vaccines". (video)

• @thestustustudio

• BREAKING: The George Washington University Encampment projects flames onto the American flag with text that reads... "Gaza lights the spark that will set the empire ablaze". (pic)

• @unusual_whales

• 63% of new audits as of Summer 2023 targeted taxpayers with income of less than $200,000, per WSJ.

•  @liz_churchill10

• Bill Gates truly believes that our Food Supply is destroying our Planet. Only an utter Mad Man would say something so sinister. For the Love of God…send this Satanist to Prison for Crimes Against Humanity. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.75 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.25 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.64 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.7 +2.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.20%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .78 +79.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.1 +1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.9 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.97 +.58%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.7 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 151.0 +12.0
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -11.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 +26.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$70.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.4 +.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 260.79 +1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 280 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.5 +.12%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 179.9 -1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.2 +.46%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.89 -.24%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 129.3 +4.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.64 +.16%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.25 basis points +.25 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 753.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.5 -4.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.0 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.4 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) +5.5% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.13 +.20:  Growth Rate +14.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.91% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.75 +.26: Growth Rate +35.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -36.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.5% -.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 65.1%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 48.8%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +361 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/biotech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -3.1% 2) Semis -.5% 3) Disk Drives -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PWSC, RCM, TARS, AZTA, HOOD, DOX, ABR, PAR, PZZA, MSGE, WMG, ABNB, ALGM, ACAD, EXAS, HMN, UTI, PYCR, METC, DUOL, RBLX, FWRD and EPAM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BMBL 2) PTEN 3) DBX 4) RBLX 5) ZI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EPAM 2) BYND 3) FWRD 4) GDRX 5) ABNB
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLK 3) XLP 4) IBB 5) KRE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Telecom +3.3% 2) Gold & Silver +2.7% 3) Shipping +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CCSI, SITM, EMBC, AGS, BLBD, ZLAB, PGY, VITL, ARHS, TDS, WRBY, USM, APP, SBGI, UPST, YETI, SPB, ESTA, KVYO, BMBL, EQIX, EYPT, ZIMV, CELH, ATEC, ALCC, FVRR, PLNT, ZIM, PAAS, INOD, CARS, HPK, MRC, CDNA, PETQ, STE, NOMD, CAKE, HIMS, HG, PRMW, SN, MCS, SIX, PRIM, IMXI, HASI, MNRO, NTR, BLDR, YOU, FOUR and RXST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CI 2) SYF 3) CDLX 4) PLNT 5) RBLX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BLBD 2) VITL 3) APP 4) YETI 5) EQIX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLF 3) SMH 4) PPH 5) PAVE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CLMT)/-.82
• (ENB)/.60
• (NVAX)/-1.06
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for May is estimated to fall to 76.2 versus 77.2 in April.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for May is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +3.2% gain in April.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated at $250B versus $176.2B in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, WASDE report, American Society of Gene/Cell Therapy Meeting, (MAR) annual meeting, (ALV) annual meeting, (AXON) annual meeting, (VMC) annual meeting, (CL) annual meeting, (PGR) annual meeting, (AA) annual meeting, (AKAM) annual meeting and the (ZBH) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 +1.3
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 66.3% of Issues Advancing, 31.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 +42.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$86.4M
  
• 145 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 59.7% (+2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.2 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.33 -.37%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,067.6 -.42%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (Fear) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.2 -7.5%
  
• Vix 13.1 +1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -13.5%