Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.4% 2) Restaurants -2.3% 3) Telecom -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CHYM, ACAD, TGTX, LGIH, IPI, SIG, SKE, BIPC, BTI, UL, ATR, KSS, VOR, AU, CAG, CGON, OTIS, ARIS, BZ, ADMA, CTGO, ELE, KMTS, BW, TTD, SMTC, AFRM, MMUX, PAAS, AERO, QFIN, CTNM, CGAU, KLAR, GFI, DQ, RKLB, ARVN, QDEL, TME, SA, TMDX and SAIL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CSX 2) ORBS 3) CTMX 4) AMPX 5) BILI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CING 2) WB 3) LFWD 4) GEMI 5) CLPT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) GDX 3) SIL 4) ITB 5) REMX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +2.0% 2) Networking +2.0% 3) AI/Innovation +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SWMR, ANDG, RGC, KC, AXTI, AGRO, NN, FSLY, SEI, LITE, VIAV, AAOI, ADTN, CVI, DOCN, VG, ZTO, NVT, NET, COHR, RCAT, AVO, WSM, LULU, BTSG, TSEM, M, GPGI, NBIS, TNK, EDU, LOCO, TRMD, AMBA, GEO, GNK, WBI, ELPC, MEOH, MUR, ASO, DHT, FLNG, SUN, INSW, GLNG, DSP and STNG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REI 2) DUST 3) SIG 4) JBL 5) IVZ 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SWMR 2) ANDG 3) WSM 4) SNDK 5) M

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XBI 4) XLE 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/2.85
• (BABA)/11.24
• (CSIQ)/-.47
• (DRI)/2.94
• (SIG)/6.11 

After the Close: 

• (FDX)/4.15
• (PL)/-.05 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1851K versus 1850K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for March is estimated to fall to 8.5 versus 16.3 in Feb. 

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.2% decline in Jan.
• Wholesale Trade Sales for Jan. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in Dec. 

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 4Q. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB meeting, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 10Y TIPS auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Sidoti Small-Cap Conference, (KEYS) annual meeting, (BOX) analyst day and the B.Riley Investor Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.8 +1.8
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 31.5% of Issues Advancing, 66.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .72 -27.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$264.3M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 81 New Lows
• 49.1% (-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.6 +4.0

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 45.0% -.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% unch.
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 54.0% -2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 102.7 +1.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 532.25 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.6 +.4%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.8 +.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 20.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 17.4 -1.0%
  
• Vix 23.4 +4.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -2.0%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut with no real conclusion to the Iran war in sight. What does this mean for trade and foreign policy?
• Investors will be looking to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week for insight on how the US central bank is weighing a range of risks to the economy amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran.  
• The Trump administration vowed a legal fight to oust Anthropic from all US government agencies following a dispute over how the company’s AI technology would be used.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Big news. Increasingly, it looks like the Emiratis are going to go the distance with the US and Israel. Will others -- Saudis? Qataris? -- also hang in there for the long haul? I suspect so. 
• Urgent. Oil exports halted from Libya's Sharara field (the country's largest) after a fire breaks out in the main pipeline. - Production is now being gradually halted until a complete stop within hours.
• Details Of Fire On US Navy's Largest Carrier Much Worse Than Previously Known.
• California Democratic Lawmaker Seeks To Create Two New Muslim State Holidays.
• Bovino Out-Out: Top Border Patrol Official Plans To Retire.
• Kansas Introduces Medical Freedom Act; Would Impose $50,000 Fines For Vax Mandates Or Medical Discrimination.
• Hours ago, U.S. forces successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping in the strait.
• JUST IN: Reports from Dubai show more than a dozen interceptor missiles lighting up the night sky in the United Arab Emirates after Iran allegedly launched “advanced ballistic missiles,” reportedly targeting Dubai International Airport. Air defenses were activated as authorities moved to intercept the incoming threat.. (video)
• Iran Confirms Death Of Ali Larijani In Another Key Loss Of Leadership.
• As oil traders brace for a historic release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the form of a loan, they’re dumping prompt barrels and snapping up cheaper supplies further out when borrowers will need to repay the government...     
• The oil market has fragmented: Oil is now trading for $150/bbl in Asia (except the occasional sanctioned Iranian tanker) where demand destruction has started. China and India most pressured. Meanwhile it is still $100 in the US.
• Trump Admin Seeks Alternative Fertilizer Supplies. 
• Amazon Accelerates Last-Mile Delivery War With New 1-Hour Option.
• Greenwald: 9/11-Like Mass Casualty Attacks Could Trigger Permanent Emergency Measures.
• Watch: Humanoid Robot Returns Tennis Shots With 96% Accuracy In Simulation Tests. 
• "We're At War": Ecuador Deploys 75,000 Troops, Launches Anti-Cartel Missile Strikes; Colombia Warns "We're Being Bombed".
• Russia Seeks To Keep Iran 'In The Fight' As Pentagon Eyes Mass Kamikaze Drone Production. 
• Oil-Equity Link Breaks As Trump Says "War Over Soon"; Market Plumbing Starts To Creak.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump goes alone in the Iran war — as allies spurn requests to join.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Japan exports beat forecasts with 4.2% growth in February, but China and U.S. demand slumps.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to rise as Middle East tensions escalate after UAE energy attacks.
• Stock futures are flat as traders look ahead to Federal Reserve interest rate decision: Live updates.
• Jensen Huang says Nvidia has received orders from China and is 'restarting our manufacturing'. 
• Lululemon reports weak guidance as proxy battle, tariffs weigh on bottom line. 

