Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 +.1
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 41.3% of Issues Advancing, 56.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .80 -44.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$93.0M
  
• 101 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 63.5% (-.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.8 +2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.1 -.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,365.6 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) -6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.0 -4.4%
  
• Vix 13.3 -.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -7.1%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Yuan Falls to One-Year Low on Weak Growth, Tariff Risk.
• Trump Will Visit Paris to Celebrate Reopening of Notre Dame.
• Who’s Fighting and Why in the Revived Syrian War. 
• Korea Inflation Picks Up Less Than Expected in Sign of Stability.
• France Faces ‘Moment of Truth’ With Government on Brink of Collapse.
• BOJ Weighs Case for First Triple Hike Since Japan’s Bubble Burst. 
• Asian Stocks Rise With US Curbs on China in Focus.
• Oil Stabilizes Ahead of OPEC+ Supply Meeting as Volatility Drops.
• Cyber Monday $13.5 Billion Splurge Seen Beating Initial Forecast.
• Fed Officials Keep Options Open for December Rate Decision.
  

Zerohedge: 

• Biden-Linked Delaware Judge Rejects (Again) Musk's '70%-Shareholder-Approved' $56 Billion Pay-Package.
• Special Counsel Rejects Hunter Biden's Pardon, Files Scathing Rebuke In Court Case.
• NATO Chief Warned Trump 'Bad' Ukraine Peace Deal Is A 'Dire Threat' To US, Europe.
• Huge Hedge Fund "All-Or-Nothing" Trades Gain Traction.
• De Beers Pulls "Last Resort" Price Cut As Diamond Price-Floor Crumbles.
• The Failure Of COP29: Does The "Green Agenda" Have A Future?
• Nearly One In Five US Teens Experienced Depression Last Year.
• What Is The Administrative State?
• Yes, Mexico Knows Exactly What It Is Doing.
• Debanked: The Financial Suppression Of Bitcoin Businesses Must End.
• US stocks finished mixed and the dollar strengthened following Trump's tariff threat and a Goldilocks ISM Manufacturing report - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Pour Across Border Into Syria To Bolster Assad.
• Cartels Demand Higher Border Crossing Fees After Trump Victory.
• "They Must Be Eating Xanax Like Tic-Tacs..." - The Blob Has A Migraine.
• Stocks and Dollar catch bid after more Trump Tariff threats - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Paris, PMIs, & Puking Crypto: 'Good' News Sparks Re-Inversion Of Yield Curve.

The Wall Stree Journal:

• One Last Bundle of Falsehoods about Biden Family Business.
• Climate-Change Colonialism Keeps Poor Countries Impoverished.
• Pardon Me, Dad: The Hunter Biden Story.
• What to Know About the Unusual Pardon.
• China Tensions Prompt U.S. Navy Race to Reload Missiles at Sea.
• America’s Biggest Apartment Owner Takes a Leap Into Modular Homes.
• The Railroad on the Wrong Side of Trump’s Tariffs.
• GM to Exit Michigan EV Battery Plant.
• Hedge Fund Paloma Partners Offers IOUs to Fleeing Investors.
• Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s Obesity Moat Just Got Stronger.

MarketWatch.com:

• 10 of Wall Street’s favorite dividend stocks for 2025 with yields of at least 4%.
• Why Nvidia and other chip stocks are mostly shrugging off latest China rules.
• Zscaler’s post-earnings stock drop further bucks 2024’s rally by software sector.
• Fed’s Waller says he supports interest-rate cut at next meeting — for now.
• Tesla’s stock surges after self-driving software update, new Street-high target.

Fox News:

