Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BKE)/1.51

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• Durable Goods Orders for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a -1.4% decline in Dec.
• Durables Ex Transports for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Dec.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in Dec.
• 4Q GDP readings updated. 

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for March is estimated to fall to 54.6 versus 56.6 in February. 
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for March is estimated to rise +3.7% versus a prior estimate of a +3.4% gain. 
• JOLTS Job Openings for Jan. is estimated to rise to 6750K versus 6542K in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, Dallas Fed PCE for Jan., weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (HEI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 -2.3
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 26.4% of Issues Advancing, 71.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .69 -22.5%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$319.9M
  
• 47 New 52-Week Highs, 82 New Lows
• 51.3% (-4.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 32.2 -3.8

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 46.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 41.0% -8.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.1 -.7%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 98.0 -2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 531.75 +5.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.0 -1.6%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 140.4 -1.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 23.0 (Moved to EXTREME FEAR from FEAR) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 17.3 -8.9%
  
• Vix 26.6 +9.7%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.04 +10.6%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• US officials said that Iran had laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that 10 mines had been laid: WSJ. 
• *OMAN SAID TO EVACUATE SHIPS FROM MINA AL FAHAL OIL TERMINAL.
• Hundreds of drone attacks on Basij roadblocks and checkpoints across Iran. The scale is much larger than initial reports suggested. 
• AG Bondi Moves To Secure Military Housing After Threats, Joining Other Trump Officials.
• Moody's Cuts New York City's Rating Outlook Despite Mamdani Protests.
• Oracle is confirmed cutting 20,000-30,000 jobs but sources inside are saying the real number is closer to 45,000. I'm hearing this isn't just about AI data center costs. Word is they've been running pilot programs with AI agents doing database administration work for 8 months. One source told me a team of 47 DBAs in Austin got replaced by 3 senior architects plus automated Oracle Cloud Infrastructure management...
• Iran has targeted a China-owned and flagged ship and scared another. What does this tell us? Iranian command-and-control is likely destroyed, and the IRGC is operating as autonomous cells, often taking cues from public statements by Iranian officials—some of whom have said Iran won’t target friendly ships (Chinese). The cells apparently didn’t get the message and are now attacking friendly vessels (Chinese, Iraqi, Omani) or whatever moves. 
• Trump–Xi Summit Preview: What's At Stake.
• Oil Prices Jump, Stocks Dump As Oil Tanker Explodes In Persian Gulf, Hezbollah Hits Israel With Largest Missile Attack Of War.
• The App Store Accountability Act Is A Privacy Nightmare Disguised As Child Protection.
• *MORGAN STANLEY LIMITS REDEMPTIONS ON PRIVATE CREDIT FUND.
• Since the 2020 presidential election, Anthropic’s founders, board members and employees have made more than $200 million in political donations - 99.8 percent of which went to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton and other Democrats. Now this “Institute” is supposed to offer reliable policy?
• Breaking: The main data center of Bank Sepah, Iran's largest bank, was attacked tonight. The bank pays the salaries to all regime forces.
• UAE has faced more than 3× the number of Iranian drones and missiles compared to Israel.
• Massive fires continue to burn into the night at the Port of Salalah in Oman, with the blaze caused by Wednesday’s drone attack against the port by Iran having now spread to most if not all oil tanks at the MINA Petroleum Facility. (video)   
• Insane image from the bridge of a container ship arriving at the Port of Salalh in Oman earlier today, as flames engulf multiple port facilities and oil tanks at the MINA Petroleum Facility, resulting from several impacts by one-way attack drones launched by Iran.
• "Risk Of Attack Is Too High": US Navy Refuses To Provide Escorts To Ships Transiting Hormuz Strait.
• Credit & Crude Crack Bonds & Stocks, But Right-Tail 'Squeeze Risk' Remains. 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Oil and trade tariff uncertainty rattle global markets.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as Iran war continues to fuel oil volatility.
• The U.S. will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower energy costs during the Iran war, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday evening.
• Stock futures slip as traders watch oil prices, Iran war for effect on economy: Live updates.
• Trump admin to announce trade investigations, aimed at replacing IEEPA tariffs: Reports.
• Oracle's TikTok stake sits at just over $2 billion, filing shows.

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: Dubai's Creek Harbour hit. One of the city's newest waterfront developments, residential towers, hotels, the Dubai Creek Tower construction site. This is minutes from me, we felt the explosion. (video)
• Iran reportedly deployed suicide boats for the first time in this conflict, ramming two oil tankers near Basra in southern Iraq. One vessel belongs to a U.S. company. Drones. Missiles. Mines. UUVs. Now kamikaze speedboats. Iran is working through every weapon in its asymmetric arsenal. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Rep. James Comer reveals that Jeffrey Epstein’s accountant has now identified five clients who paid money directly to him. 1. The Rothschilds. 2. Les Wexner. 3. Leon Black. 4. Glenn Dubin. 5. Steven Sinofsky. (video)

• @epsteinsearchin

• Epstein tracked Jared Kushner in real time. Security clearance fights. Bailout attempts. Chief of staff rumors. 18 documents forwarded to jeevacation@gmail.com. Why was Epstein monitoring the president's son-in-law? (pic)
• FBI forced open Epstein's safe. Diamonds. Cash. CDs. Hard drives. A warrant issue made them leave. When they came back, it was empty. His accountant had staff pack it into suitcases. That man testifies today. (pic)
• Federal prosecutors wrote 162 pages of memos on Epstein co-conspirators they could charge. The corporate prosecution memo was "never discussed." Another memo "hasn't been discussed in three weeks." No one was charged. (pic)

• @nogps1

• Please help End This Crime. We are all very grateful to a group of lawyers @HorwitzLawFirm @RenzTom @NicolePearsonJD who have taken up the cause & need everyone's help to shut the Geoengineering programs down. Please submit photographs showing evidence to: http://thegeofight.com/the-fight.

• @TheSCIF

• Dominion Voting System's CEO lied multiple times during interviews on national television, and under oath in court about their machines and tabulators not being hooked up to the internet when they were, in fact, hooked up to the internet. They were also found to have wireless and remote access, parts directly from China, and connections to servers in other countries. Eric Coomer of Dominion was also filmed talking about their 3G and 4G internet capabilities in Mongolia. Why would they lie about their machines being hooked up to the internet if they had nothing to hide in the first place?

• @bennyjohnson

• Sen. Murkowski (R-AK) says she WON’T support the SAVE America Act as it is since it’d “disenfranchise an extraordinary majority” of rural Alaskans. She added, “While I support citizenship voting and voter ID, I want to make sure that it’s implementable.” (video)

• @truthbombprints

• Here is the list of GOP senators up for reelection in 2026. Most of them need to go. And this is generous calling 60% a passing Liberty score. (list)

• @FertilizerWeek1

• Around 47% of global #sulphur, 43% of #urea, 27% of #ammonia and 24% of #phosphate fertilizer global traded supply is at risk. The industry is in paralysis, and the full implications are not yet known. (graph)

• @VigilantFox

• REPORT: Florida is now barreling toward a digital ID system, and the countdown has already begun. In just 30 days, tech companies could be forced to verify the identities of millions of users, a move critics warn could quietly erase online anonymity across the state. For months, Governor Ron DeSantis publicly blasted digital ID, warning it would allow governments to control citizens and track their lives online. He even said such a system would “hit a brick wall in Florida.” Now Florida’s own law may be opening that door.

• @TrustDML

• The Save Act is dead. The GOP is jerking our chain. It has nothing to do w/ vote count or filibuster processes. It’s a concerted uniparty effort to END Trump; lose midterms, have him impeached, removed, and they hope MAGA dies. Anyone who disagrees is in denial. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• ER NURSE WARNS FENTANYL IS NOW HIDING INSIDE VAPES — 19 YEAR OLD DEAD AFTER ONE PENCIL TIP SIZED HIT. An ER nurse speaking directly to the camera says he worked a rare overnight shift and treated a 19-year-old who had been vaping with friends. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: The FBI has warned police departments in California that Iran could launch a retaliatory attack at the US West Coast using drones, per ABC News. Details include: 1. The alert said that the FBI "recently acquired information" of a potential "surprise attack". 2. Iran "aspired" to do this using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast. 3. Targets are "unspecified" but expected to be in California. 4. A spokeswoman for the FBI office in LA declined to comment.

• @jeffreytucker

• Trump says that his son-in-law Jared Kushner told him that Iran was about to attack so the US needed to move immediately to war. Recall that it was also Kushner who pushed Trump to shut down small businesses and schools for Covid. Receipts.