• @Daily_MailUS

• CIA accused of 'poisoning the sky' with toxins as files expose secret weather control agenda.

• @MarioNawful

• Joe Kent wanted answers about Charlie Kirk’s assassination, now he's out. Back in 2025, Kent pushed to investigate whether foreign actors played a role in the killing. Kash Patel reportedly pushed back. Officials publicly denied any conflict at the time. But reports pointed to growing tension inside intelligence circles. Fast forward to today, Kent resigns as pressure builds inside the U.S. government over escalation with Iran. Taken together, this looks bigger than one case. It points to internal divisions spilling into the open.
• BREAKING: “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.” - UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell. He reportedly saw Iran’s nuclear offer during negotiations as serious enough to prevent escalation. Diplomats say real progress was being made, and the proposal was “unexpectedly substantial.” Britain viewed the later strikes as premature, believing diplomacy was still working.
• Why the world's most powerful navy can't secure a 21-mile gap. The Strait of Hormuz is only two shipping lanes wide. But here's the thing... Iran lined both sides with decades of preparation: naval mines, mobile missile batteries on the coast, swarms of fast-attack boats, and cheap drones that don't show up on radar until it's too late. The U.S. Navy was built to dominate open oceans against conventional fleets. Hormuz is a narrow alley where a speedboat with a missile can hit a destroyer before it has time to react. That's why three weeks in, oil is still stuck and the Pentagon says escorts are "too dangerous." Iran turned geography into a weapon the U.S. can't outspend. 

• @NicHulscher

• BREAKING: ALL major artificial intelligence systems — SuperGrok, ChatGPT-5, and Google Gemini — independently concluded that VACCINES CAUSE AUTISM after analyzing our landmark 82-page study. The 30-year lie that “vaccines don’t cause autism” has officially been TERMINATED. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• WOW. University of Arkansas chapter of Turning Point USA announces disaffiliation from the TPUSA national group one week after Erika Kirk Visits — Citing concerns about direction, and “losing sight of Conservative Values” President Dino Fantegrossi:
• Epstein and the intelligence blackmail operations, elite child trafficking, psychological operations, such as MKULTRA, and election fraud are the most important stories and agendas that need to be fully exposed and dismantled. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• HUGE: U.S. intelligence reports show that not only China was helping Joe Biden steal the 2020 election, but new intel shows that Ukraine was also helping Biden steal the 2020 election using the BILLIONS of taxpayer dollars that we sent over there from hard working Americans. (video)

• @LaraLogan

• “This is a very real danger. China is currently conducting operations to surround Taiwan. It’s the largest “exercise” ever. Additionally Korea and Japan both are not in a position to support a surprise attack. Serious concern right now. “ Gen Mike Flynn.

• @C_3C_3

• John Thune knows there will never be 60 votes to pass the SAVE America Act. Itll be tough to get 51 with VP Vance but he’s going to do a worthless vote with NO talking filibuster. Pure show. The Benedict Arnold of his time. (video)

• @EmeraldRobinson

• BREAKING: several election integrity experts who were hired to investigate election fraud inside @ODNIgov have been fired/removed recently - per @PatrickByrne. It looks like election fraud investigations led by @DNIGabbard are being stopped.