• First lady addresses President Biden's decision to pardon son Hunter from criminal charges.
• Single congressional race stands between Republicans and 1-seat majority.
• What Trump told Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago that triggered nervous laughter.
• Biden bans new mining in key region that produces nearly half of US coal: 'It's a disaster'.
• What Americans are saying after President Biden's broad pardon of son Hunter.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• ‘The View’s Whoopi Goldberg Goes Crazy Defending Hunter’s Pardon, Demands Co-Host Stop Calling Biden a Liar (VIDEO).
• Scott Jennings Torches CNN Panel on Joe Biden Pardoning Hunter: “He’s Leaving Office in Complete and Total Disgrace. He is a Liar and There is No Other Way to Spin This” (Video).
• Prosecutors in Special Counsel Dave Weiss’s Office Object to Hunter Pardon, Blast Joe Biden.
• IMMIGRATION U-TURN: Canada No Longer Welcomes Mass Migration, Launches Global Online Ad Campaign Cautioning Asylum-Seekers That ‘Making a Claim Is Hard’.
• Please Enjoy Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman Getting Absolutely Humiliated on CNN When He is Forced to Watch His Previous Comments on Joe Biden Pardoning Hunter (VIDEO).
• Karine Jean-Pierre GASLIGHTS the Public After Reporter Points Out Joe Biden Lied About a Hunter Pardon (AUDIO).
• Mike Davis Fires Warning Shot at Senate RINOs: Confirm Kash Patel or “Face The Political Wrath of The Article III Project” – Tell Your U.S. Senators to Confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director HERE (VIDEO).
• Biden Discussed Pardoning Hunter In June, Told Aides He Would Lie to the Public About Pardon Plans.
• Former CNN Lefty Crank John Harwood Gets Embarrassing Community Note on X.
• Colorado Officials Persecuting Tina Peters Worked for Dominion.
• Woke Jaguar’s Concept Cars Have Leaked Ahead of Official Reveal and They Are Absolutely Hideous. 
• ‘Should Be Disqualified!’ — Conservatives Slam Trump’s DEA Pick Chad Chronister for Being a Woke, Democrat Donor, Pro-Vaccine ‘Tyrant’ Who Arrested a Pastor During COVID.

The Epoch Times:

• Malaysia Warns China Against Using It to Avoid US Tariffs.
• How Does Alex Wong, Trump’s Incoming National Security Deputy, View China?
• China’s Rapid Space Militarization Raises Concerns.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Cancel culture has been canceled.
  

• @C_3C_3

• Wrap your head around this. President Trump was impeached over wanting to look into the crimes Joe Biden just pardoned Hunter for.

• @Wendyp4545

• BREAKING: U.S. to announce another $725 million in military aid for Ukraine. Western North Carolina $0 Ukraine $215 Billion.

• @bennyjohnson

• BREAKING: Special Counsel David Weiss rejects Hunter Biden’s bid to dismiss his indictment, saying a pardon doesn’t erase the charges.

• @WallStreetApes

• Entire towns in Mexico are turned into ghost towns due to the threat of the cartels. “They fear we could be kidnapped”. The child trafficking business is now so huge with cartels stealing kids and taking them into America, entire towns have left. This is insane. (video)
• New digital pricing has come to American grocery stores. He says that he’s seen the pricing change based on time of day and how many items are left, “They'll fluctuate based off of demand”. - If it’s 6pm, the price goes up. - Once the inventory on these items become low, the prices will start to shoot up to $1.20. “They're gonna start incorporating all these all over. Yeah, so it's pretty crazy. I'll come back later on in the day and you'll see this go up and down in price. You'll see it go as low as like 89 cents, which is pretty crazy”. Welcome to dystopia. (video)
• This is so insane. “US government has been hiring an average of 50,000 workers per month for the past 2 years. 50,000 workers per month for 2 years straight”. “Which is one of the highest rates in 30 years”.

• @BehizyTweets

• BREAKING: Wisconsin Judge Brad Schimel has approved a subpoena against ActBlue, saying, "Something is NOT right" after hearing evidence that ActBlue is using the names of unsuspecting people to launder dark money to Democrat campaigns. “There may be an element of fraud, or maybe it is innocent. Plaintiff has set forth enough in their complaint and in support of their subpoena to demonstrate that there may be something here.”

• @matt_vanswol

• FEMA seems to be very confused why the people of #WNC are choosing to NOT use the hotel vouchers they are handing out... Let me explain:
  

• @goddeketal

• I spent half my life pursuing a PhD in biotechnology. I dedicated myself to honest science—running experiments, being critical, and trying to disprove my own hypotheses. Eventually, I earned my degree. It was grueling but meaningful work. Then you see this. This woman just received a PhD from one of the so-called “elite” universities for a thesis claiming that describing smells is racist. Yes, you read that right. The core of her research? If you say someone stinks, people like them less—a concept any child learns from cartoons at age four. Her abstract is stuffed with pretentious language and inflated words, making a simple idea sound profound. But what’s worse is that this kind of “scholarship” is increasingly being legitimized.

• @amuse

• KASH PATEL: Did you know that Kash has more prosecutorial experience than 4 of the last 10 FBI Directors? He's got more defense experience than 8 of them. Ironically, Kash is one of the most qualified directors in the last last 30 years.

