Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Hmm. (video)

• @Kylenabecker

• JUST IN: MSNBC just so happens to have footage of Donald Trump's off-the-record golf outing where the second Trump assassinat*on attempt took place. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• FBI AGENT IN CHARGE OF INVESTIGATING TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMP WAS ASKED TO DELETE HIS ANTI TRUMP SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS BY CHRIS WRAY BEFORE HE WAS PROMOTED TO HIS POSITION AS LEAD AGENT IN THE FBI MIAMI @FBIMiamiFL OFFICE.
• Just a reminder that @JoeBiden’s State Department @StateDept under Antony Blinken @SecBlinken signed off on the Ukrainian Nazi Azov Brigade to receive US weapons in June of 2024 with US Taxpayer money… Ryan Routh was a recruiter for Azov and appeared in their promotion videos as an American mercenary in Ukraine. Today, he tried to assassinate President Trump. 
• Don’t forget what I was first to expose when Donald Trump was almost assassinated in Butler, Pennsylvania. Shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks was tied to BlackRock and appeared in a @BlackRock ad in 2022. Now we see Ryan Routh, who tried to assassinate President Trump today at his West Palm Beach, FL golf club, was profiled by the New York Times @nytimes in 2023 and worked with the US foreign Legion in Ukraine, which has ties to the CIA.

• @robbystarbuck
  

• Wow. Josh Hawley’s whistleblower report is out and it’s incredibly damning. There needs to be mass resignations over this. They knew Crooks was suspicious an hour before he shot Trump but left the roof unattended due to heat outside. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• NEW: President Trump’s golf outing was a “LAST MINUTE decision,” sources tell CNN. This round was NOT on the public schedule, and the public was not informed he’d be there. So how the HELL did this Ryan Routh clown know where Trump would be and at what time? This smells REALLY bad, guys.
• NEW: Martin County, FL Sheriff Will Snyder just suggested the possibility that Ryan Routh may be part of a greater conspiracy to K*LL President Trump. WOW.
  

• @MJTruthUltra
  

• Strange things are happening… This person, Edward Heckman, wrote an article dated August 30, 2024. He wrote that bank records revealed Thomas Crooks from the 1st assassination attempt, made unusual payments to two individuals… Including Ryan Routh, from the Second Assassination Attempt —— he even connected Maxwell Yearick as a CIA Operative who trained Ryan Routh… But here’s the weird part… I used the way back machine and found the that this information WAS NOT part of the original article; meaning, this information was added recently. Stinks of three letter agency involvement…

• @FLVoiceNews

• BREAKING: DeSantis says that the same agencies prosecuting Trump investigating the assassination attempt "may not be the best thing," vows a "credible" truth after state-run investigation. (video)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: A federal judge has ordered the founder of Dominion, the voting machine company, to give deposition evidence under oath to election integrity activists. For once, we'll learn the truth about why Dominion LIED about the countless vulnerabilities on their machines. (video)

• @charliekirk11

• See how this works everyone? Trump almost gets shot AGAIN and the press connects it to the fact Haitians are eating people's pets, and Trump bothered to notice. Lester Holt is saying Trump deserved to die. That's what this is. (video)
  

• @bennyjohnson
  

• President Trump just dropped the RECEIPTS on every single Democrat who has contributed to the hateful rhetoric against him which led to two assassination attempts.

• @DC_Draino

• Well, well, well. Turns out those bomb threats in Springfield, OH were originating overseas. When will media start apologizing for blaming MAGA? (video)

• @SaraCarterDC

• What are the odds that the two shooters who have attempted to assassinate President Trump are in two very distinct and different commercials? One supporting Ukraine and the other a BlackRock ad. BIZARRE ? OR IF YOU WERE A BETTING MAN, YOU’D say ( fill in the blank) (video)

• @amuse
  

• COINCIDENCE? AG Merrick Garland assigned Markenzy Lapointe a Haitian Immigrant to prosecute the would-be Trump ass@ssin. I don't know about you but I don't think there are coincidences when it comes to @realDonaldTrump. Lapointe just happens to ALSO be one of the prosecutors who has been going after Trump for Jack Smith's Mar-a-Lago documents case. (pic)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,014,172 Reports(+797 from prior report) Through September 6, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 58.5 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.2 -.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .99 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.5 -2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.8 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.61 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.5 +4.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 -13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -8.7%

• NYSE Arms .87 -3.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$244.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.3 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 336.3 +.43%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 276 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.1 -.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.0 -.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.7 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.1 -1.3%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 133.6 +2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.76 +.03%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points unch.
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -45.5 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 122.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 707.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 65.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.87% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.1 +4.7 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.1 +6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.3 -1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +15.7% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.91 +.27:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 349.75 +.62: Growth Rate +22.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .57 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .79 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 5.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.47% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 70.9% -1.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.29% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 50.7%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 44.2%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +14 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.5% 2) Gold & Silver -.4% 3) Alt Energy -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• QXO, SIRI, GCT, UPST, CRUS, NNE, QRVO, BCYC, SMMT, AVAV, GH, CATX, BMRN and ITOS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SWKS 2) CARR 3) BBWI 4) XLI 5) CNM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NNE 2) MGNX 3) MU 4) CXM 5) XPEL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) VDE 3) XBI 4) XLF 5) KBWB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +1.8% 2) Regional Banks +1.5% 3) I-Banks +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NUVL, ASND, BLCO, LSCC, IEP, IGMS, SATS, CGON, NYCB, CVNA, TGTX, INTA, TVTX, AA, BBWI, VSAT, PGHL, ZG, Z, ORCL, EXAS, BIRK, OSPN, INTC, RH, U, YPF, PLTR, CLMT, APP, LGIH, MMSI, NE, HMY and FRO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLI 2) BHC 3) GEVO 4) DLR 5) ORCL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NUVL 2) ASND 3) EXAS 4) ZG 5) AA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SOXX 3) XRT 4) GDX 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FERG)/2.85
  

After the Close: 

• (SPOG)/123
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +1.0% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Sept.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.6% decline in July.
• Capacity Utilization for Aug. is estimated to rise to 77.9% versus 77.8% in July.
• Manufacturing Production for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 41.0 versus 39.0 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• (DECK) 6-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, 20Y Bond auction, API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Healthcare Conference, JPMorgan US All Stars Conference, Citi Growth Conference, (CAG) annual meeting, (DRI) annual meeting, (WDAY) analyst day and the TD Cowen Sip/Snack/Scrub Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 -.2
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 63.9% of Issues Advancing, 33.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .93 +3.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$225.5M
  
• 363 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 57.9% (unch.) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.5 -2.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 220.07 -.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,487.7 -1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (NEUTRAL) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.3 -12.3%
  
• Vix 17.2 +3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -8.7%