• @ValerieAnne1970

• Study involving 1.7 million children has found that Myocarditis & Pericarditis only appeared in children who had received COVID mRNA vaccines. Not a single unvaccinated child in the group suffered from these heart-related problems.

• @Unite4Freedom

• Data analysis showing real-time manipulation of 2026 Texas’s Democrat AND Republican Primaries. Unite4Freedom analysts have clear evidence of manipulation in early voting for BOTH parties’ 2026 primaries in Texas. We first discovered undeniable patterns of vote and voter injections and deletions in our Texas 2022 Election analysis and analyzed those real-time manipulations in their 2024 General Election (link to report). That pattern just repeated in the 2026 Texas primaries. (pic)

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: Officials say that President Donald Trump plans to take full control of the Strait of Hormuz by force, in a move that could also last several weeks.

• @Libsoftiktok

• BREAKING: William Kelso Flournoy, a man pretending to be a woman, was arrested in WA state after he allegedly R*PED an infant girl. Why does this keep on happening?!
• BREAKING: Elected city officials in Social Circle, GA, have CUT OFF the water to a new ICE facility. (video) 

• @EricLDaugh 

• @JUST IN: Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-PA) votes AGAINST advancing the SAVE America Act. You're protecting fraud, Sen. Fetterman. ILLEGALS VOTING IS NOT COMMON SENSE! (video)

• @illuminatibot

• A CIA senior agent with thirty years of experience: “An intelligence agent, now retired, very senior. He looked me in the eye and said, the truth of the matter is, we took the playbook for psychological operations and information warfare that we would use against our enemies, and we turned it against the American people to undo the 2016 election and to make sure they didn't elect Donald Trump in 2020.” (video)

• @ThePatriotOasis

• BREAKING: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) was the ONLY "NAY" vote from the Republican Party on the SAVE America Act Test Vote. Hundreds are calling for her to be primaried. Here is her Office Phone: (202)-224-6665. (video)

• @BrandonStraka

• A Colorado resident filmed heavy aircraft trails overhead while noting the state operates several permitted cloud-seeding programs used to increase snowfall and water supply. (video)

• @nickshirleyy

• Here is the full 40 minutes of my crew and I exposing California fraud, Minnesota was big but California is even bigger... We uncovered over $170,000,000 in fraud as these fraudsters live in luxury with no consequences. Like it and share it, the fraud must STOP. We ALL work way too hard and pay too much in taxes for this to be happening. These fraudsters have been able to defraud American taxpayers for years without any pushback from the public and politicians. It is time to EXPOSE IT ALL and end America's fraud crisis. (video)

• @OANN

• “I think they’re afraid of being disappeared… I think being murdered is what they’re afraid of—I think some of them truly are because of things they’ve seen.” Tennessee Congressman
  @RepTimBurchett says former intelligence and military officials with knowledge of classified programs have long feared being murdered or disappeared, pointing to the recent unexplained disappearance of retired U.S. Air Force Major General William McCasland. (video)

• @sayerjigmi

• For those who may not realize the scale of what is happening here... The Giving Pledge was founded by Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, and Melinda French Gates in 2010. As of 2025–2026, it represents approximately 256 billionaire signatories (who to their credit don't want to be known as "The Epstein Class") across 30 countries, with a combined wealth estimated at $600 billion. That is not a charity. That is a private government.
• What has been uncovered in the Epstein files is truly unprecedented. Among the thousands of documents released, I have identified at least 250 EFTA records each worthy of their own investigative article, and no fewer than 50 of which are each separately worthy of their own book. But the ultimate discovery transcends any single document: the exposure of philanthropic imperialism. This is the deliberate construction of a global governance architecture with no accountability structure, designed to keep charitable and profitable arms permanently at arm’s length from public scrutiny. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.5 -2.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 46.25 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Crude Oil 94.82/bbl. -1.4% 
• Gold 5,010.8 USD/t oz. +.1%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.76 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.58 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.1 -.4%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.20% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.53% -4.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.7 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.13%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Transport/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.4 -3.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.9 +2.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .29 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.2 -3.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 145.8 -3.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 81.3 +1.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.2 +4.8 

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.1 -.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.2 -15.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.7 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.87 +.60:  Growth Rate +17.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.81% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 526.72 +.56: Growth Rate +32.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +14.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.9 -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.7% +.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.93 +21.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 97.0% (+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 78.8%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +525 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long