• @Liz_Wheeler

• Trump’s pick for DEA head Chad Chronister withheld taxpayer money from unvaccinated deputies if they got sick. He gave taxpayer money to vaxxed deputies. Despicable. Please, Pres. Trump, withdraw this nomination. The last thing we need in federal law enforcement is more tyranny.

• @NickAdamsinUSA
  

• Azeez Al-Shaair wears pro-terrorism messages on his cleats and faces no consequences. Nick Bosa wears a MAGA hat in a postgame interview and he gets fined the maximum amount by the NF. Boycott the NFL.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Elon Musk confirms that Kash Patel is MAGA's "line in the sand" and that GOP senators will face political challenges if they do not vote to confirm him for FBI director.

• @TheBuckYouWill

• WE ARE BEING POISONED. The Trudeau government is poisoning you. Bovaer is a feed additive given to cows to stop farts and it's been in our food supply for a year! I'M SERIOUS. The gov't has NO LONG TERM studies to see how it impacts humans. THIS IS SCARY SHIT.

• @DerrickEvans4WV
  

• PEOPLE NEED TO WAKE UP... Your 7-year-old wakes up exhausted. Not because he's sick. Because it's 6AM. You pour him cereal. Not because it's healthy. Because it's quick. He stares at an iPad. Not because it's good for him. Because you need to get ready. The school calls later: "He can't focus" "He can't sit still" "He needs testing" The doctor writes a prescription. Not because your boy is broken. Because the system is. The truth? His brain is FIGHTING:

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,016,047 Reports(+2,606 from prior report) Through October 25, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.3 +1.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 +.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .70 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.5 +3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.5 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +2.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.3 +1.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 195.0 +22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -8.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 -18.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$110.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.5 -.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 288.7 -.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 175 -13
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.5 +1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 161.7 +.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 123.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.8 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.3 -.14%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 108.7 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.05%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.5 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -9.0 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 45.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.49% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.3 +4.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.3 -2.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .3 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.22 +.26:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.37 +1.36: Growth Rate +22.4% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +.1 point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.04 -24.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -.5 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% +58.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.7% -.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% +18.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 57.7%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 42.9%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +177 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.8% 2) Utilities -1.6% 3) REITs -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RDW, TCMD, ZIM, PCG, DAVE, BGNE, LC, ANAB, NU, TREE, LB, STLA, LSPD, NPWR, ACMR, RVMD, ETON, BKKT, RCAT, JANX, RKLB, CORZ, MARA, IONQ and UPST
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) VRSN 3) ZS 4) PCG 5) OKTA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UPST 2) TOST 3) LC 4) ACHR 5) APLT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) FDN 3) XLV 4) IBB 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +5.0% 2) Semis +2.6% 3) Gambling +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NVCR, SMCI, ARQQ, PTCT, NBIS, DAN, ZETA, WOLF, NEP, JKS, MNSO, PLRX, VSCO, DOYU, MRUS, ENVX, GRAL, ROKU, YY, CRSP, GPRK, GAP, NET, BBAR, LOMA, ANF, LIF, AEO, SMLR, FIVE, SQ, TSM, IGT, NCLH, OSCR, PYCR, DKS, LULU, PYCR, BAP, LIND, URBN, OKTRA, AKAM, CNK, AMPL, PRMB, MRVL, BAP, BURL, FSLR, FMS, TTD, RRR, PUBM, ASML, PVH, TPR, BLBD, PUBM and PCT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CHAU 2) PL 3) OPTT 4) WIX 5) KULR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVCR 2) MNSO 3) ROKU 4) NET 5) NCLH
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) PKB 4) PSI 5) XLU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CNM)/.65
• (DCI)/.82
  

After the Close: 

• (BOX)/.42
• (MRVL)/.41
• (OKTA)/.58
• (CRM)/2.44
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The JOLTS Job Openings for Oct. is estimated to rise to 7519K versus 7443K in Sept.
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 16.1M versus 16.04M in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (ANET) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kuglar speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, (HOOD) investor day, (T) investor day, UBS TMT Conference, UBS Tech/AI Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, Citi Healthcare Conference, UBS Industrials/Transports Conference, Barclays Eat/Sleep/Play/Shop Conference, Citi Basic Materials Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference Fireside Chat and the Wells Fargo TMT Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST