Tuesday, December 03, 2024

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

Zerohedge: 

The Wall Stree Journal:
Fox News:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • In 2023 alone, illegal immigration cost taxpayers $150.7 billion. To put this in context with other costs (adjusted for inflation): -World War I: $334 billion. -Apollo Space Program: $257 billion . -Manhattan Project: $30 billion. -Panama Canal: $15.2 billion. -Hoover Dam: $1 billion. The scale of spending on illegal immigration boggles the mind!
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @MarioNawful
  • TUCKER FROM MOSCOW: "WE'RE IN A HOT WAR WITH RUSSIA AND NOBODY'S TALKING". Fresh from Moscow, Tucker Carlson drops a bombshell claim: The U.S. military recently killed Russian soldiers on Russian soil, yet most Americans don't know we're essentially at war. He says there's zero communication between Washington and Moscow—first time that's happened in decades. Claims the U.S. Embassy blocked his Zelensky interview attempts but just wrapped a chat with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov about whether Trump's return might end the conflict. Meanwhile, Tucker says we're closer to nuclear war than during the Cuban Missile Crisis. (video)
  • @BasedMikeLee
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @EndWokeness
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BarbaraOneillAU
  • @WallStreetSilv
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.5 -1.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.44% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.6 +2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.1 -.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 +.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.34 +.12:  Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.53 +.16: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 32.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +15.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 4.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.7% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 60.7%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 44.7%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.2% 2) Shipping +2.3% 3) Video Gaming +1.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • JANX, CRDO, ARQQ, PPTA, CNM, AOSL, MP, NBIS, ALAB, SHO, MNSO, UPST, FRO, APP, PTVE, JKS, PLTR, MXL, GPRK, PEB, FVRR, SNAP, TEVA, CENX, DAN, BTDR, CRESY, EDU, AXON, RLJ, VIST, SIMO, SKX, MSGE, TLK, OS, LOMA, TEN, FIVE, T, SMLR, MBLY, PK, INSW, DY, ATAT, MAG, DB and INSW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CHRS 2) CRDO 3) MP 4) NGD 5) PL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JANX 2) CRDO 3) CTRN 4) SHO 5) CNM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLC 3) VGT 4) XLP 5) IYC
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CPB)/.87
  • (CHWY)/.06
  • (DLTR)/1.07
  • (FL)/.40
  • (HRL)/.42
  • (THO)/.71
After the Close: 
  • (AVAV)/.76
  • (AEO)/.46
  • (FIVE)/.17
  • (CHPT)/-.17
  • (PVH)/2.59
  • (SNPS)/3.30
  • (VRNT)/.43
  • (GIII)/2.28
  • (RH)/2.66
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 150K versus 233K in Oct.

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Services Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 55.7 versus 56.0 in Oct.
  • The ISM Prices Paid Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus 58.1 in Oct.
  • Factory Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.5% decline in Sept.

2:00 pm EST

  • Fed's Beige Book report release.

Upcoming Splits

  • (ANET) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Musalem speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Barclays Eat/Sleep/Play Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, UBS Tech Conference and the UBS Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +9.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 +.1
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 41.3% of Issues Advancing, 56.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .80 -44.1%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$93.0M
  • 101 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
  • 63.5% (-.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.8 +2.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.1 -.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,365.6 +.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) -6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.0 -4.4%
  • Vix 13.3 -.5%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -7.1%

Monday, December 02, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge: 

The Wall Stree Journal:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @C_3C_3
  • @Wendyp4545
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @matt_vanswol
  • FEMA seems to be very confused why the people of #WNC are choosing to NOT use the hotel vouchers they are handing out... Let me explain:
  • @goddeketal
  • @amuse
  • @Liz_Wheeler
  • @NickAdamsinUSA
  • Azeez Al-Shaair wears pro-terrorism messages on his cleats and faces no consequences. Nick Bosa wears a MAGA hat in a postgame interview and he gets fined the maximum amount by the NF. Boycott the NFL.
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @TheBuckYouWill
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.3 +1.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +1.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%
  • S&P 500 futures +.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.