Thursday, April 10, 2025

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +22.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.0 +8.1
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 12.5% of Issues Advancing, 86.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .88 +417.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$387.2M
  • 10 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
  • 20.5% (-14.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.3 -4.5
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.3 -.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.3 -2.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,899.0 -.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 7.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -9.0
  • 1-Day Vix 43.2 -14.0%
  • Vix 38.6 +14.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.35 +28.6%

Wednesday, April 09, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @zerohedge
  • @NicHulscher
  • @GlobalMktOberv
  • @FreeSpeechAmer 
  • @MarioNawful
  • @mattgaetz 
  • @JimFerguson
  • UK GLENN BECK: “THIS IS THE GREAT RESET… OF THE GREAT RESET.” “We elected Donald Trump because we didn't want globalism.” “He’s resetting the system — and it’s going to be America First.” “This is an economic revolution.” Forget Davos. Forget Klaus Schwab.The real reset is happening right now — and it’s RED, WHITE & BLUE.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +4.0% to +6.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.75 -19.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 77.25 -7.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.3 +1.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.4 +.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +8.6%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.1%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.3%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Trade War Fears, Less Tariff Uncertainty, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 37.3 -28.7%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 2.1 -7.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.2 +31.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.7 +1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 +5.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.9 -16.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 -16.4%
  • NYSE Arms .24 -88.7%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$99.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -13.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 518.2 -5.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 348.0 +5.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.6 +10.0%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 211.4 +7.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 129.0 basis points +9.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.8 +11.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.8 -9.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 121.0 +7.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.3 +1.1%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.0 basis points +6.75 basis points
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -3.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 640.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 65.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.6%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.7 euros/megawatt-hour -7.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.6 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.7 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +4.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.70 -.30:  Growth Rate +13.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.9 -.7
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.43 -.09: Growth Rate +21.0% unch., P/E 25.0 -1.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.58 -50.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .64 +50.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 45.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.4% +40.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.4% -2.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 60.3% (+9.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 42.7%(-7.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,786 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -88 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1,585 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (KMX)/.66
  • (LOVE)/1.87
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The CPI MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • The CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for March.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 223K versus 219K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1884K versus 1903K prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • The Federal Budget Deficit for March is -$130.0B versus -$236.6B in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, WASDE report, 30Y bond auction, Cleveland CPI MoM for March, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report,  and the (DOW) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +51.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 -1.3
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 39.6% of Issues Advancing, 59.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .80 -62.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$219.1M
  • 2 New 52-Week Highs, 738 New Lows
  • 14.7% (-2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 20.1 -13.4
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 38.0 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.1 +.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,576.0 +1.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 5.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 61.5 -16.6%
  • Vix 49.0 -6.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 -7.4%

Tuesday, April 08, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @zerohedge
  • @LaraLogan
  • @NicHulscher 
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @catturd2 
  • @DC_Draino
  • @JimFergusonUK 
  • REMINDER: VIKTOR ORBÁN WARNED US — MASS MIGRATION IS NO ACCIDENT. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán said it plainly: “The European Union has been captured by George Soros and the globalists.” This isn’t compassion. It’s engineered chaos. A deliberate strategy to destabilize European nations, flood borders, and erase cultural identity.Streets no longer safeCities overwhelmedLeaders silent — or complicit And the architect behind it? George Soros. 
  • GLENN BECK: “THIS IS THE GREAT RESET… OF THE GREAT RESET.” “We elected Donald Trump because we didn't want globalism.” “He’s resetting the system — and it’s going to be America First.” “This is an economic revolution.” Forget Davos. Forget Klaus Schwab. The real reset is happening right now — and it’s RED, WHITE & BLUE. Globalism is cracking. Sovereignty is rising. Welcome to the Great American Reset. (video)
  • @NiohBerg
  • @Sino_Market
  • Source: China Poised to Unveil Six Major Countermeasures in Response to U.S. Tariff Threats. Niutanqin, a WeChat account affiliated with state news agency Xinhua: According to sources, China has prepared at least six major countermeasures against U.S. Tariffs: 1. Significant tariff increases on U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans and sorghum. 2. Banning import of U.S. poultry into China. 3. Suspending Sino-U.S. cooperation on fentanyl-related issues. 4. Countermeasures in the service trade sector. 5. Banning the import of U.S. films into China. 6. Investigating the intellectual property benefits of U.S. companies operating in China.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.75% to -1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.75 +23.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 84.75 +11.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 36.7 -2.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 34.0 +8.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -4.3%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.9%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -2.1%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is market neutral heading into the day.