Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Surging Inflation Expectations, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.3 -.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 -1.4% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .29 +14.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.1 +.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 146.4 +.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 96.1 +10.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 -.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.6 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 -12.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.8 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +13.7% +.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.31 +1.52:  Growth Rate +16.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.76% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 523.38 +8.59: Growth Rate +31.5% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 28.5 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 -28.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.9 -.2% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.5 euros/megawatt-hour +5.8% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% -1.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% -90.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.55 +30.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 60.8%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +740 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long