Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +51.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 -1.3
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 39.6% of Issues Advancing, 59.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .80 -62.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$219.1M
  
• 2 New 52-Week Highs, 738 New Lows
• 14.7% (-2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 20.1 -13.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 38.0 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.1 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,576.0 +1.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 5.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -3.0
• 1-Day Vix 61.5 -16.6%
  
• Vix 49.0 -6.3%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.13 -7.4%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• WHO’S PAYING TO BURN TESLAS? DOJ & CONGRESS PROBING THE MONEY TRAIL. The Molotov attacks on Tesla dealerships weren’t just mindless rage—they were coordinated, armed, and funded. Now, the Department of Justice is digging deeper. Investigators are pursuing not just the arsonists, but also the shadowy networks that may have financed the crimes. The House DOGE Subcommittee has formally called on the DOJ and FBI to expose any NGOs, activist fronts, or political donors fueling anti-Tesla violence. FAFO time.
• DOGE: Biden issued nearly 4M SSNs to non-citizens provided just five months after filing asylum claims in the mail, no interview, and no ID check. As a result, they can access benefits like Medicaid (1.3M) and get driver’s licenses. Crazy. (video)
• Trump with X. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• Well, now we know why the Democrats want to keep sending so much aid to Ukraine. I guess now we also see why Democrats were so silent over Ukraine making HIT LISTS of American journalists and politicians who opposed sending more aid to Ukraine. The Ukrainian flag should be banned from flying in Congress. I don’t want to see anymore US elected officials wearing a stupid Ukraine pin. Send them to the front lines if they love Ukraine so much.

• @WallStreetApes

• Glenn Beck says when he visits Washington, he’s told by Congress reps to leave his phone and electronics because “The CIA is monitoring everything that we're doing in Congress. They're monitoring all of us”. “We've been threatened behind closed doors — threatened by the CIA”. “I've been to Washington. I don't know how many times in the last five years I've had congressmen ask me, can you leave your cell phone outside? Let's go for a walk. You're carrying any electronics? Do you have an Apple Watch? No, I don't. Okay. And then they'll say, outside as we're walking, quietly, the CIA is monitoring everything that we're doing in Congress. They're monitoring all of us. And two of them have told me we've been threatened behind closed doors, we've been threatened by the CIA. That was a little scary to hear that. And I've heard it over and over and over again.” (video)
• PAID TO PROTEST positions are being posted on Craigslist. A huge amount of the new positions being posted everywhere ARE TO PROTEST “CASH PAID”. (pic)

• @zerohedge

• Yeah... hi, just checking in again here @federalreserve because, well, things have gotten a little bit out of hand. (graph)
• Trump Weighs Drone Strikes On Mexican Cartel Terrorists Amid Major Hemispheric Defense Push. 
• RFK Jr. Says He Will Tell CDC To Stop Recommending Fluoride In Municipal Water.
• The yuan is absolutely disintegrating. Expect 8 handle if tariffs go live at midnight. (graph)

• @LaraLogan

• It is amazing that people who are worried about the stock market do not seem bothered at all that the U.S. no longer makes gunpowder.

• @NicHulscher 

• BREAKING: 85-Million-Person Study Finds Increased Risks of Stroke, Heart Attack, Coronary Artery Disease, and Arrhythmia Following COVID-19 Vaccination (mRNA/Viral Vector). Stroke (+240% after 1st dose). Heart Attack (+286% after 2nd dose). Coronary Artery Disease (+244% after 2nd dose). Arrhythmia (+199% after 1st dose). This robust analysis compared over 46 million vaccinated individuals to a massive unvaccinated control group of nearly 40 million people—strengthening the evidence of harm. As each day passes, a new study is published that reveals the serious harms of the COVID-19 genetic countermeasures. They must be removed from global markets immediately.

• @matt_vanswol

• #BREAKING: The NC Supreme Court has BLOCKED a ruling demanding that 65,000 voters prove their identity after it was uncovered that some NC voters actually voted overseas without ANY FORM OF IDENTIFICATION. Allison Riggs, a democrat, won her NC Supreme Court race by 734 votes. (video)

• @catturd2 

• One of the biggest sellout frauds in US history. I have no doubt - Trump hater and snake Mitch McConnell sold her as a conservative to Trump to rush her nomination through just to use her as a plant to protect the deep state against Trump’s agenda. She’s a total bought and paid for leftist puppet.

