Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.9 -3.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.6 +.7%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .15 +10.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.4 -3.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 134.0 -3.1%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 82.8 -7.5%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.7 -.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.0 +4.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.0 +8.2 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(488 of 500 reporting) +13.1% +n/a percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 322.61 +n/a: Growth Rate +16.2% +n/a percentage points, P/E 21.3 -n/a
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.75% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +28.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 514.27 +n/a: Growth Rate +29.3% +n/a, P/E 28.9 +n/a
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -13.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 57.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.1 +1.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.8% -.6 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% +3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.05 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (+2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 66.2%(+10.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,400 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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