Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.0 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.8 +3.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.52%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Diminished China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Selling, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.3 euros/megawatt-hour +5.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.7 +1.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.0 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.7 +1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +5.4% +.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.62 +.03:  Growth Rate +14.1% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.73 +.16: Growth Rate +27.7% unch., P/E 31.5 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 22.5 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 63.4 +.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 49.2%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 39.9%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +260 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +85 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +2.8% 2) Education +2.0% 3) AI/Robotics +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CAPR, PRGS, LSPD, HG, UCTT, DJT, BHVN, VST, DKNG, DUOL, LEU, MASI, MNSO, FLUT, TRML, HPE, ODD, CEG, UPST, AI, RNA, GCT, INTC and RXO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AUR 2) CAPR 3) FITB 4) ASHR 5) DNN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRGS 2) RKLB 3) WVE 4) VST 5) DUOL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XME 3) XLV 4) XLK 5) IBB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/2.78
• (KMX)/.85
• (JBL)/2.22
• (SNX)/2.80
  

After the Close: 

• (BB)/-.03
• (COST)/5.08
• (MTN)/-4.23
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• BEA annual revisions to GDP/National Economic Accounts.
• 2Q GDP revisions. 
• Durable Goods Orders for Aug. is estimated to fall -2.7% versus a +9.8% gain in July.
• Durables Ex Transports for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in July.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in July.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 223K versus 219K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1828K versus 1829K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -5.5% decline in July.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to -5 versus -3 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Treasury's Yellen speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Goldman Sachs Sustainability Forum, (LUV) investor day and the (INTU) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.0 -.4
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 70.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.15 -7.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$5.9M
  
• 183 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 58.5% (-2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.5 +2.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.4 -.65%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,012.3 +1.21%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.0 +4.7%
  
• Vix 18.2 +.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .70 -21.4%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 60.75 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne +3.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.9 +3.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.