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Polling shows that a MASSIVE 84% of ALL VOTERS — including Democrat, Republican, and Independent — support requiring ID to vote. We've been saying this is an 80/20 issue, but it's getting closer to being a 90/10 ISSUE. @ScottPresler: "Anyone that is only for AMERICANS being registered to vote CANNOT be against the SAVE America Act!" (video)

• @disclosetv

• JUST IN - The Pentagon is assembling a 30-person team of investment bankers from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America to funnel $200 billion into defense deals over three years — Semafor.

• @silvertrade

• BREAKING - MASSIVE NON-NUCLEAR EXPLOSION IN QOM, IRAN. Lots of X posts claiming the US/ Israel has NUKED Iran, but this is NOT a nuclear explosion. It appears to be a 30,000lb GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• RINO FLIP FLOP: Cornyn’s staff wrote in his NY Post op-ed TODAY (March 11): “After careful consideration, I support whatever changes to Senate rules that may prove necessary for us to get the SAVE America Act and homeland security funding past the Democrats’ obstruction, through the Senate, and on the president’s desk for his signature.” But when asked directly TODAY to his face about the flip-flop: Reporter: “You previously said nuking the filibuster would be taking a wrecking ball to Senate rules. Is that no longer true?” Cornyn: “Um, I said I’d be open to reform..." Reporter: “What would you say to those who say you just changed your mind to win the president’s endorsement?” Cornyn: “I’d say, uh, that’s not true. Go away!” (puts hand over the camera) Classic Cornyn. (video)

• @WallStMav

• JUST IN: Massive solar panel farm in Indiana destroyed by storms. Indiana is a red state, yet its leaders have allowed Green New Deal policies. Now, toxic chemicals from the broken panels will poison the soil, making it unusable. The end result of solar farms is low energy, no soil, and higher energy costs for residents. Why is any red state allowing them? (video)

• @EnergyAbsurdity

• GAS LINES IN CHINA - Grok has verified that the video below is real: Thousands of Chinese drivers lining up at gas stations to fill their tanks before major price increases go into effect. This is what things looked like in the US lduring the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 when gas was rationed and drivers could only gas up on alternate days based on the last number on their car's license plates. This is what US drivers no longer have to worry about thanks to the #Shale Revolution and #Trump #EnergyDominance agenda. Be grateful. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 +5.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 +3.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%. 
• Crude Oil 93.40/bbl. +7.0% 
• Gold 5,173.3 USD/t oz. -.1%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.73 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 97.6 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.23% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.47% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.9 +4.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.55%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.81%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.81%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 +2.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.4 +.3% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .22 -9.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +4.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 138.7 +.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 78.8 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.4 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.5 +.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.93 +.35:  Growth Rate +17.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.77% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 524.71 +.62: Growth Rate +31.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.5 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 +16.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 57.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.5 unch. 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour +5.5% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.9% -2.6 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% +5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.46 +20.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.1% (+.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 63.8%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -440 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Social Media -1.8% 3) Regional Banks -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SYK, ARES, CRSP, TEAM, PCOR, BETA, SIG, CAG, IMTX, OCS, FIGR, ECO, UPST, BILI, SEDG, GRPN, DHT, GRO, AVAV, IFF, AMRX, INFQ, BLLN, ALOY, KSS, ORN, GNK, ZVRA, UAMY, LPG, FICO, BWLP, FWRD, HMY and CDRE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KOS 2) DG 3) TTEK 4) CAG 5) CPB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FWRD 2) BWEN 3) KOS 4) AVAV 5) CPB

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLC 3) IYW 4) COPX 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +2.7% 2) Computer Hardware +1.3% 3) Agriculture +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NVTS, PZZA, HIMS, NBIS, VELO, ANRO, PRCT, TSSI, UNFI, CRWV, DOCN, WOLF, ORCL, ALAB, FSLY, IREN, UNF, CF, OUST, BNTX, SERV, PTNR, VG, AOSL, KLAR, PI, IPI, PSIX, AXTI, RCAT, YPF, CORZ, AAOI, AMPX, AESI, PBR, EC, UMAC, ANAB, RUN, NTSK, PRE, WULF, MEOH, MNTN, SGRY, BP, OXY, MNTN, CVE, FLNC, LUNR, WBI, LASR, NOG, DAR, INR and TASK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UMC 2) OCGN 3) ASX 4) PZZA 5) GBTC 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DOMO 2) NBIS 3) PZZA 4) HIMS 5) OCGN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) KRE 4) XME 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume