Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.75 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 73.0 -6.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.22% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.5 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.47% -2.0 bps
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.6 -4.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +2.4%.
• S&P 500 futures +.93%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.4%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• IT HAPPENED. The conservative AfD party is now the LARGEST party in Germany in latest poll. This is a political earthquake.
• BREAKING: El Salvador has been upgraded to level 1 travel advisory, listing it as one of the safest tourism destinations on earth. In the summer 2020, El Salvador was listed as a level 4 “do not travel.” President Bukele has changed his country for the better. 
• Elon Musk. "When you have a decline in religion and increase in secular nature of society, for most people they need something to fill that void, and they adopt woke, that takes place of religion." (video)

• @MarioNawfal

• U.S. ADMIRAL: CHINA’S TAIWAN “DRILLS” AREN’T DRILLS—THEY’RE REHEARSALS. U.S. commanders say Beijing isn’t just showing off near Taiwan—it’s practicing for the real thing, and doing it with a production line on steroids. China’s churning out warships, missiles, and fighter jets at a pace the U.S. can’t match, outbuilding America 6 to 1 on ships alone. Admiral Paparo told Congress the threat is growing—and fast. Taiwan’s prepping, but the clock’s ticking.
• HEGSETH: CHINA CAN'T HAVE THE PANAMA CANAL. "It's in our direct U.S. interest to ensure that waterway is free and that our ships can transit freely." (video) 
• MADURO HITS ECONOMIC PANIC BUTTON AFTER U.S. TURNS UP THE HEAT. With U.S. sanctions squeezing Venezuela’s oil lifeline, Maduro just handed himself emergency powers—because what’s a crisis without some constitutional suspension?

• @WallStreetApes

• YES!! Elon Musk and DOGE are waking Americans up. Former Democrat voters now know they’ve been lied to and illegals were given social security numbers. “I can admit when I've been duped by the media. And damn if they didn't get me good with this one. I used to be one of those people that swore up and down that these illegal immigrants were not stealing your Social Security. They weren't on Medicare, they weren't on Medicaid. And we were wrong. (video)

• @zerohedge

• March Deficit Unexpectedly Tumbles To 5 Year Low As DOGE Cracks Down On Democrat Money-Laundering Schemes. (graph)
• White House Welcomes Controversial Blog Zero Hedge to Press Pool. 
• The trade war is becoming a theater war: China unleashing record state "plunge-protection team" buying in past 2 days to give impression the trade war is not crushing local stock market.

• @yashar

• NEWS. Chinese officials acknowledged in a secret December meeting that Beijing was behind a widespread series of alarming cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure. The Chinese delegation linked years of intrusions into computer networks at U.S. ports, water utilities, airports and other targets, to increasing U.S. policy support for Taiwan.

• @BillAckman

• Time is not China’s friend. Every U.S. company that sources products in China is in the process of finding alternative suppliers. Supply chains are time consuming and can be expensive and challenging to move. Once moved, they are sticky. Tick tock.

• @JackPosobiec

• BREAKING: 34 POLICE OFFICERS COME FORWARD TO SAY MINNEAPOLIS POLICE LIED ABOUT DEREK CHAUVIN, HE *WAS* TRAINED TO USE KNEE RESTRAINT. (video)
• China escalates war on Christianity, will ban foreign missionaries from spreading the gospel.
  

• @Breaking911  

• RFK Jr. says "we will know by September" the causes of autism. "There will be no bigger news conference," Trump says. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Remember the hell we went through to get Justice Kavanaugh appointed? It was a full media blitz to smear and destroy him b/c Democrats knew we were getting a solid 5-4 conservative majority on the court. But then ACB was confirmed so easily after him and only a few weeks before the 2020 election. It was a breeze. I was a little surprised - why did they fight tooth & nail against Kavanaugh to stop a 5-4, but barely fought back against ACB for a 6-3? Now we know why. ACB was their sleeper.

• @VigilantFox

• Kids are getting sicker than ever—Megyn Kelly and Dr. Mark Hyman just exposed why—it’s dark. It’s not bad luck. It’s not genetics. It’s the system—and it’s been hijacked. Dr. Mark Hyman laid out the facts: (video)
• ROGAN FLASHBACK: Guest is horrified to find out that 80% of Americans have Roundup in their urine. Even worse, 87% of kids tested positive for glyphosate exposure. Glyphosate exposure is linked to serious health problems such as: (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -4.75% to -2.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 +9.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 81.25 +4.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.25%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.0 -2.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.1 +4.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.9%.

• S&P 500 futures -1.4%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.7%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Overdone Rally Giveback, Technical Selling, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Falling

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 42.5 +26.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 3.8 +82.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.0 -8.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.1 +1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 -3.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.0 +17.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.10 +4.8%

• NYSE Arms .89 +423.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$285.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.8 +5.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 533.1 +4.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 330.0 -18.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.9 -10.6%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.5 -10.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 121.0 basis points -8.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -11.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 212.3 +5.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 118.8 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.0 -1.6%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.0 basis points -3.0 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -8.75 basis points -5.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 639.0 -1.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 +.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.4 -7.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.9 +1.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +4.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.59 -.11:  Growth Rate +13.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 +.8
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.24 -.19: Growth Rate +20.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 26.5 +1.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.79 +79.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .22 -42.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) +8.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.0% -2.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% -14.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.42% -7.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -8.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 63.4% (+3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.1%(+11.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,059 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -91 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +282 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -5.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -10.2% 2) Semis -9.9% 3) Banks -7.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HOOD, DX, KLAC, INGM, SN, X, RKT, SMFG, CHCT, LULU, BBY, IVZ, A, APLE, CHX, DD, CPRI, BTU, UCB, JHX, EOG, DNTH, LYB, INMD, CVNA, BC, DOW, NLY, OXY, SHOP, ALB, CHRD, BRKR, TSLA, JAZZ, SLB, ICHR, AR, NKE, AA, HELE, MU, CCL, RH, SNDX, VAL, SOC, MCHP, JKS, CIVI, APA, NE, MBLY, KMX and SEDG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) INFY 2) APA 3) KMX 4) DFS 5) HOG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKE 2) MU 3) SWKS 4) FLNC 5) VG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KWEB 2) XLK 3) IBB 4) XLV 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -3.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles +3.3% 2) Gold & Silver +3.3% 3) Shipping +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KROS, SKE, HMY, SMMT, GFI, DRD, BYRN, GDS, AU, PSMT, ALHC, AEM, AGI, ACT, KGC, FNV, HRTG, TAL, WPM, RGLD, TFPM, EGO, OR and NEM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APA 2) UDN 3) PRMW 4) KMX 5) TCOM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NXXT 2) SLNH 3) BYRN 4) LOVE 5) PSMT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) XLY 3) SMH 4) XBI 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLK)/10.29
• (BK)/1.50
• (FAST)/.52
• (JPM)/4.63
• (MS)/2.21
• (WFC)/1.23
  

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Feb.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 57.0 in March.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectation Index for April is estimated to rise to +5.2% versus a +5.0% expectation in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST