Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War De-escalation Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Transport/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.2 -6.5%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.3 +3.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .39 +6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.4 -2.9%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 189.2 -5.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 77.2 -8.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.8 -2.0 

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -5.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.9 +.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +103.6% -8.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 333.43 +5.43:  Growth Rate +20.1% +2.0 percentage points, P/E 19.8 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.0% +19.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 530.45 +1.62: Growth Rate +33.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 27.2 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 -12.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 162.6 +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.7 euros/megawatt-hour -4.3% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% -1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.99 -39.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 87.7% (+3.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 82.8%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,750 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +405 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long