Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks -2.8% 2) I-Banks -2.6% 3) Alt Energy -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BXMT, MLTX, CB, BCS, FLO, AMD, SASR, COHR, JLL, IRON, ATOM, BN, MBLY, DEI, ACLX, BUD, BTU, CPRX, ALL, EIX, ON, ANGO, TMDX, NEOG, CELC, GLPG, CSTL, ZIM, QTWO, PCG, JANX, JEF, NTLA, CRNX, APGE, STZ, NEO, MCY and DYN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CHAU 2) IEF 3) PCG 4) MNST 5) YINN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IGMS 2) TLRY 3) MCY 4) STZ 5) PCG
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IBB 2) XLV 3) SMH 4) XLB 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +1.8% 2) Shipping +1.5% 3) Energy +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WBA, CEG, AXGN, ITCI, ARHS, RPRX, PCRX, HSAI, SVV, FRO, DAR, PONY, PENG, TNK, DAL, NBIS, SNX, ETON, PSIX, SNAP, BWLP, TEN, IONQ, SERV, ARIS, DHT, INSW, TRMD, INTA, GBX, FTAI, BLBD, TALO, VFC, MRUS, PRM, MEG, HELE, FLNG, STNG, CACI, BBAR, WHR, OS, X, LRN, UAL, TLN, BJ, UAL, AAL, SLAB, VST, SUPV, DKNG, GNK, DINO, TTECK, VTLE and APD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CHAU 2) IEF 3) PCG 4) MNST 5) YINN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WBA 2) AXGN 3) DTIL 4) MVST 5) ITCI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) VGT 3) XRT 4) XBI 5) KRE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (KBH)/2.44

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Deficit for Dec. is estimated at -$62.0B versus -$355.8B in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Conference Board Employment Trends Index, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations for Dec., Needham Growth Conference, TD Securities Mining Conference and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +38.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.8 -4.1
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 19.2% of Issues Advancing, 79.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .52 -57.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$392.4M
  
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 203 New Lows
• 45.3% (-10.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.7 -5.1
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.4 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.7 +.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,692.0 -.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 28.0 (FEAR) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.7 -21.4%
  
• Vix 19.2 +6.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -35.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 +2.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.92 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.5 +.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 +1.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.44%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Medical/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.86 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.56 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 +2.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.9 -15.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .5 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.94 +.14:  Growth Rate +14.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 394.45 +.18: Growth Rate +25.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 40.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.68% +23.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.2% -.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 60.9% (-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 49.7%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +40 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector long, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long