Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC 
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @TheSCIF
  • @RepTiffany
  • Another Chinese student has been caught smuggling biologic materials into the U.S. from Communist China. This comes after two Chinese nationals were caught smuggling a dangerous fungus into the U.S. It’s time to hit the brakes on visas from China.
  • @nicksortor
  • WOW! Kari Lake was PERSONALLY calling Ruben Gallego out for misdeeds with young female staffers all the way back in 2024. A FULL investigation needs to be launched into this guy. He’s clearly hiding things. When a 20-year-old female staffer complained, he had her FIRED in retaliation. While Gallego was in the AZ House, his colleagues gave him the name “The Troll” because of how “creepy and degrading he was towards women”. And we can’t forget how Gallego ABANDONED his first wife while she was NINE MONTHS PREGNANT to sleep with a DC lobbyist. Congress needs to be PURGED of these scumbags. (video)
  • @BillMelugin_
  • NEW: CA gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer (D) releases an immigration platform that is radically left of Gov. Newsom. It includes: - Abolish ICE. - Put ICE agents in jail & “treat them like the mob”. - Bring those “kidnapped & detained by ICE back home.” - Give CA AG power to imprison ICE agents & their leadership. - Taxpayer funded legal representation & support for illegal aliens. - Ignore a SCOTUS ruling that allows ICE to utilize to use race, language, job, and location to contribute to “reasonable suspicion” for immigration arrests, and instead, “California should take matters into our own hands and extend legal protections to its residents, despite the federal governments failure.” “This is about our right as a state to protect our residents,” Steyer says.
  • @ScottPresler
  • If Senate Majority Leader Thune does NOT pass the SAVE America Act by the end of April, I’m asking you to vote AGAINST Senator Cassidy in the Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday, May 16th. I’m asking you to vote AGAINST Senator Cornyn in the Texas Senate runoff on Tuesday, May 26th. Give us what we want or we will take away what you have — peacefully.
  • @k1rallik
  • @rawsalerts
  • @redpilledhawk
  • @TheGeoFight_com
  • @jackunheard
  • @BRICSinfo
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
  • Crude Oil 91.64/bbl. +.4% 
  • Gold 4,841.7 USD/t oz. +.37%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.09%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.81 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 113.0 +.8%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.27% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.19%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Surging Israel/Hezbollah Ceasefire Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.8 -.6%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.77 +2.2% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -8.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.4 +.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.4 +.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 71.8 +2.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +1.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.0 +.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -2.4
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +31.4% -3.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 339.34 +.52:  Growth Rate +22.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 809.13 +.70: Growth Rate +103.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.6 +.4 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.5 +.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.6 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.7% +.6 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.56 +11.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 99.1% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 92.8%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +470 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +205 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.6% 2) Gold & Silver -1.8% 3) Construction -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SHG, AGRO, SPIR, BC, LCII, WAB, LWLG, ASML, WULF, SWK, LII, CARR, ANL, CAR, PATK, BAP, IFS, SEDG, PII and DOO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RSP 2) CARR 3) RGTI 4) ASHR 5) USB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CARR 2) WULF 3) AOS 4) CNH 5) SEDG
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) IGV 5) XOP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Software +4.5% 2) Cyber Security +3.0% 3) Gambling +2.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XNDU, MRLN, QBTS, IONQ, NEXA, SMR, UPST, UAMY, RGTI, TEM, BBNX, ROOT, FSLY, MLYS, TEAM, FIG, HOOD, YSS, OWL, FUBO, LBRX, WAY, OKLO, BETR, LEGN, ZM, EQH, NOW, AEO, AFRM, TSLA, ANDG, BAND, ZS, HUBS, UMAC, ETOR, UMAC, BOX, SNOW, PCOR, BZ, FLYW, SYRE, IRDM, ZLAB, PZZA, NNE, CRDO, SION, MS, SOFI, SYM, INFQ, VFC, KODK, OOMA, RLAY, BVS, CEPT, SIMO, RVMD, NKE, MANE and LGN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SGHC 2) FHN 3) ASHR 4) NB 5) EWJ 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IONQ 2) QBTS 3) HOOD 4) BULL 5) VNCE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) SOXX 3) XLV 4) XBI 5) ARKK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABT)/1.14
  • (BK)/1.94
  • (SCHW)/1.39
  • (CFG)/1.09
  • (KEY)/.41
  • (MAN)/.49
  • (PEP)/1.54
  • (PLD)/1.49
  • (TRV)/7.07
  • (USB)/1.14 
  • (HTLD)/-.13
  • (TSM)/na 
After the Close: 
  • (AA)/1.50
  • (CNS)/.81
  • (NFLX)/.76 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The NY Fed Services Business Activity for April.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 213K versus 219K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1810K versus 1794K prior.  

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • Capacity Utilization for March is estimated at 76.3% versus 76.3% in Feb.
  • Manufacturing Production for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Miran speaking, IMF Meetings, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (HPQ) annual meeting, (HUM) annual meeting, (PPG) annual meeting, (FUL) annual meeting, (TXN) annual meeting, (SCHW) business update, (SNPS) annual meeting and the American Association for Cancer Research Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.5 +1.0
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 51.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .67 -61.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$225.8M
  • 57 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
  • 57.4% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.6 -2.0
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 76.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
  • Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 76.0% +45.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 31.0% unch.
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 42.0% +2.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 111.9 +.7%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 93.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 499.0 +.75 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.8 +.6%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 143.9 +.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (NEUTRAL) +7.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.7 -14.4%
  • Vix 18.0 -2.2%
  • Total Put/Call .79 +17.9%