• @DC_Draino

• “Cartels should stay in America”. (pic)

• @JimFergusonUK 

• REMINDER: VIKTOR ORBÁN WARNED US — MASS MIGRATION IS NO ACCIDENT. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán said it plainly: “The European Union has been captured by George Soros and the globalists.” This isn’t compassion. It’s engineered chaos. A deliberate strategy to destabilize European nations, flood borders, and erase cultural identity.Streets no longer safeCities overwhelmedLeaders silent — or complicit And the architect behind it? George Soros. 
• GLENN BECK: “THIS IS THE GREAT RESET… OF THE GREAT RESET.” “We elected Donald Trump because we didn't want globalism.” “He’s resetting the system — and it’s going to be America First.” “This is an economic revolution.” Forget Davos. Forget Klaus Schwab. The real reset is happening right now — and it’s RED, WHITE & BLUE. Globalism is cracking. Sovereignty is rising. Welcome to the Great American Reset. (video)

• @NiohBerg

• Amazing: Fed up New Yorkers are throwing dog sh*t at pro-'Palestine' disruptors. This is what you get for spending 18 months making normal life miserable for everyone. Well done, NYC. (video)

• @Sino_Market

• Source: China Poised to Unveil Six Major Countermeasures in Response to U.S. Tariff Threats. Niutanqin, a WeChat account affiliated with state news agency Xinhua: According to sources, China has prepared at least six major countermeasures against U.S. Tariffs: 1. Significant tariff increases on U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans and sorghum. 2. Banning import of U.S. poultry into China. 3. Suspending Sino-U.S. cooperation on fentanyl-related issues. 4. Countermeasures in the service trade sector. 5. Banning the import of U.S. films into China. 6. Investigating the intellectual property benefits of U.S. companies operating in China.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.75% to -1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.75 +23.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 84.75 +11.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 36.7 -2.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 34.0 +8.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -4.3%.

• S&P 500 futures -1.9%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -2.1%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is market neutral heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China's Trade War Escalation, Global Growth Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Weakness

  Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 49.8 +6.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 2.3 -73.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 39.5 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.5 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.8 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.4 +6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.17 -4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.66 +253.1%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$165.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.1 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 535.6 +1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 343.0 +34.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.3 -3.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 197.1 -5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 basis points -6.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.2 -4.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 223.0 -.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 112.77 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.1 -.4%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -28.75 basis points -6.0 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.5 basis points +7.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +3.25 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 637.0 +11.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 64.0 +3.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.34 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.2 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.8 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +4.1% -3.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.0 -.43:  Growth Rate +13.2% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.6 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.54% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.52 -.54: Growth Rate +21.0% -.2 percentage point, P/E 26.0 +1.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.08 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .14 -57.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +10.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.7% -5.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +4.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-11.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 49.8%(-7.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -250 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -385 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -192 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in my financial sector longs
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.6% 2) Alt Energy -2.4% 3) Biotech -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SOBO, VIPS, PDD, NE, GNK, LGIH, TX, SLNO, INGM, DNTH, AA, PCVX, ONON, PCVX, VTLE, AR, BABA, LEVI, VAL, ZTO, LMND, SQM, PRAA, BZ, RPM, GBX, SOC, IMAX, LI, MUR, RKT, RH, IRON, SBLK, W, JKS, ALB, MNSO, KALV and DQ

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AR 2) GPN 3) LEVI 4) LQD 5) KC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AA 2) GERN 3) CVRX4) SMTC 5) VIRT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLE 3) XLY 4) XLC 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +3.4% 2) Defense +3.4% 3) Insurance +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PCRX, CNR, CVNA, LOCO, BTU, ALHC, HUM, RYTM, HNRG, HCC, LOAR, PDI, TBBK, PDI, CVS, BWXT, AVGO, PCN, CCL, MRVL, CYBR, CUK, SATS, UNH, APP, PLTR, ANET, EIC, SATS, ARM, MELI, DB, RIVN, BA, SRAD, ARLP, PLMR, RBRK, REVG, BSTZ, NCLH, GOF, NVDA, PDO, NBXG, AMAT, SMFG, PAXS, SUPV, ANGI, SBGI, ETY, MRX, AAMI, LNG, IOT, JHG, PANW, GE, CSQ, BBAR, RA, DRVN, MUFG, BGB, PTY, GHY and ECAT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LVS 2) HOG 3) PRMW 4) PRMW 5) GPN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AGL 2) CRMD 3) PCRX 4) HUM 5) RYTM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLF 3) SOXX 4) XRT 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DAL)/.38
• (NEOG)/-.02
• (SMPL)/.40
  

After the Close: 

• (STZ)/2.28
• (PSMT)/1.44
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a -1.3% decline in Jan.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,748,570 barrels versus a +6,165,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,082,290 barrels versus a -1,551,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +248,430 barrels versus a +264,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.63% versus a -1.0% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• March 19 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, USTR's Jamieson Greer's testimony to House, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for April, (SNPS) annual meeting and the (WMT) investment community meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST