Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,282.7 +.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 39,142.2 -1.1%

• NASDAQ 16,286.5 -.6%

• Russell 2000 1,880.6 +2.7%

• NYSE FANG+ 11,111.6 -1.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 149.5 -.8%

• Wilshire 5000 50,114.4 +.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,441.5 -.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,736.0 +1.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.8 +3.2%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 219.6 -3.4%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,685.4 -.11%

• Transports 13,438.7 +.9%

• Utilities 1,020.5 +3.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 126.3 +5.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.1 +4.0%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 211.61 -.14%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 121.62 +1.96%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 531,172 +1.1%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 5.6 -21.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 13 +267

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -15.5 +19.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 139,595 -16.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,991,545 +8.4%

• Total Put/Call .91 -19.5%

• OEX Put/Call .94 -14.0%

• ISE Sentiment 113.0 unch.

• NYSE Arms .80 -35.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.0 +9.5%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.47 +42.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .68 +2.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 29.7 -27.2%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.38 -55.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 40.2 -6.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.91 -12.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.11 -11.0%

• Smart Money Flow Index 22,165.4 +9.3%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  35.2 -21.9

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.881 Trillion -1.8%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$26.336 Million

• AAII % Bulls 25.4 -10.9%

• AAII % Bears 56.9 -3.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 21.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 296.38 +4.0%

• Crude Oil 64.68/bbl. +7.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 209.88 +6.7%

• Natural Gas 3.25 -7.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +7.1%
  

• Heating Oil 215.2 +4.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 99.1 (1,000/metric ton) unch.

• Gold 3,326.9 +4.7%
• Silver 32.5 +4.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 432.4 +1.3%

• Copper 473.9 +7.9%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,725.0 USD/metric tonne -5.1%

• CME Lumber  573.0 -.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,458.1 +1.4%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton +.3%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast -2.2% +70.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9% +3.1 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.5 -18.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 432.2 -27.9%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $150.0 Billion($980.39 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$10.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(59 of 500 reporting) +6.8% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.95 +n/a:  Growth Rate +12.3% +n/a, P/E 19.1 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.45% -5.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +23.7% +n/a percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 416.88 +n/a: Growth Rate +20.6% +n/a, P/E 26.7 -n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 -6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .6 -10.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.8 +10.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 9.1%(-9.7 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 90.9%(+9.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 5/7

• US Dollar Index 99.2 -.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,770.3 +.76%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 84,435.0 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.79 -.5%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 -.1%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 52.25 unch.
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.33% -16.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.680 Trillion -.01%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.781 Billion +18.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.9 -.9%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 311.0 -2.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -6.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 -3.0%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.8 -7.6%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 197.4 -1.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 109.4 +8.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.2 -1.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.49 +1.6%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 118.3 +1.7%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% -10.0 basis points
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% +40.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% -70.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% -14.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.38% -11.0 basis points
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21% -7.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 1.0 basis point +2.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 +1.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.0 -4.0%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 283.0 -9.9% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 296.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 77.4 -7.8%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 183.6 -8.8%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 208.2 -4.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .73 +3.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,393.5B +.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 220,750 -1.1%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.2 +1.2%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.93% +23.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 267,500 -8.5%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.6%+100.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +17.0% +9.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $102.3M +2.6%

• Nationwide Gas $3.16/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,261.0 -.6%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,192.0/40 ft Box -3.2%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,110.7 +.33%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +9.1%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 85.0 +9.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 274,342 +.2%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,357,678 -14.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +3.2%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +9.5%

• Gold & Silver +8.0%
• Pharma +5.8%

• Energy +5.7%
  

• Biotech +5.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants -.3%
  

• Internet -.6%
  

• Software -1.4%

• Semis -1.6%
  

• Healthcare Providers -7.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (60)

• QURE, GPCR, CAPR, CAR, LLY, MGNI, DJT, MTSR, TRML, BMI, PLAY, BHVN, FIS, DLTR, SDRL, FIVE, VIST, VTLE, SMMT, EOLS, CLPT, HRTG, MRC, DAN, AMX, TIGO, VNOM, OZK, KRUS, FANG, LBRT, RTO, IDYA, NOG, HAL, GAP, AMR, SMG, PR, JHX, FWRG, CERT, NRIX, WHD, AEO, ASNDD, TSEM, EVER, STX, HDB, PHH, KROS, ZENE, IBN, SIBN, VTMX, BAX, LEVI, TTD and VRE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)

• MOH, DVAX, PENG, SKBL, WST, PGR, CORT, TECH, BRKR, SFNC, AOSL, FMS, ALGM, NSP, MMC, RHI, YUMC, ALHC, SG, AA, HUM, NVO, QXO, SNA, GPN, MAN and UNH

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US/Global Trade Deal Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.26% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 -2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .6 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.8 -1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +6.4% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.37 -.23:  Growth Rate +12.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.46% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.48 -.54: Growth Rate +20.7% -.2 percentage point, P/E 26.7 -.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.65 -15.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .66 -9.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 52.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9% +.8 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21 +16.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +6.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 56.9% (-4.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 48.8%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +273 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +205 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility, consumer discretionary, industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -7.0% 2) Gold & Silver -1.4% 3) Digital Health -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MP, AU, TFIN, ALHC, AA, QXO, NVO, SNA, HUM, GPN, MAN, BULL and UNH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) VIST 3) UNH 4) GPN 5) CSX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UNH 2) SNA 3) AA 4) ATNM 5) GOOG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) KRE 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +4.8% 2) Oil Service +4.6% 3) Energy +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QURE, GPCR, LLY, MGNI, CAR, CAPR, GJT, MTSR, FIS, BMI, VIST, DLTR, WHD, CLPT, RTO, OZK, SMMT, AMX, JHX, TIGO, PR, PBR, MTDR, IBN, HRTG, KRUS, HDB, DAN, FNB, SMFG, LOVE, PUK, STT, JBHT, DHI and HBAN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) UNH 3) HBAN 4) QURE 5) CSX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HTZ 2) LLY 3) BMI 4) VNOM 5) GTE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) XLU 4) XLB 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BOH)/.89
• (CMA)/1.16
  

After the Close: 

• (AZZ)/.98
• (CALX)/.13
• (MEDP)/3.07
• (WRB)/.98
• (WAL)/1.78
• (WTFC)/2.49
• (ZION)/1.19
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for March is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.3% decline in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The IMF meetings, weekly US retail sales reports, (ADBE) general meeting, (FSS) annual meeting and the (CHTR) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 -4.7
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 76.6% of Issues Advancing, 21.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 -34.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$81.2M
  
• 12 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 23.8% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.2 +.6

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.1 +3.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 219.9 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,368.2 -.38%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 19.0 (EXTREME FEAR) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 25.3 -27.7%
  
• Vix 31.7 -2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.0 -2.9%