Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• wow. (graph)
• He wants to take away your right to free speech in America. (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• Democrats are resorting to highly unethical and unfair strategies to launch an attack on Bridger Aerospace, the company of Tim Sheehy, the Republican candidate for Senate in Montana. It makes sense that Democrats are resorting to sleazy tactics to destroy the American Dream of a great man, whose veteran-led company is devoting to saving lives by fighting wildfires. They want to destroy this man and the jobs he created for American veterans, simply because they hate his politics. This is disgusting and needs to be exposed. (video)

• @GrageDustin

• Now we have the Springfield City Manager acknowledging on video that they’ve heard of complaints of domestic animals being eaten back in March. We also have a call report showing this. Why would they lie about there not being complaints? Unbelievable. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• So the J6ers get charged with terrorism and the guy who wanted to Assassinate President Trump is only being charged with firearms offenses? Wow. Do we even have a country anymore?
• Florida Senator @marcorubio just told Fox News that “Iran is actively seeking the assassination of President Trump.” Just a reminder that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris have sent Iran over 16 BILLION DOLLARS.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “We know and we knew this was all Bullshit”. Holy Crap - Listen to Senator Malcolm Roberts unleash absolute hell over the Global Covid Scam. “People are waking - we are going to hound you down - the people that are guilty”. “It is clear people have been steamrolled, it’s also clear it’s been coordinated Globally”. “It has been planned over decades”. (video)

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: Bail has been DENIED for Sean “Diddy” Combs while he awaits trial on s*x traff*cking charges. He will supposedly be housed in NYC’s Metropolitan Correctional Center, which is the SAME JAIL Jeffrey Epstein “died” in. Will Diddy even make it to trial? (video)

• @libsoftiktok

• BREAKING: @OversightPR obtained this police report from Aug. 28 where a caller alleged that their cat was stolen and chopped up in Springfield, OH. (pic)
• Incredible footage revealing an operation in Charleroi, PA where Haitians are being bussed to and from food factories operated by Fourth Street Foods. It’s estimated that 90% of workers are now made up of Haitians. Kamala imported 2,000 Haitians into this town of 4,000 people and now they’re taking American jobs. (video)
• Received this from a follower. A classroom door in Boston teaching students to hate America. Homeschool your kids. (pic)

• @MJTruthUltra
  

• Another episode of the Twilight Zone just dropped. ABC’s Martha Raddatz says Trump was Wrongfully “Fact Checked” and Right about Abortion, and then Eviscerates Kamala Harris’ for Lying about the Military. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Chicago City Leaders Announce “We’re going to have a (migrant) shelter at this particular location”. The crowd erupts “YOU WORK FOR US, YOU WORK FOR US” (chanting repeatedly). City leaders sit there and smile and smirk at the crowd. It’s obvious, none of these people work for us. (video)

• @CuttureWar2020

• Ryan Routh spotted at a Kamal Harris Rally. (video)
  

• @charliekirk11

• A lot of attention has been paid to Springfield, Ohio and the 20,000 Haitians that have inundated that city, making it unrecognizable to people who grew up there. But it's not just Springfield. It's happening to small towns across the country...

• @bennyjohnson
  

• CBS IN NEVADA: “In every single restaurant, the people willing to talk to us, we could only find one Harris supporter in every restaurant and we left no stone unturned”. (video)

• @toddstarnes

• JUST IN: The feds dumped Haitian migrants in tiny Sylacauga, Alabama. Local leaders were not told in advance. This small Southern town does not have the resources to care for the migrants. Sylacauga is a deep red town in a deep red county. The Democrats are dumping illegals into small towns to cause chaos. They want to destabilize the nation.

• @ChuckCallesto

• BREAKING REPORT: Just last week over 53,000 people registered to vote WITHOUT ID in Pennsylvania. 2024 TOTALS are over 1.6 million.. READ THAT TWICE.. (graph)

• @amuse
  

• WATCHLIST: Why did the Biden-Harris regime put @TulsiGabbard on the TSA terror watch list and not Ryan Routh who was convicted of felony possession of a weapon of mass destruction? Routh has been on the FBI's radar since 2019.
• UKRAINE: Democrats blocked the appointment of an inspector general to ensure aid sent to Zelensky wasn't stolen, wasted, or lost. Zelensky now admits that as much as 70% of aid sent never makes it to the battlefield. The Ukrainian president explained to CNN that he expected the most recent aid package to outfit 14 new brigades but by the time it made it to the battlefield it could barely outfit four. The president needs help and for some reason Senate Democrats refuse to allow any sort of oversight - it is almost that they want billions to be 'lost' to criminals.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 58.5 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.2 +2.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.04%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher-Long Term Rates, Fed Rate-Cut Jitters, Technical Selling, Healthcare/REIT Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.85% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.54 euros/megawatt-hour +4.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.1 +3.0 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -33.6 -2.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.6 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +15.7% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.69 -.22:  Growth Rate +14.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 350.09 +.34: Growth Rate +23.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 4.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.99% +52.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 70.4% -.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 50.7%(unch.) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 42.2%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +270 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +55 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -1.3% 2) Pharma -1.3% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SIRI, MGNI, NUVL and SMMT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AHCO 2) LAZR 3) CRDO 4) GEV 5) SMAR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DAVA 2) NVTS 3) FNA 4) DXCM 5) NUE
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XRT 3) XLI 4) XLE 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.9% 2) Airlines +2.8% 3) Alt Energy +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CMP, IGMS, LI, RCKT, DCOM, EWTX, GDS, SNBR, SYM, RYTM, IEP, ANIP, HRI, BTSG, APP, PTLO, S, UPST, PRO, PLRX, CORT, FERG, SEMR, HPE, ROAD, NE, HPK, KRNT, RDFN, NYCB, ABNB, ALAB, MRNA, KGS, YOU, SSTK, GRPN, VTIL, HA, RYAAY, CNM, TROX, SDRL, CRSP, VBTX, AXGN, VNOM, ADMA, STLD, KVYO, ESRT and DUOL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BEKE 2) XP 3) OMEX 4) ZI 5) CAG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BFI 2) TALK 3) TDOC 4) UPST 5) DCOM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) AMLP 3) XBI 4) KRE 5) SMH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GIS)/1.06
  

After the Close: 

• (SCS)/.37
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Aug. is estimated to rise to 1318K versus 1238K in July.
• Building Permits for Aug. is estimated to rise to 1412K versus 1406K in July.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -213,570 barrels versus an +833,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,1140,430 barrels versus a +2,310,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +994,140 Barrels versus a +2,308,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -1.26% versus a -.5% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to cut the benchmark Fed Funds rate -25.0 basis points to 5.0-5.25%.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference, BofA Healthcare Conference, (TTWO) annual meeting, (AVY) investor day, (HUBS) analyst day, (TRUP) investor day and the KeyBanc Energy Transition Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 +.9
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 68.8% of Issues Advancing, 29.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.35 +40.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$106.5M
  
• 368 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 60.5% (+3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.0 +2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 223.1 +1.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,470.7 unch.
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (GREED) +7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 17.0 +40.3%
  
• Vix 17.5 +1.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -1.2%