Monday, May 13, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

X:
  • @elonmusk 
  • @newstart_2024
  • @wideawake_media
  • @EndWokeness
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @profstonge
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @WarClandestine
  • @amuse
  • @WallStreetSilv
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.2 +4.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.18%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Meme Stock Frenzy, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.6 +8.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .62 -15.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.9 -1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.9 +.48%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.98 +1.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.4 +.12% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 152.0 +7.0
  • Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%
  • NYSE Arms .74 -40.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$20.1M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.64 +.08%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 258.72 +.18%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 290 +10
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.69 +.13%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 177.15 -1.05%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 -.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.5 -.61%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 129.8 -.03%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.67 +.28%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points -.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 -8.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.9 -6.4
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.8 -5.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -1.7 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +5.5% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.41 +.28:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.42 +.67: Growth Rate +35.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.2 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.4% +.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 76.4%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.6%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.1% 2) Construction -.7% 3) Restaurants -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • INTA, BUR, DUOL, VRNA, PRAX, MKSI, BANC and FTRE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SLG 2) VFC 3) GME 4) KMX 5) XLE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FTRE 2) SRG 3) BNTC 4) ASTS 5) EVLV
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLI 3) SMH 4) HACK 5) XLY

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.0% 2) Video Gaming +2.8% 3) Alt Energy +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GME, NVAX, OKLO, IRBT, BYON, TRUP, BILI, GRPN, LMND, SQSP, AMCX, RIVN, WGS, HE, TME, FVRR, INCY, KSS, VSTS, WRBY, ZIM, GH, WBA, BABA, UPST, WIX, SEDG, MEOH, STVN, MITK, DOCN, HOOD, TASK, ABR, EPAM, ASC and HROW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TUP 2) CRTO 3) SPWR 4) CWH 5) EU
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AMC 2) GME 3) NVAX 4) KOSS 5) ARM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XLC 4) XLU 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BABA)/10.27
  • (HD)/3.60
  • (IGT)/.31
  • (JACK)/1.42
  • (ONON)/.14
  • (SE)/.22
After the Close: 
  • (BOOT)/.89
  • (LGF/A)/.11
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to fall to 88.2 versus 88.5 in March.
8:30 am EST
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in March.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, (MMM) annual meeting, (MTZ)  annual meeting, (IGT) annual meeting, (H) annual meeting, (PRU) annual meeting, (ALL) annual meeting, (W) annual meeting, (COP) annual meeting, (HON) annual meeting, (KNX) annual meeting, (CMI) annual meeting, (WERN) annual meeting, BofA Healthcare Conference, BofA Transport/Airlines/Industrials Conference, Needham Tech/Media/Consumer Conference, BofA Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum, RBC Healthcare Conference, JPMorgan Homebuilding/Building Products Conference and the (BMO) Farm to Market Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +21.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.2 -1.1
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 60.6% of Issues Advancing, 37.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .81 -35.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$114.0M
  • 134 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
  • 62.8% (+3.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.3 +.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,979.5 -.28%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 50.0 (Neutral) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.7 +5.3%
  • Vix 13.4 +6.5%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +4.4%